CHARTLINES (tm)

Gold testing underneath resistance - believe it or not: chart views

2012-02-01T19:33:00.003-05:00

Gold should be in a bullish pattern due to cycles and fundamentals. However, it's actually still under important resistance right now, so the KI$$ way to play it is to pare off longs and/or add hedges/protection, or maybe even cash out if feasible. Then wait to see if it can get above resistance. Let's take a look:

The daily chart of $GOLD I've annotated to show that it pushed over an important trendline - yaay! But is both backtesting a prior support uptrend line it had broken under, and also is just under the lows of the most recent monthly highs from late 2011. This means both trendline and price resistance.

The indicators are strong, so that's good. But be aware that some traders may try selling or shorting from this resistance area. There may even be some who are fundamentally bullish, but think it's ready for a wave-2 pullback, or even deeper correction or consolidation before heading higher again.

On my weekly chart, below, you can see that price almost touched a Fibonacci .382 retracement level back to prior swing lows. Maybe price needs to actually touch that (or perhaps even work on a 50% retracement level), as marked on my chart - perhaps $1512, or even down to the $1400's. Personally, I think it might only provide a consolidating pullback to a higher low before resuming its path upward. But it will be prudent to watch this resistance area very carefully for clues.

One final note: if gold indeed does drop again, whether to a higher or lower low, it is possible that it might trace a "Larusso" or "Wolfe" wave pattern. I'm more familiar with Elliott Wave, in which case the pattern might be deemed an ABC flat (completed), a zigzag X (completed), and then perhaps another zigzag down to complete the correction. First we'll have to see what occurs from this resistance area, i.e., underneath the $1760's.

What's up - er, down with crude oil?! Chart views of USO, $WTIC

2012-02-01T18:55:00.005-05:00

Crude oil has been staggering up to and falling back from resistance for a long time now. Then over the past couple of weeks, it was making a pattern that could have been a bullish descending wedge (ending diagonal triangle) that would send it thrusting upward in a new wave significantly higher. But wait - maybe it's a bearish (leading diagonal) instead?

Today I tweeted saying that the structure may not be a bullish wedge but a leading diagonal - for those who don't know Elliott Wave, just take my word for it right now. Main thing, the intraday drop today looks like it may have violated support, at least on the etf (USO) chart I was watching.

The daily chart of $WTIC shows from a bigger perspective that it's pulling down from resistance again, and the indicators are sagging. If it continues dropping and picks up speed, perhaps it's working on a "C" wave down to test $62 in order to complete a larger second-wave pullback. That would allow it to remain bullish and rise from $62 to higher highs and eventually new all-time highs.

As for my monthly chart, below - hey, I can still spin an uber-bearish scenario, but why bother - there is plenty of time to see how this plays out. For now, it looks like the KI$$ way to play it is to remain defensive (or at least not unprotected long) crude oil, unless it can manage to move above resistance. Resistance is definitely in the $103-104 area, and may also lie along the descending trendline that price briefly poked over.

If it really is going to drop, then it should at least test $86 for approximately half-way back to the most recent major swing lows. Then again, if it really is a wave C drop, the move should be quick and accompanied by the rest of the indicators joining to show real weakness. That's something that should be apparent, if this really is going to be a serious down-wave. Otherwise, we'll see price only gingerly test down to prior swing low levels, and interim retracements in the lower $90's and maybe mid-$80's.

U.S. dollar and VIX testing support levels (which may be temporary): chart views

2012-02-01T18:20:00.006-05:00

Both the U.S. dollar ($USD or the ETF, UUP) and the volatility index ($VIX or the etf, VXX) moved lower today. Let's take a look, however, especially since the dollar pushed upward this afternoon after poking that low. On the $USD chart below, I've marked several batches of Fibonacci levels, and some preliminary channel lines. While the UUP tested a 50% retrace to its most recent swing low, the $USD dollar index only tested the 38.2% retrace to its comparable swing low. If it were to go to its 50% retracement, that would put it at about 77.60.

Here's the chart, which I'll discuss more, below:

There's a band between 77.60 and, lower down, 76.50, and depending on how fast $USD might descend, it could hit anywhere in the band and still get support from the lower uptrending line I marked as a parallel channel line. Furthermore, based on Fibonacci setups, there's a potential "triple crown zone" Fibonacci cluster if $USD were to fall into that band, which could support another strong rebound and move to higher highs by the dollar index.

If that happened, then of course it would have to go lower than it went today. That could happen if the stock market is only going to go a pullback before testing to higher levels, along with the euro. I do have a theory that the euro could test as high as $135, or alternatively test down to 125 then rebound to 135 (and then drop to 115) - we'll see! Main thing here is, we need to see whether or not the dollar index can sustain a move higher than today's low and Fibonacci test (corresponding to about 21.96 in UUP). If it falls under these levels, then it may well test much lower before getting support from that Fibonacci cluster and uptrending channnel.

Also notice that there had been some real negative divergence in $USD before it peaked and rolled over. That's another reason it may need further consolidation and eventually a lower test, before turning upward again.

There is another interesting point about the $USD chart. Notice that the low today backtested to a descending trendline that it previously had broken above. This is one reason why the dollar index may not necessarily go lower; or if it does, it could actually do so by sliding down that shallow descending line. However, I'm not so convinced it would do the latter, i.e., by remaining above but sliding down that line. Normally once there is a backtest, either price uses it to rebound, or it would just break back under that line - that's why I think if $USD rolled over downward again, it would be more likely to go to 77.60 and test that Fibonacci cluster zone and uptrending green trendline.

As for the volatility index, there is a very small potential reverse head and shoulders on the $VIX which is better seen on the hourly chart. Maybe that could support a VIX move up before another test down. Yet you can also see on my daily VIX chart below that it's testing an area with a lot of potential support.

Also remember that before a significant stock market top, we will expect to see VIX make a higher low. That doesn't really seem happening here. So on the one hand we might see VIX rebound just because of the channel and support levels. But in the weeks ahead, we will also want to see if the stock market makes higher highs, and if so, whether it does that along with a higher VIX low.

Stock market toying with potential top: Andre Gratian's Turning Points update 1/30/12

2012-01-31T07:19:00.007-05:00

The stock market has reasons to top in this time-and-price area, although it might be merely stalling rather than truly topping. For insight into this, here's Andre Gratian's latest Market Turning Points update. (He had computer trouble that prevented his usual weekend update a couple of days ago - so he's sharing his expanded version of an evening update after yesterday's market close - thanks again, Andre!). You can get more info about Andre's work at his website (including his intraday update subscriber series), at http://www.marketurningpoints.com/. And now, Andre's update (click any of his charts to see it as a larger image):

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MARKET TURNING POINTS
by Andre Gratian

MARKET SUMMARY
January 30, 2012

SPX 1313.01 -3.32
QQQ 60.45 +.05
Weekly trend: up – ending?
Daily trend: SPX unconfirmed sell – QQQ no sell signal
Hourly trend: Trying to turn back up. No buy signal yet.

Point & Figure & Fibonacci projections -

UP: SPX Potential targets: 1336 -- 1333 may be the best that the SPX can do.
QQQ has a legit (near-term) count to 61.50, but may fall short of reaching it.

Down: Top may not be complete

Comments:

My heading for the newsletter this past week-end was going to be: “UNCONFIRMED SHORT-TERM TOP” – and after today’s trading, it remains that way. The QQQ may have to weaken before the SPX can trade lower and give a confirmed sell signal. I had already written the “Market Overview” and will reproduce it here:
-

Last week’s activity added to my suspicion that the SPX is ready for a pause.
After meeting the extreme near-term Point & Figure projection of 1322, the
index went into a small re-accumulation pattern which projected to 1336 when it
was completed. After the Fed announced its intention to extend the low interest
rates period to 2014, another wave of buying took prices to 1333.47, but could
go no farther and started to retrace. Friday was mostly and extension of the
consolidation that started the previous day with an attempt at resuming the
uptrend after 13:00 ET. There has been enough consolidation to allow the SPX to
re-test its former high but, with a small cycle bottoming on Monday, more
consolidation could take place.

Or, we could first decide to re-test the 1307 low. SPX would need to have a decisive break below 1306 to give a sell signal . However this plays out, it looks as if we are forming a short-term top.
Certainly, it could develop into something more, but when we look at the advance
from 1075, and then from 1159 and 1203, each advance denotes market strength,
including the last segment. With all this strength it is difficult to see how we
could be starting an intermediate correction without first seeing more obvious
signs of distribution.

EW theorists had expected that the SPX would make an A-B-C (zigzag) pattern from 1075 to complete minor wave 2. Zig ended at 1292 and Zag started at 1159. A cursory analysis would see the move from 1203 as a wave 3, to be followed by wave 4 and 5. If so, it is likely that we may have completed wave 3 and started wave 4 after which, we should form a much more consequential top at the end of 5 that would lead to an intermediate correction.
If this turns out to be the pattern, we should only be looking for a short-term
correction at this time.

So, how much of a correction? Since the top is not complete, there won’t be a reliable P&F projection available until it is. But we can guesstimate with Fibonacci retracement measurements. A .382 pull-back from 1203 would take the index down to the level of the 1292 peak where it could find support. If it decides to go lower, a 50% retracement would take it to about 1245, which is the level of the early December peak (wave 1 from 1259). Of course, if we are making an incomplete impulse wave from 1159, there should not be an overlap, so the move would have to stop higher.

One more note! There are some strong Fibonacci projection converging around 1376. We’ll keep that in mind for the top of wave 5 from 1159 -- if the above analysis is correct.

As you can see below, some of the contrary indicators woke up today. All three (VIX, TLT and UUP) were up for the day. I have comments next to each one. They all appear to be getting ready for a short-term reversal which would help to confirm the short-term top in equities.

The leading indicator is only neutral at this time.

VIX: (19.40) Threatening its intermediate trend line again, but probably not quite ready to overcome it.

UUP: 22.07) Woke up, but still below its short-term trend line.
TLT: (119.42) Challenged its down trend line and was also repelled.
GLD: (168.12) Fibonacci suggest about 170. High, so far, 169.07.

Charts (see below):

Andre

Don't count U.S. Treasury bonds out of their bubble yet

2012-01-29T20:54:00.004-05:00

After I counseled against shorting US bonds recently, they did a nice drop - ouch! But since have recovered, and retain their P&F (and Fibonacci) target to $150. Notice in the chart below that price didn't break down from the range of recent months. The answer may be related to what's ahead for stocks, not to mention Fed efforts to keep rates low (and deflation).

I don't intend to pontificate in this post about whether stocks will weaken in a manner that drives more demand for bonds, at least US Treasuries. We just have to see whether or not that'll be part of the equation. Corporate bonds may do well too, but as I posted recently, their chart position is not as positive. KI$$ investors and swing traders regarding $USB should just keep an eye on the support level tested during this range. The indicators are swinging positive again. So don't rule out $USB making another effort to reach $150.

The technical positives include that the 200-day moving average is still rising. The sideways range has been stalling the $USB, and it should get lift from this approaching upward curve of the 200-dma. Price also notched above the 50-dma again. The StochRSI has moved above its midline. The other indicators can easily turn positive, in confirmation, with another move up in price.

The sideways range, some traders call a "slim Jim" and others may see as a form of triangle, has seen the indicators hang in without deterioration. It looks like working off a previously overbought condition via time rather than price. As a potential triangle, that can support a target to $150 in the long US bond. Assuming it reaches that level, or just above, in a relatively fast thrust upward, it'll be a good long trade from the breakout. After that, it may provide a very rewarding short trade on a reversal back down from testing $150 in $USB. So let's see if it plays out this way.

ChartsEdge 1/30/12 week forecasts for equities and gold

2012-01-29T09:42:00.002-05:00

It's too soon to know if we'll see "a top" this week in the stock market, but we may get a pattern that could be a precursor - anyway, below are Mike Korell's ChartsEdge cycle-based forecasts for equity indices and gold (thanks again, Mike!). These are mainly a guide for highs and lows, not necessarily absolute price levels. Their month- and quarter-ahead guidance, along with daily forecast charts, are reserved for subscribers. ChartsEdge incorporates computer-analyzed cycles, pattern recognition, data on solar cycles, geocosmics and geomagnetics.
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Objective Elliott Wave counts tracking strong "risk on" markets: Tony Caldaro's 1/28/12 update

2012-01-28T14:28:00.002-05:00

The overbought condition of the stock market finally produced a hiccup for many indices last week. Tony Caldaro shows what that's likely to mean for U.S. and global stock markets, and comments in this weekend update on bonds, the U.S. dollar and other currencies, gold and precious metals, crude oil and other commodities (thanks again Tony!). You can also find his daily updates via his tweets as @OEWtony on Twitter, linking to his OEW website http://caldaro.wordpress.com/, or right here in the OEW feed at lower right side of the page):
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the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on
January 28, 2012
weekend update

by Tony Caldaro

REVIEW

US markets made a new uptrend high on thursday, but ended the week mixed. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.05%. Foreign markets were higher: with Asia +1.5%, Europe +0.7% and the DJ World index +1.2%. Economic reports were quite mixed with negatives outpacing positives 6 to 5. On the downtick: pending/new homes sales, durable goods, leading indicators, the M1 multiplier, and weekly jobless claims rose. On the uptick: FHFA housing prices, consumer sentiment, the monetary base, the WLEI and the GDP. Next week we will get reports on Case-Shiller, the Chicago PMI, ISM and nonfarm Payrolls.

LONG TERM: bull market

We continue to observe technical improvement supporting a bullish outcome to the second half correction of 2011. The three wave advance from early October looks impulsive, is not showing any tendencies of a bear market B wave rally, and just thursday the SPX was only 2.8% below its May 2011 Primary wave I high and the DOW was less than 0.2% below its high. The monthly chart below displays a rising RSI which looks similar to the 1990 and 1998 advances, and not the 2002 and 2008 bear market rallies.

The weekly chart is displaying bullish characteristics as well. With the RSI hitting overbought and the MACD rising above neutral. Many of our other technicals indicators are bullish as well. The NYSE now has 65% of its stocks above their 200 dma, while bear market rallies usually top between 40% to 50%. Market breadth is making new bull market highs, along with five of the nine SPX sectors. The DOW displays 87% of its stocks above their 200 dma, and the VIX continues to decline in the second downtrend from its secondary high in early October. Volume, however, remains a bit light and will probably pick up after the SPX/DOW make new bull market highs.

Our long term count continues to suggest Primary waves I and II completed in May11 and Oct11, at SPX 1371 and 1075 respectively. Primary wave III has been underway since that October low. Primary III should consist of five Major waves with waves 1 and 2 already completed, and Major wave 3 underway now.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1333

The daily chart displays Major waves 1 and 2, off the SPX 1075 Primary II low. Major 1 topped in October at SPX 1293, and Major 2 bottomed in November at SPX 1159. The current uptrend, from the SPX 1159 low, is taking a lot more time to unfold. Its first important rally was to SPX 1267, which we labeled Minor 1. Next a pullback to SPX 1202, which we labeled Minor 2. Then a gradual rising wave to thursday's SPX 1333 high, which we're labeling Minor wave 3. Nearing that high the market hit extremely overbought and RSI momentum has started to decline. With Minor 1 travelling 108 SPX points, (1159-1267), and Minor wave 3 already 131 points, (1202-1333), it may be time for a Minor wave 4 pullback. Then a Minor wave 5 to new uptrend highs.

While Minor 1 only took nine smaller waves, five Minute waves, to unfold. Minor wave 3 has taken 17 smaller waves, five Minutes waves, to unfold. The longer a wave takes to unfold the more complex its underlying pattern. Should Minor wave 4 be underway now we would expect about a 50 point pullback from the SPX 1333 high. This would represent a 38.2% retracement of Minor wave 3, while Minor wave 2 retraced a larger 61.8% of Minor 1. And, since Minor wave 2 took two weeks to unfold in a complex pattern. We would expect Minor 4 to take about one week to unfold in a simple pattern. This would be wave alternation at work. Maximum downside support would be around SPX 1267.

SHORT TERM

Support for the SPX remains at the 1313, 1303 and 1291 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1327, 1347 and the 1363 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week rising to neutral from an oversold condition. Our very short term count from the Minor 2 low at SPX 1202 displays: Minute wave i, (1243), Minute ii, (1230), Minute iii, (1297), Minute iv, (1278), and potentially Minute v, (1333). This pattern displays that Minute iii was 1.618 Minute i, and Minute v is nearly 0.618 Minute waves i thru iii. During this entire six week advance the largest pullback was 20 points. After thursday's SPX 1333 high the market pulled back 21 points to 1312 on friday. This suggests a larger wave, or Minor wave 4, is underway.

The technicals currently support this view. There are negative divergences up to the hourly charts, and declining momentum on the daily chart. As noted above, a pullback now to the lower end of 1291 pivot's range would fit the uptrend pattern quite well. Then a Minor wave 5 should start taking this uptrend to higher highs. A decline into the lower end of the 1313 pivot range would be additional evidence Minor wave 4 was underway. Should the market rally above SPX 1333 before a Minor 4 unfolds, then it is likely Minute wave v is extending. Should the market drop below the 1291 pivot range, (1284-1298), then it should find support at the upper range of the 1261 pivot. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were all higher on the week, gaining 1.5%, with the exception of China which was closed for the New Year. China has not confirmed an uptrend.

The European markets were mostly higher on the week gaining 0.7%. All indices are in uptrends.

The Commodity equity group were all higher gaining 2.2%. All are uptrending.

The uptrending DJ World index gained 1.2% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bonds strengthened after the FOMC meeting, remain in an uptrend, and gained 1.2% for the week.

Crude is still uptrending gaining 1.3% on the week.

Gold is close to confirming its uptrend, Silver and Platinum already have, and gained 4.1% on the week.

The USD continues to weaken losing 1.7% on the week. The EUR gained 2.2%, and the Yen (+0.4%) remained in an uptrend despite some recent weakness.

NEXT WEEK

Busy economic calendar ahead this week. Monday kicks it off with Personal income/spending and PCE prices at 8:30. On tuesday: Case-Shiller, the Chicago PMI and Consumer confidence. Wednesday we have the ADP index, ISM manufacturing, Construction spending, and Auto sales. On thursday: weekly Jobless claims and Q4 Productivity. Then on friday the Payrolls report, Factory orders and ISM services. The FED has one extra activity scheduled: FED chairman Bernanke's congressional testimony on thursday at 10:00. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS:http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987

McClellan stock market warnings as S&P 500 retests Fibonacci-doubling 1333

2012-01-28T07:52:00.000-05:00

The S&P 500 index ($SPX) retested 1333 this week which is a Fibonacci doubling of the 666.79-ish low it touched in early March 2009. Meanwhile, early warning indicators are signaling to be on watch for a correction in the stock market. The upcoming week may not start a big reversal, but we could see movement that sets up a reversal that will have more effect the following week. The market can move either higher or in a choppy fashion. I've got an old Fibonacci target of $62 for the QQQ so I don't rule out that we'll see it, sooner or later. But both the Dow Industrials and the SPX are having trouble bettering their 2011 highs, and this divergence goes along the the warning that the outlook isn't as rosy as many think.

My annotated chart of the SPX shows the stochastics have curled down, and the 1333 test on Thursday also encompassed a test of 1327 which is a potentially significant Fibonacci price extension. Similarly, 1307 is the Fibonacci .78.6% retrace to SPX's 1370 high of last year, making 1307 a level to watch as well.

Here's the McClellan chart I've configured (at Stockcharts.com) with my markings. The McClellan Oscillator continues to struggle showing negative divergence, and the Summation Index (while high which is generally positive) is now in overbought territory:

And here's the Oscillator chart McClellan shows at their own website, at http://www.mcoscillator.com/market_breadth_data/:

Now, here's a quote from McClellan's January 27 "Traders Like QQQ A Little Too Much - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial", about the Nasdaq 100 ETF, the QQQ, getting ripe for a pullback:

Some sentiment indicators work by analyzing what people say, such as polls and sentiment surveys. Others work by analyzing what people actually do, and I tend to like those more.
....
The current number of [QQQ] shares outstanding is not at an all time high, but it is the highest we have seen since all the way back in 2006. And it is way above the upper 50-1 Bollinger Band, indicating that traders and investors are getting a little bit too interested in being invested in the QQQ. That overly bullish sentiment condition begs for at least a short term pullback, to reintroduce people to the idea that stock prices actually CAN go down.
....

See their chart showing and comparing the QQQ price and number of QQQ shares created, and full article describing this, at: http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/traders_like_qqq_a_little_too_much/

Important week on watch for cycle crest: Raymond Merriman's 1/30/12 week comments

2012-01-27T20:04:00.003-05:00

Signs are cropping up that the stock market could crest a significant top this week (which can mean a bullish, or choppy, week). These include work of others I tweeted in the past few days (Marty Chenard on the VIX, and Alex Roslin on COTs Timer blogspot), and today @AlmanacTrader writing about a potential Three Peaks and a Domed House. Let's get perspective from Raymond Merriman in his preview comments (thanks again, Ray!). These discussions of stocks, bonds, currencies, precious metals, crude oil, and other financial and economic matters are in addition to his analyses of other countries' markets, economy, and the social and political climate. Ray also provides detailed paid subscription services (daily, weekly and monthly) for the various markets, at his website always at the right side of the page. Here are Ray's comments for the upcoming week, from his site at Merriman Market Analyst - MMA Cycles Weekly Preview Comments:
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MMA Comments for the Week Beginning January 30, 2012

Written by Raymond Merriman

Review and Preview

We thought last week would be an interesting week, based on the Sun's T-square to the Jupiter-Saturn opposition (January 19-22), the new moon in Aquarius January 23, and Mars turning retrograde on January 24, and it was. Nearly every stock index we track made a new multi-month high, but not all did so at the same time.

On the prior Friday, January 20, the Zurich SMI Index soared to 6213, its highest level since July 8, 2011. On Monday, January 23, the Netherlands AEX raced up to 323.83, its highest level since August 2. On January 26, the London FTSE touched 5806, its highest point since August 1, And on Friday, January 27, the German DAX went to 6574, its highest level since August 4.

In Asia and the Pacific Rim, the pattern was not quite as dramatic. The Hang Seng of Hong Kong rallied to 20,590 on Friday, January b27, its highest mark since September 1, 2011. Friday was also the weekly high in the Australian All ordinaries, China's Shanghai, and India's Nifty indices. But those highs did not take out the highs prior to November 2011. Japan's Nikkei index made a new 2-month high on Wednesday, January 25 and Russia's MICEX index made a monthly high a day later. Some of these indices look poised to resume a decline next week.

In the Americas, the big story was the Dow Jones Industrial Average. After Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and the Fed announced that they would now keep the Fed funds interest rates near zero percent for three more years, the DJIA soared to 12,842 on Thursday, January 26, almost taking out last year's high of 12,876. The NASDAQ Composite soared to 2834, its highest level since July 26. The Bovespa of Brazil and Merval indices of Argentina also took off to their highest levels since June and October respectively.

As exciting and buoyant as the stock indices were, they paled in comparison to Gold and Silver. Gold tested 1740 on Friday, which is up nearly $220 per ounce since our special "buy alert" and "buy recommendation" of December 28-29, within the half-hour of the actual low. But Silver is now testing 3400, up nearly 800 points from that same low when the buy signal was given. At $5000 per every one dollar (100 points) per contract, that represents a gain of nearly $40,000/contract between the low of December 29 and the high of Friday, January 27. Our position trader subscribers on both our daily and weekly reports are still long, and will be for awhile, for as mentioned in that report, I believe this is just the start of the new 3-year cycle. The first phase of every cycle is bullish, per the rules outlined in all of our cycle books.

Short-Term Geocosmics

Mars is retrograde now (January 24-April 14), so matters could get tricky here. This is an indicator of sudden changes in policies, such as we witnessed last week when the Fed thought it prudent to announce that it would maintain a zero-interest policy for three years instead of just another 1-1/2 years as announced previously. Keep in mind that this announcement was made right near the time Mars turned retrograde. Retrograde Mars indicates a reversal of actions initiated at the time. It sounded nice and was a welcomed cause for markets to explode upwards, but I don't think this announcement will be carried through. That's the value of astrology. The announcement was made under a retrograde Mars, when actions taken have to be reversed, and also when the Moon was in Pisces, which indicates it may be more of a case of wishful thinking than sincere commitment. Bernanke may not even be around by then to see it through.

There is not a lot of geocosmic activity going on this week. Perhaps the most noteworthy signature is Venus in opposition to this retrograde Mars on February 1. Venus is in Pisces, where it truly loves agreement and peace. It doesn't like a hassle or a confrontation. But Mars retrograde in Virgo probably sees this weakness of Venus in Pisces, and decides to badger it. This annoyance is irritating to many who want all parties to get along with each other instead of launching these silly barbs. You can probably see the first run of this show in the Republican primaries in Florida, and probably during President Obama's campaign swing this week too. My guess is that those who hurl such unnecessary insults will lose support. Candidates need to be serious and stay with the issues, or the American public turns off on them.

But speaking of all that, we note that on February 3 Neptune will begin its 14-year trek through Pisces, the sign it rules. That would seem to favor Pisces people, like Mitt Romney. Too bad he can't campaign for 14 years. But it favors Obama too (who has been campaigning for what seems like 14 years), because Neptune will form a trine to his natal Venus (his popularity is coming back). It should be an interesting race to the White House this year, as both Romney and Obama have the heavens on their side. Friday is also important because it is the release of the important monthly payroll and unemployment reports. The following week, however, is the one that stands out due to geocosmic activity related to reversals.

And of course we should never take our eye off the fact that Jupiter ends its transit of 23 degrees Aries through 7 degrees of Taurus on March 7, 2012. Historically, long-term cycles in the USA stock market top out by then. For more on this, please read "Forecast 2012," or join our webcast on February 19 where this matter will be discussed in great detail.

Longer-Term Thoughts, and "Answer Me That!"

"The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance." - Cicero - 55 BC (via Mark Lusher to me).

Some things never change. But with Uranus approaching its 3-year waxing square to Pluto, and soon to make a grand square to the USA Sun-Saturn square, changes will take place. The momentum for those changes is already in force, and the source of those changes is simple: economics. With Uranus in Aries, people want freedom, but that freedom is largely for economic opportunity. And that economic freedom for individuals can only come from the presence of a healthy and honest private sector, not an overly expansive and overly regulating public sector.

Listening to President Obama's State of the Union address last week, I was impressed with two things. First, he is still an eloquent speaker who knows exactly what is on the public's mind. Second, he seems to have become disconnected from their reality and is unable or unwilling to take action in the direction of his analysis of the problems. In fact, his actions are in almost complete opposition to his correct analysis of the problems, time and time again (i.e. his comments about "too much regulation," yet he is the leader of this "Era of Regulations," or, "every one should pay their fair share of taxes," yet 47% of population pay no income tax. A "fair share" would be a flat tax, which would be very unpopular for his support base).

One statement in particular that highlights this awareness occurred when he stated that many people think the USA is in a state of decline, and "… those people don't know what they are talking about." Really? Does he not look at the rate of acceleration of the government's debt? Is he not aware that the debt ceiling is about to be increased $1.2 trillion to $16.4 trillion within days, which – according to Rick Santelli on CNBC – represents a debt of $52,409 for every single person living in the USA? That's an increase of over 60% just since the end of 2008! Does he not realize that the USA credit worthiness was downgraded for the first time in its history and it is on watch to be downgraded again soon if nothing changes? Does this support the idea that the country is NOT in decline? This is the "debt explosion" symbolized by Uranus (explosion) in square aspect to Pluto (debt and threat). The fuse is lit and it is exploding on his watch.

But more to the point about the disconnect. It is not just between Obama and the American people, but between the government and the people who elected them to serve. Let me share two examples of this disconnection from my recent trip to Zurich and Amsterdam.

At my workshop on Financial Market Timing on Saturday, January 7, in Zurich, I had the privilege of sitting at lunch with three very fine people. One was a Swiss banker. He was there with one of his special clients - one my subscribers, who is a very successful businesswoman with residences in both Switzerland and Vero Beach, Florida. At a certain point, I asked this young banker if he comes often to the United States. "Not anymore. We can't. Our banks will not let us travel to the USA."

"Why not?" I asked, for this seemed like a very strange policy for a bank.

"Your country now detains all Swiss bankers who enter the USA. They are asked to give up the names of their American clients so they can be checked to see if they are avoiding payment of taxes in the USA. If we do that, we lose our clients and the bank fires us. If we don't, your government detains us for several weeks, months, even years. Therefore none of us, as Swiss bankers, can travel to the USA at this time." You see, it is a violation of Swiss banking laws of confidentiality to reveal their clients to anyone. At the same time, the USA now has a policy where banks from other nations cannot conduct business in the USA unless they reveal the identities of all of their USA clients. As a comparison, imagine that you are a doctor, lawyer, astrologer, or psychologist, and someone from law enforcement asks you to reveal confidential information about one of your clients, under threat of detainment or even incarceration. What do you do? What does your employer do if he/she knows you will be put into such a compromising situation?

Two weeks later, after the mini-symposium on "Forecast 2012" in Amsterdam on Saturday, January 21, I had another experience that would surprise many USA citizens, and again demonstrates the disconnect that has subtly evolved between the government and the people it serves. After the very successful mini-Congress, the organizer - Irma Schogt of Schogt Market Timing – invited two other symposia participants and myself to dinner at a well-known French restaurant. We split a fine bottle of wine. We had dessert, and then left to take me back to my apartment. As we drove along the main thoroughfare, the traffic was diverted to the right of the road. We were in a queue. Irma, the driver, said this diversion was for drivers to be given a breath-alyzer test for alcohol. This is what they do at this hour on Saturday night in Amsterdam. It is an "agreement" between the people and the police. No one wants people driving who are drunk and may be a threat to the safety of others. After a few minutes, it was time for Irma to take the breath-alyzer. I was nervous, because I know what happens in the USA if you are pulled over and found to have a blood alcohol limit that is "too high." But Irma passed the test just fine.

"What would have happened if you had failed, Irma?" I asked.

"They would have pulled me over and asked me to step out of the car and go eat or walk, or do something, and then come back and take it again until I was under the limit for safety."

I am thinking. "This isn't real." But it was and it is. In Amsterdam, the focus is on prevention of problems via cooperation between the people and its government to provide safety for its people. It is a quite different relationship here in the USA.

Why and how have we become so disconnected from our government, or vice-versa? Why is it that the rest of the world is living our dream, the dream of our founding fathers for a cooperation between the government and the people who elect it to serve? Are we losing touch with this aspect of our national character? Is it true that we are not in a state of decline from these founding principles, as President Obama stated? Can we ever get it back? Answer me that!

Announcements

The "Forecast 2012" webcast will take place on Sunday, February 19, starting at 1:00 PM EST (that's 6:00 PM GMT or 10:00 AM PST). Via the modern technology of our webinar host, you can log onto this presentation on current markets (both long-term and short-term outlooks) and the political-psychological climate for 2012, in the comfort of your home or office. All you need is a computer with speakers. You can hear the speech and see the live presentation and slide show, complete with the charts as they are being discussed, on your computer screen. The cost for this special event is $45.00. If you are interested in being part of this unique live webcast, just register at the MMA Website (www.mmacycles.com) and scroll down the opening screen for the announcement. Or drop us an email (ordersmma@msn.com) or fax (248-538-5296), or call us at 1-248-626-3034. Instructions to log into this event will be sent upon making reservations. Reserve early (before February 17), for space will be limited.

If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with position trading and aggressive trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Gold and Silver. Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers: "I am really pleased with your recommendations through the Daily and Weekly Trade Recommendations. I have used them to trade gold and silver stocks in my IRA. In the last eight years I increased my account from $60,000 to $712,000. Thanks for your excellent publications." - Bryden C., Small Business Owner, Illinois.

Copies of the printed version of Forecast 2012 are still available. There will be no additional printings, so when they are gone, they are gone. This year's book is 200 pages – our largest ever – and packed full of information about the economy, USA Presidential election, social and economic trends, and of course, financial markets with their all-important three-star critical reversal dates (the one and two-star reversal dates are covered in the MMA Cycles Report, as well as weekly reports). The annual Forecasts Book, written by Raymond A. Merriman since 1976, is one of the most unique, affordable, and accurate glimpses into the coming year. Utilizing the study of cycles and geocosmic factors, this annual Forecasts book outlines forthcoming trends pertaining to political, economic, and financial markets throughout the world. For further information, please go to the front page of our web site at www.mmacycles.com, O call us at 1-248-626-3034.

The E-Book version of the Forecast 2012 Book is now out as well in two different formats. The first is our own version, which contains both the text and the calendar-ephemeris for 2012. The cost for this is $55.00, or $35.00, depending on whether you also ordered the printed version too. The second is through Apple iTunes, which covers iPhone 4 and 4S, and the iPad, and also Amazon.com Kindle. The cost is $39.99. It does not contain the advertisements or the planetary calendar and ephemeris in the back. You can now order it if you have an email address registered via one of these 9 countries (USA, UK, Australia, France, Canada, Italy, Portugal, Slovenia, and Spain). Just go to iTunes, and then "Library," then "Store," then in the field titled "Search," type in "Forecast 2012" or "Raymond Merriman" (without quotation marks). Or, go to http://itunes.apple.com/us/artist/raymond-merriman/id408289861?mt=11.

The printed version of Forecast 2012 has also been translated into several different languages (including English) this year, and many of these publications are now out or will be this coming week.

Dutch: at www.markettiming.nl

Italian: at www.astrofinanza.com, and http://www.astrofinanza.com/mma/shop.html

German: at http://www.mma-europe.ch/

Japanese: at http://merriman.jp

Russian: at http://www.mmafinance.ru/

Spanish: at www.mmacycles-spanish.com.

Each of these will also offer the English version of Forecast 2012, as will our Chinese distributor at http://www.zzdcycles.com. "After reading the annual Forecasts and subscribing to MMA Cycles for the past ten years, I can say that Ray Merriman's forecasts are uncannily accurate and indispensable for the preservation of wealth. Nothing else I've seen compares. It is without a doubt the best perspective on the big picture, not just bits and pieces of the picture."

W.W., Investor and Teacher, Indiana.

I am about to begin the update to "The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Volume 2: Geocosmic Correlations to Investment Cycles." I expect it to be ready mid-year. We are going to offer a pub-publication special price for those who order it before May 1. The retail price of this expanded and update book will be $125, but the prepublication special will be $75.00 (plus postage). For more information, please go to www.mmacycles.com, and scroll down the front page. You will see it.

"The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 5: Price Objectives and Technical Analysis" is now out as well! The comments and reviews are starting to come in, and we will post them here over the next few weeks. "The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing series is truly a life's work of grand proportion. Raymond Merriman has built the foundation upon which Financial Astrology can securely rest. Volumes 1-4 were more than a foundation, they were an edifice, and Volume 5: Technical Analysis and Price Objectives, is the pinnacle. Coupled with the timing strategies of the first 4 volumes, these volumes provide a complete trading methodology, brilliantly and logically presented, that any person who makes the time and the effort to understand, may trade profitably."- Duke O'Neil, President, Capstone Capital Wealth Management, Boulder, Colorado.

The retail price of this new book is $144.00. If you are interested in this unique and integrated methodology for analyzing and forecasting stock indices, you can save big bucks by ordering all five volumes, or choice of any four now at http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/books/the-ultimate-book-on-stock-market-timing-volume-5/, or just go to www.mmacycles.com and scroll down to the announcement. If ordering all five volumes, you will save $99.00! For more information on this book, go to YouTube at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnplAS5m2AI, describing this new book. It is "the missing link." You may want to check this video out, as it contains some interesting long-term tips.

Our new 2012 MMA Catalogue is now out!! You can download this catalogue directly at http://www.mmacycles.com/index.php?option=com_docman&task=cat_view&gid=41&Itemid=63.

Events:

February 19, 2012: "Forecast 2012 Worldwide Webcast!!!" This is our annual speech to viewers the world over. It will be the latest update on Raymond Merriman's annual Forecast Book. Utilizing the study of cycles and geocosmic factors, this speech will focus on the current state of the economy, political situation in Washington, DC, and in particular, the financial markets, including: the U.S. stock market, interest rates, the U.S. Dollar, Gold, and Silver. This will be a telecast of the live presentation taking place at the Michigan Education Conference Center in Troy, Michigan on Square Lake Road. The webcast and speech will start at 1:00 PM, EST and last two hours. Cost to participate in the webcast, or to attend in person in Troy, is $45.00. Go to http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/multimedia/forecast-2012-live-webcast-february-19,-2012!!!/ for more information.

March 1 and 3, 2012: Hong Kong. "Forecast 2012" on Thursday, March 1, and a full day intensive on "Financial Market Timing" on Saturday, March 3, with emphasis on Gold, Silver, Currencies, and Equity Markets for 2012. Organized by Earlthorn.Com at the Excelsior Hotel, Causeway Bay, Hong Kong. Contact Teresa Wong at 852-2529 1211 (phone), or by e-mail at earlthorn@hknet.com. A special 90-minute private meeting with MMA Subscribers will follow the workshop on March 3.

March 9-11, 2012: The 12th Annual Balkan International Conference, Belgrade, Serbia. Featuring a pre-seminar workshop with Raymond Merriman. For further information on this fantastic gathering, contact www.keplerunited.org. +381-11-267-31-92 or email info@keplerunited.org.

April 19 and 21, Boulder, Colorado. "Forecast 2012" with Raymond Merriman, plus a workshop on "Financial Market Timing," focusing on equities and precious metals. Sponsored by ROMA. For more information and registration, contact dralagifts@msn.com. Once again, a private meeting for MMA subscribers will follow the workshop.

May 24-29, 2012: UAC!!! The world's largest astrological conference. Taking place at the New Orleans Marriott Hotel. Go to www.uacastrology.com. There will be an awesome Financial Track, featuring some of the top Financial Astrologers and researchers in the world. There will be private meeting for MMA on Friday or Sunday evening on the top floor of the Marriott.

August 2-6, 2012: Midwest Astrology Conference, in Ann Arbor, MI, Holiday Inn. Pre-seminar workshop on Financial Astrology, Thursday, August 2, with Raymond Merriman. More details soon.

Disclaimer and statement of purpose:

The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.

This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author's understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle's analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.

It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.

Copyright MMACycles 2007-2012; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).

Archives

Previous weeklies (2006) are archived at www.olmta.com

For other language editions of MMA´s weekly comments:

Chinese : www.zzdcycles.com
Dutch : www.markettiming.nl (Nederlands)
German : www.mma-europe.ch (Deutch)
Japanese : www.merriman.jp
Polish : www.astrobiznes.pl (Polska)
Russian : www.urania.ru
Serbian : www.mma-balkan.com
Spanish : www.mmacycles-spanish.com (Español)

Stocks and corporate bonds flirt with Fibonacci, geomagnetics and time cycles

2012-01-25T18:35:00.007-05:00

Some combination of bullish Apple (AAPL) and the Fed (FOMC today) push stock indices higher again. Starting during the noon hour, stocks anticipated by rising and then strengthened yet more after the Fed announcement. Interestingly the SPX went right to 1327, a level that was suggested by Fibonacci analysis I described back in November. If it tries higher, there's another even more interesting level - 1332, which is two times the 666 which SPX touched back in March 2009. The exact level was about 666.79 so twice that is somewhere around 1333 to 1334. But there's a Bradley turn date coming up on January 28 - normally a time I'd expect a low, because it's around the "fund manager special" end-month time that usually gives us a lift into the new-month new money that we'd expect the first several days of February. It isn't a major Bradley date, but there are cycles reasons to brace for a reversal to occur anytime soon.

One of those is suggested by geomagnetics work done by John Hampson, as shown in his MT Stock Market Model showing a full 2012 year forecast. This work in his MT Model is based on geomagnetism plus Bradley turn dates and new/full moons, and you can study it at his website at: http://amalgamator.co.uk/MTStockMarketModel.aspx.

Another is Fibonacci - one of the Fibonnaci time cycles work I've done is to take the 17-month decline from October 2007 to March 2009 (interesting in itself as two times 8.6 months, where 8.6 may be a basic time interval), and project highs at the 1.382, 1.618 and 1.786 projections - all of which did occur during 2011. This month, January 2012, is the 2.0 time extension, which I originally thought could also produce a high. Later I'd become concerned that it could be a low, based upon a certain view about cycle lows from Terry Laundry's T Theory, but that clearly didn't happen. Instead, the cycle high projected by Jim Curry for this time period seems to be converging with this Fibonacci time extension.

The idea of this month being the 2.0 time extension also means it's possible to see a high-low-high/low-high cycle playing out, based on the 17-month time periods. If the 17-month period retains predictive strength going forward, then it may point to a significant low (or high, but I'm guessing low) in June 2013.

The big question of course is whether stocks are topping out for a big move down, or just positioning for a pullback before another thrust upward. Honestly I can see it either way. The bullish percent for Nasdaq is getting overbought with a little negative divergence, and there's negative divergence in the McClellan Oscillator (for NYMEX and SPX) too. The Nasdaq is leading both SPX and the Dow Industrials by having exceeded its 2011 highs, but that might also be negative divergence among the indices. Near-term, I think we just need to see if the SPX makes it past 1327 (bullish if 1327 becomes support), or goes under 1307 (bearish).

At least, it look prudent to keep on watch for a potential reversal, which is what I recommend that KI$$ investors and swing traders do here.

If you're looking for a turn in something, check out high-quality corporate bonds. You can see below that corporate bonds have also continued to perform very well. Both LQD, representing high-quality bonds, and HYG representing high-yield corporate bonds, have continued bounding upward. LQD has now already exceeded its P&F projection, and HYG now has a new higher P&F target (114) based on its breakout. There is some negative divergence, however. Look especially at the LQD monthly chart - the StockRSI indicator is retesting up to its midline. When this occurs as price is tagging new highs, it is a warning and possibly a preliminary sell signal. It would be prudent to give it another day or two and look for price to close in the lower third of a daily range and below the low of the prior day that tags a high.

As part of this view, I'd like to note that LQD rose above the 109 price that was a Fibonacci extension, and then tested it as support before resuming the current rise. If LQD moves back under 109 on the next drop, it will be an important signal that it will have lower levels to test.

Cycles & technicals paint picture of market juncture here: Andre Gratian's 1/22/12 Turning Points update

2012-01-22T17:57:00.008-05:00

The stock market stepped closer to an edge last week - here's Andre Gratian explaining this, and showing what you need to know about gold, the U.S. dollar and bonds, the volatility index, sentiment and technicals, in his latest Market Turning Points update (thanks again, Andre!). You can get more info about Andre's work at his website (including his intraday update subscriber series), at http://www.marketurningpoints.com/. And now, Andre's update (click any of his charts to see it as a larger image):

=============

January 22, 2012

Market Turning Points
Week-end Report
By Andre Gratian

IS THE RALLY ENDING?

Precision timing for all time frames through a 3-dimensional approach to technical analysis: Cycles - Breadth - P&F and Fibonacci price projections, and occasional Elliott Wave analysis

“By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again, and again, and again -- and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another’s, and each obeying its own law … The same Nature which delights in periodical repetition in the sky is the Nature which orders the affairs of the earth. Let us not underrate the value of that hint." -- Mark Twain

Current position of the market

SPX: Very Long-term trend – The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into 2014.

SPX: Intermediate trend – Intermediate uptrend still intact, but short-term top… or more, is now very close.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.

Daily market analysis of the short term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at ajg@cybertrails.com.

Market Overview

Last week, the rally in the stock market got a reprieve. Two key indicators which were giving bearish signals did not follow through and turned back down. This probably means that an intermediate reversal is not immediately upon us and, even if the SPX makes a final high around 1322, it may be followed by a distribution period before a significant decline begins.

Next week should bring about a short-term top, and these are some of the reasons why:

-- The Point &Figure chart of the SPX is giving us several projections which converge between 1321 and 1324.

-- This is a resistance level where several important trend lines are intersecting, indicating that at least a pause in this area is due.

-- The hourly indicators are suggesting that this might be more than a pause, and a short-term correction instead.

-- In addition to the two contrary indicators mentioned above, UUP (the dollar ETF) is telling us that it probably needs some additional short-term consolidation. But the P&F base that the dollar has formed over the past few weeks suggests that it can go up to about 90 (which would be about 25 on UUP), and that this is only a pause in an intermediate uptrend.

-- The SentimenTrader is flashing a warning which is normally given at important market tops.

-- Cycles are topping in this area.

-- A recent article by Ed Carlson (Seattle Technical Advisors) published on Financial sense mentioned that several George Lindsay indicators were converging on January 23 (next Monday).

The above, in conjunction with an overbought daily MSO and negative divergence in the daily A/D indicator, is saying to the bulls: “Be cautious!”

Chart analysis

The Daily SPX Chart illustrates the strength displayed by the index since mid-December. In addition to positive seasonal influences, daily bullish economic reports have done nothing to reverse the uptrend, but several cycles which are topping in this area are probably the real reason for the market’s steady upward push. Their influence should become less of a factor starting next week.

I have drawn on the chart several trend lines that should offer resistance to the price as it tries to move higher. The principal one is the dark red one which starts at the October 2007 top and connects with the 1370 high, in May of last year.

Others (of various length) are less important, but will nevertheless create a pool of resistance at this general level. This is reinforced by the P&F projection to about 1322.

In addition, if you look at the indicators, there is no question that we are getting close to a correction. The MSO has now been overbought for over four weeks, while the A/D indicator is showing increasing negative divergence and appears ready to break out of its up-channel.

The MSO is reflecting the index strength, but the MACD is not that bullish. Although it has overcome its nearest short-term top, it is still trading below its early November high while the price has exceeded it by over twenty points.

As far as the price is concerned, it is now contained in the lower half of a short-term channel, and is no longer rising to the top channel line – a sign of deceleration.

As we always do, we follow the daily chart with the Hourly Chart to see how the trend stands up to scrutiny under the microscope. In this case, the price trend is still up, but look at the indicators. It may have been a little premature to assign negative divergence to all of them before we see how the index performs on Monday, but I do have a target in mind: 1322, which is only 7 points away. When that target is reached – assuming that we have a positive opening on Monday -- I would not expect the SPX to remain at that level very long, but to begin to retrace almost right away. If I am wrong, the MSO is the one which would have the best chance of erasing its negative divergence. It would take a rise of 15 or 20 points in order for the other two to do the same. Based on what I see, I do not expect that to happen. Also, the next up-move should complete a 5-wave pattern from 1280.

A short-term reversal at this level would not be an automatic sell. The SPX has been in a steady trend of higher highs and higher lows since it started this move on December 19. It would have to close below 1280 before a sell signal is confirmed. Subsequently, we would have to decide if this is only a temporary halt in the longer term uptrend, or if we have started a significant retracement. The activity of the next couple of weeks should give us an opportunity to make this evaluation.

Cycles

Next week is approximately six months from the July 2011 peaks and could bring about a high.

If we do have a reversal over the next few days, the downtrend could last until the first week in March when the next 15-wk cycle makes its low, along with two other important short-term cycles.
(no change)

Breadth

The Summation Index (courtesy StockCharts.com) has not only continued to rise, but it has slightly surpassed the former high. This could be an indication that the coming pause in the uptrend may not be the top of the bull market which started in 2009.

The RSI has reached the overbought area from which the index normally reverses (in conjunction with a reversal in equities). However, it is still rising, which suggests that a rounded top may be more likely to form as opposed to a sudden decline.

Sentiment

The SentimenTrader (courtesy of same) has reached a level of extreme optimism in its long-term indicator. This is normally associated with important tops, and should not be ignored. The SPX may not be one hundred percent ready to have a significant reversal, but this index is telling us that it is most likely already beyond the ninetieth percentile.

The VIX

Last week, when I analyzed the VIX, there was one “little” detail that I failed to take into consideration: its intermediate downtrend line! That was a “big” omission, because that’s what caused the analysis to go (temporarily) wrong. Note how the index did try to reverse, but it was stopped cold when it reached its downtrend line. So what now?

Note what happened at point “A” on the chart. The index found temporary support at about 25.50, but when it broke it, immediately found more support. Two days later, it was back above the broken level. Something similar may happen now.

If we have a market top early next week and reverse, there is a good chance that the VIX – which does the exact opposite of the SPX – will also reverse. Although the positive divergence was partially lost in the MSO, it was not in the MACD, and a quick reversal would preserve it.

BONDS

The technical position of TLT is more complicated. The chart looks as if it is making an important top, but this is contradicted by the indicators which, although still in a downtrend, are in a position much more indicative of a low than a high. Taking this into consideration, as well as the fact that bonds have also been trending in the opposite direction of equity indices, we have to assume that TLT is probably making a re-accumulation pattern which is not yet complete.

UUP (Dollar ETF)

When analyzing an index, we should first determine the status of the longer term trend. In the case of UUP, it is currently undergoing a consolidation in an intermediate trend which started after an important base (identified by wide green line) was formed. On the P&F chart, this base carries a potential projection to about 25.00 (90 on the US dollar). Since the index has broken out of its base, successfully retested the low, and made a higher high, we can assume that the intermediate trend is intact and that the move will eventually carry to the price level indicated by the projection.

Five days ago, UUP made a new high, but it also met with resistance at an internal trend line which had stopped rallies on several previous occasions. Although the indicators initially followed the price action, they quickly gave up and reversed, causing some negative divergence and warning that the index needed to do more work before it could continue its uptrend.

The price has now back-tested the top channel line which had been broken earlier. At that level, it also has support from the median of the channel. Whether it holds here or extends its correction lower is not important, unless it demonstrates the intention of challenging its intermediate uptrend. With the MSO already oversold and beginning to turn up, this looks like an incomplete consolidation in an uptrend. In fact, there is a certain resemblance between the pattern that it is making and that of TLT.

GLD (ETF for gold)

Last week, I pointed out the technical factors affecting the index, both over the short and intermediate trend. This week, I will simply discuss the action of GLD for the past week, and how it has affected its technical position. If you wish to review what was said last week, you can find my newsletter in the archives of Safe Haven or of The Market Oracle.

I believe that GLD is currently making an intermediate correction and that the bounce it is experiencing (the result of a bottoming cycle) is either a consolidation in a downtrend with lower prices to come (141-143 would fill a P&F projection), or that it has started a basing pattern which requires much more work -- including a test of the low. Before resuming its uptrend, it would have to break its intermediate downtrend line.

The index has reached a resistance level and filled the near-term target of 162-163. With the MSO now overbought, it could soon be in position to reverse its short-term trend.

Summary

The SPX is signaling that it is ready for a short-term reversal. It may also be in the process of forming a more important top. A little more time is required to evaluate this possibility.

Andre

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I can’t resist sharing these two subscriber emails that I received recently:

“Hi Andre. I just wanted to thank you for providing the "best" quality service I have ever experienced. I have experienced them all and yours is a "10". You are a great inspiration.”
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For a FREE 4-week trial, Send an email to: ajg@cybertrails.com.

For further subscription options, payment plans, and for important general information, I encourage you to visit my website at www.marketurningpoints.com. It contains summaries of my background, my investment and trading strategies, and my unique method of intra-day communication with subscribers. I have also started an archive of former newsletters so that you can not only evaluate past performance, but also be aware of the increasing accuracy of forecasts.

The above comments about the financial markets are based purely on what I consider to be sound technical analysis principles. They represent my own opinion and are not meant to be construed as trading or investment advice, but are offered as an analytical point of view which might be of interest to those who follow stock market cycles and technical analysis.

ChartsEdge 1/23/12 week forecasts for equities and gold

2012-01-22T12:17:00.003-05:00

If the bearish scenario is wrong, then we'll only get a quick dip instead of a deep low ahead. So let's watch carefully - and to help prepare, here are Mike Korell's ChartsEdge cycle-based forecasts for equity indices and gold (thanks again, Mike!). These are mainly a guide for highs and lows, not necessarily absolute price levels. Their month- and quarter-ahead guidance, along with daily forecast charts, are reserved for subscribers. ChartsEdge incorporates computer-analyzed cycles, pattern recognition, data on solar cycles, geocosmics and geomagnetics.
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Bull market looks intact but overbought: Tony Caldaro's 1/21/12 OEW update

2012-01-21T13:01:00.006-05:00

Tony Caldaro points out that liquidity-driven strength is helping the bull market scenario get the upper hand; though certain support may be tested on a pullback. See that and much more - about U.S. and global stock markets, bonds, the U.S. dollar and other currencies, gold and precious metals, crude oil and other commodities - in this weekend's OEW update (thanks again Tony!). You can also find his daily updates via his tweets as @OEWtony on Twitter, linking to his OEW website http://caldaro.wordpress.com/, or right here in the OEW feed at lower right side of the page):
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the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on
January 21, 2012
weekend update

by Tony Caldaro

REVIEW

The US rally extends to three up weeks in a row. While volatility has virtually disappeared this new year the market continues to work its way higher. For the week the SPX/DOW were +2.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +2.75%. Foreign markets also joined in, with Asia and Europe both +3.10%, as was the DJ World index. Economic reports for the week were biased to the upside: 8 to 5. On the downtick: the PPI, housing starts, building permits, the Philly FED and the M1-multiplier. On the uptick: the NY FED, industrial production, capacity utilization, existing homes sales, the NAHB, the monetary base, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims improved. Next week, the FED meets tuesday and wednesday, then Leading indicators and Q4 GDP. Best to your week!

LONG TERM: bull market

After a volatile spring and summer, that threatened to push the world's economy into another economic meltdown, the markets and economy have recovered in the fall and winter. Pledges from the Eurozone to stabilize the sovereign debt crisis in early October helped put in the market low. Then the ECB's recapitalization of european banks with LTRO 2, in early December, helped to keep the liquidity engine running. This was especially important, in this deflationary period, as the FED had shut down their QE 2 program in June. Then, after a "wait and see" market inflection point in December, January has signalled an all clear to the upside. Our technical indicators and the market's activity suggest the bull market of March 2009 is back.

While the B wave, of Primary wave II, scenario is still possible, a glance at the monthly RSI suggests this is becoming less and less probable. Notice the previous two bear market B wave rallies stopped at the neutral line: red arrows. This advance, from the SPX 1075 low, did stall at that level for a while. But has broken clearly through it during this month's advance: green arrow. With only 7 trading days to go in the month, this is a bullish sign.

The weekly indicators have also turned positive. After hitting an extremely oversold, typical bear market, condition in mid 2011 the Major wave 1 uptrend hit overbought and now this uptrend threatens to break through that level to possibly an extremely, typical bull market, overbought. The MACD, which broke below neutral into bear market territory, is now rising above neutral into bull market territory. As long as these trends continue the bull market remains in force. In the mean time, the economy is still soft with consumers and investors still bearish. This is a perfect set up for the resumption of a bull market.

After the 58% stock market loss during Oct07 – Mar09, to end Supercycle wave 2. We expected Cycle wave [1], of Supercycle 3, to carry the market up in five Primary waves. Primary waves I and II ended in May11 and Oct11 respectively. Primary wave III should be underway now. Rising primary waves divide into five Major waves. Major waves 1 and 2, of Primary III, ended in Oct11 and Nov11 respectively. Major wave 3 should be underway now. This Major wave may subdivide into five Intermediate waves. Similar to Major wave 1 between Mar09 and Apr10. Currently we are anticipating this event.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1315

The daily chart below offers a good view on Primary wave II and the current progress of Primary wave III. Notice the May11-Oct11 decline was five waves, but appears to have taken the form of an elongated flat. The same pattern that ended the 1987 crash. The SPX lost 22% during that 1371-1075 decline. But has already retraced 81% of that loss during the early stages of Primary wave III. In fact, it is less than 4.5% from making a new bull market high. New bull market highs have already been hit by four of the nine SPX sectors: XLK, XLP, XLY and XLU. With the fifth, XLV, only a few ticks away. This does not occur during bear markets, nor bear market rallies.

From the early October SPX 1075 low the market rocketed to SPX 1293 in less than four weeks, ending Major 1. A corrective Major 2 correction followed to SPX 1159. Since then this market has been uptrending. During the uptrend we labeled Minor 1, of a potential Intermediate wave i uptrend, at SPX 1267. Then Minor wave 2 At SPX 1202. Minor wave 3 just hit SPX 1315 this week. After it concludes we should get a Minor 4, with support at SPX 1267. Then Minor wave 5 to conclude the uptrend. Currently the market is quite overbought on the daily RSI.

SHORT TERM

Support for the SPX is at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with overhead resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum has risen to just overbought after hitting neutral early friday. Minor wave 1 unfolded in a complete nine waves. We marked the basic five wave structure with Minute waves on the hourly chart. Minor wave 3 has thus far unfolded in an incomplete 5 waves. We again have marked the basic five wave structure with Minute waves i-ii-iii-iv on the hourly chart.

Minute wave v, the smallest of the waves, has thus far rallied in an incomplete three waves up from the Minute iv SPX 1278 low. It should have at least one more notable pullback, with support at SPX 1303, then another rally to a higher high to complete Minor wave 3. A potential scenario suggests the market opens higher on monday. Then sells off for the rest of the day. Rallies tuesday/wednesday, during the FOMC meeting, on QE 3 rumors. Then pulls back substantially, with SPX 1267 support for Minor wave 4, when no QE 3 is announced.

Currently there is absolutely no pivot resistance until the SPX enters the 1363 pivot range. Quite a gap between the 1313 and 1363 pivots. There is however some price resistance at the following levels: 1327, 1345/47 and then 1356, which is within the 1363 pivot range. Should this uptrend clear SPX 1327 we would have to consider the entire uptrend as a possible Major wave 3, rather than an Intermediate wave one of 3. Short term OEW charts have remained postive since under SPX 1230, with support now just under 1300. Short term support is at the 1313, 1303 and 1291 pivots. Overhead resistance is at SPX 1327, 1345/47 and then the 1363 pivot. Short term momentum is rising. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were all higher on the week for a net gain of 3.1%. Only China and India have not confirmed uptrends.

The European markets were also all higher for a net gain of 3.1%. Italy is still in a downtrend.

The Commodity equity group were all higher for a net gain of 3.5%. Only Russia has not confirmed an uptrend.

The DJ World index is uptrending and gained 3.1% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bonds lost 1.0% on the week as the choppy, trading range, uptrend from October appears to be weakening. Should a downtrend be confirmed Bonds could have a substantial drop as this last uptrend could complete a large Major ABC pattern from the April 2010 low.

Crude remains a volatile commodity, uptrending but losing 0.5% on the week.

Gold (+1.5%) appears to be uptrending from the December $1524 low. On friday it broke out of a week long trading range to the upside. Silver gained 7.7% on the week. Most of it on friday.

The USD (-1.6%) appears to be in a weakening uptrend. We have negative divergences at the recent highs. Similar to the Sept/Oct highs. And both rallies, during this lengthy six month uptrend are equal in length.

NEXT WEEK

Economic reports for the week kicks off on wednesday with Pending home sales, FHFA housing prices and the FED's FOMC statement. On thursday, weekly Jobless claims, Durable goods orders, Leading indicators and New home sales. Then friday ends the week with the Q4 GDP estimate and Consumer sentiment. Best to your weekend and week!

NOTE

We have been been tracking five CEF's (closed end funds), and two penny stocks at the back of the charts. Now that we have tracked them for a few months and are satisfied with the price activity, we will move them into the mix with the other stocks. We are not recommending these stocks. Just trying to offer some additional investment ideas for our readers. Good luck!

CHARTS:http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987

Market pullback potential can be minor or big: Raymond Merriman's comments for 1/23/12 week

2012-01-20T17:11:00.006-05:00

We don't always get what we expect, so it's good to remain open and objective (and flexible). Now that 2012's first opex is in, we turn to Raymond Merriman's comments about the likely scope of an upcoming market pullback (thanks again, Ray!). These discussions of stocks, bonds, currencies, precious metals, crude oil, and other financial and economic matters are in addition to his analyses of other countries' markets, economy, and the social and political climate. Ray also provides detailed paid subscription services (daily, weekly and monthly) for the various markets, at his website always at the right side of the page. Here are Ray's comments for the upcoming week, from his site at Merriman Market Analyst - MMA Cycles Weekly Preview Comments:
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MMA Comments for the Week Beginning January 23, 2012

Written by Raymond Merriman

Review and Preview

Once again this week's column is written and posted well before U.S. markets close on Friday, January 20, due to the fact that I am in Amsterdam now and will give a seminar here on Saturday. The markets won't close until 11:15 PM tonight, CET. Additionally this week's report will be brief due to the current schedule.

Last week saw the continuation of stock markets rallying to new cycle highs in several indices as of Thursday, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ Composite, Brazil's Bovespa index, the AEX of Amsterdam, and SMI of Zurich. The German DAX, London FTSE, Russia's MICEX, and Hang Seng of Hong Kong are very close to doing so. However, prices are still well below their October highs in Japan's Nikkei, Australia's All Ordinaries, China's Shanghai and Argentina's Merval indices. In the case of the DJIA, it is approaching the 12,700 mark, not far from the May 2, 2011 high of 12,876. We will want to watch closely if that is exceeded while other indices remain below their yearly highs of 2011.

The precious metals continued soaring to new cycle highs as well last week. As of Thursday, January 19, Gold was up to 1670 and Silver closing in on 3100 ($31.00/ounce). Given that both the Moon and heliocentric Mercury were in Sagittarius Thursday and Friday (January 19-20), we advised our subscribers to now take some profits if position trading, and cover all longs if aggressive short-term trading. Once again, this was an exception trade, given that three weeks ago subscribers were advised in our special alert to buy Gold below 1530 and Silver below 2660. For those who trade the COMEX, you know that this $140+ gain in Gold represents a profit of $14,000/contract and the 430+ point gain in Silver as of this trade represents a profit of $21,500/ contract. It is a good way to start the year. Our long position in the Euro currency from near the recent low is also working out quite well. And it remains to be seen if new short positions in stock indices will be elected shortly.

Short-Term Geocosmics

This should be another interesting week. The Sun is changing signs, from Capricorn to Aquarius on Friday, January 20. As it does this, it enters a T-square formation with the Jupiter-Saturn opposition (January 19-22). On Monday there is a new moon in Aquarius. Any planet changing its sign is a signal of a turn in investor psychology and attention. And a market that is rising into a new moon is vulnerable to reversing, especially if that new moon is in an air sign. Aquarius is an air sign. Let's see if it happens that a crest is indeed forming now. We have our orders in to enter on the short side if the set up is elected.

But that is not all. Mars is making its 25-month retrograde motion (in Virgo) on January 23-24. It will remain retrograde through April 14. This too can coincide with a sudden change in outlook by the investment community.

Will these reversal signatures lead to a new 2-year bear market? Or are they indicative only of a modest corrective decline before another push to new cycle highs, and possibly new yearly highs? We know that transiting Jupiter is nearing the end of its second passage through 0-7° of Taurus, when the stock market historical makes highs. It was there (within 7° of 0 Taurus) on last year's highs of May 2 and July 21. The market fell 19% afterwards in the DJIA and well over 30% in the German DAX. The implication is that this type of decline will happen again once the crest of this current primary cycle tops out. Jupiter remains in this sector through March 7, so it could happen anytime in the next 7 weeks.

Longer-Term Thoughts….

… will resume next week. In the meantime, I would like to announce that our Forecast 2012 webcast has now been rescheduled for Sunday, February 19, 2012, starting at 1:00 PM EST (see announcement below). It was originally scheduled for December 18, 2011, but had to be cancelled due to my vision impediment that started on November 29. I couldn't see well enough to prepare for this presentation. But now my sight is starting to improve, and I am also adjusting to my new world, thanks to many of the helpful suggestions that have come from readers of this column. I do many of the eye exercises that were suggested, take Ruta Graveolens homeopathic remedy, acupuncture treatments, and Hyperbaric Oxygen therapy, and of course specific nutritional supplements for the eyes, like Lutein. I know it sounds like a lot, but they have all helped. I share this because I now know many of you also suffer from eye problems in this digital age. Another thing suggest by one reader who specializes in eyes, is to look up from the computer every three minutes. So, as many readers have helped me, I hope these ideas will help those of you who are going through something similar.

As far as the greater picture of Uranus and Pluto squaring one another in early cardinal signs, and those of you who have planets located there in your natal chart…. I will continue to offer my best guidance to you through this column. That probably includes most of you. This is a powerful three-year transformative period for the world and for most individuals.

For the world, it relates to the world-wide debt explosion and its consequences. It relates socially to our urge for freedom - especially economic freedom, but also social freedom from repression, isolation or loneliness. These are issues we are experiencing this year and through 2015. These are the issues that each of us as individuals, and the world politically, will be confronted with, and for which solutions need to be put into place that will require 5-8 years of acceptance, sacrifice, and adjustments as we birth a new world order.

These are important times we live in, and our actions will determine both the nature of our current experience and the solidity of the foundation to be built for the future. I believe this is just a pause in our renaissance that started in 1940, took off in leaps in the mid-1960s, and went into hyper speed during the Capricorn Climax of 1988-1993. Our renaissance will resume once we solve these issues, which I think will be sometime between 2017 and 2021.

An important key to this healing, transformation, and/or deconstruction, will be those born in the 1960's, when Uranus started this cycle with its 112-142 conjunction to Pluto. This is their time to express their power, and the intent behind it. We are now approaching the first quarter phase, the "Time of Reckoning," to be reinforced by Saturn's entrance into Scorpio later this year, which will also last into 2015. The more aware we are of this cycle and its principles, the more likely we will be able to navigate our life through these turbulent waters, and help others to do the same, thereby protecting the well-being of this planet and the integrity of those who inhabit it.

Announcements

Our new 2012 MMA Catalogue is now out!! You can download this catalogue directly at http://www.mmacycles.com/index.php?option=com_docman&task=cat_view&gid=41&Itemid=63.

The "Forecast 2012" webcast has been rescheduled now for Sunday, February 19, starting at 1:00 PM EST (that's 6:00 PM GMT or 10:00 AM PST). Via the modern technology of our webinar host, you can log onto this presentation on current markets (both long-term and short-term outlooks) and the political-psychological climate for 2012, in the comfort of your home or office. All you need is a computer with speakers. You can hear the speech and see the live presentation and slide show, complete with the charts as they are being discussed, on your computer screen. The cost for this special event is $45.00. If you are interested in being part of this unique live webcast, just register at the MMA Website (www.mmacycles.com) and scroll down the opening screen for the announcement. Or drop us an email ( ordersmma@msn.com) or fax (248-538-5296), or call us at 1-248-626-3034. Instructions to log into this event will be sent upon making reservations. Reserve early (before February 17), for space will be limited.

I am about to begin the update to "The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Volume 2: Geocosmic Correlations to Investment Cycles." I expect it to be ready mid-year. We are going to offer a pub-publication special price for those who order it before May 1. The retail price of this expanded and update book will be $125, but the prepublication special will be $75.00 (plus postage). For more information, please go to www.mmacycles.com, and scroll down the front page. You will see it.

Many of you have asked about the Amazon.Com Kindle version of Forecast 2012. It is now out, so if you would like it in that format, check our listings on Kindle (Amazon.com). It is there now and available for purchase at $39.99 through Amazon.com. It does not include the ephemeris or calendar that is in the back of the printed hard copy edition.

Copies of the printed version of Forecast 2012 are still available. There will be no additional printings, so when they are gone, they are gone. This year's book is 200 pages – our largest ever – and packed full of information about the economy, USA Presidential election, social and economic trends, and of course, financial markets with their all-important three-star critical reversal dates (the one and two-star reversal dates are covered in the MMA Cycles Report, as well as weekly reports). The annual Forecasts Book, written by Raymond A. Merriman since 1976, is one of the most unique, affordable, and accurate glimpses into the coming year. Utilizing the study of cycles and geocosmic factors, this annual Forecasts book outlines forthcoming trends pertaining to political, economic, and financial markets throughout the world. For further information, please go to the front page of our web site at www.mmacycles.com. There you can also place your order for the Forecast 2012. Or call us at 1-248-626-3034.

The E-Book version of the Forecast 2012 Book is now out as well in two different formats. The first is our own version, which contains both the text and the calendar-ephemeris for 2012. The cost for this is $55.00, or $35.00, depending on whether you also ordered the printed version too. The second is through Apple iTunes, which covers iPhone 4 and 4S, and the iPad. The cost is $39.99. It does not contain the advertisements or the planetary calendar and ephemeris in the back. You can now order it if you have an email address registered via one of these 9 countries (USA, UK, Australia, France, Canada, Italy, Portugal, Slovenia, and Spain). Just go to iTunes, and then "Library," then "Store," then in the field titled "Search," type in "Forecast 2012" or "Raymond Merriman" (without quotation marks). Or, go to http://itunes.apple.com/us/artist/raymond-merriman/id408289861?mt=11.

The printed version of Forecast 2012 has also been translated into several different languages (including English) this year, and many of these publications are now out or will be this coming week.

Dutch: at www.markettiming.nl

Italian: at www.astrofinanza.com, and http://www.astrofinanza.com/mma/shop.html

German: at http://www.mma-europe.ch/

Japanese: at http://merriman.jp

Russian: at http://www.mmafinance.ru/

Spanish: at www.mmacycles-spanish.com.

Each of these will also offer the English version of Forecast 2012, as will our Chinese distributor at http://www.zzdcycles.com. "After reading the annual Forecasts and subscribing to MMA Cycles for the past ten years, I can say that Ray Merriman's forecasts are uncannily accurate and indispensable for the preservation of wealth. Nothing else I've seen compares. It is without a doubt the best perspective on the big picture, not just bits and pieces of the picture."

W.W., Investor and Teacher, Indiana

If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with position trading and aggressive trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Gold and Silver. Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers: "I am really pleased with your recommendations through the Daily and Weekly Trade Recommendations. I have used them to trade gold and silver stocks in my IRA. In the last eight years I increased my account from $60,000 to $712,000. Thanks for your excellent publications." -Bryden C., Small Business Owner, Illinois.

"The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 5: Price Objectives and Technical Analysis" is now out! The comments and reviews are starting to come in, and we will post them here over the next few weeks."The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing series is truly a life's work of grand proportion. Raymond Merriman has built the foundation upon which Financial Astrology can securely rest. Volumes 1-4 were more than a foundation, they were an edifice, and Volume 5: Technical Analysis and Price Objectives, is the pinnacle. Coupled with the timing strategies of the first 4 volumes, these volumes provide a complete trading methodology, brilliantly and logically presented, that any person who makes the time and the effort to understand, may trade profitably."- Duke O'Neil, President, Capstone Capital Wealth Management, Boulder, Colorado.

The retail price of this new book is $144.00. If you are interested in this unique and integrated methodology for analyzing and forecasting stock indices, you can save big bucks by ordering all five volumes, or choice of any four now at http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/books/the-ultimate-book-on-stock-market-timing-volume-5/, or just go to www.mmacycles.com and scroll down to the announcement. If ordering all five volumes, you will save $99.00! For more information on this book, go to YouTube at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnplAS5m2AI, describing this new book. It is "the missing link." You may want to check this video out, as it contains some interesting long-term tips.

Events:

January 21, 2012: Amsterdam, Netherlands. "Forecasts for 2012," 1:00 PM – 3:30 PM, followed by a 60-minute private meeting with MMA Subscribers. This symposium is sponsored by Schogt Market Timing. Call 31-(0) 294-415-917 for further more information, www.markettiming.nl. or http://www.markettiming.nl/en/producten/forecast-2012-amsterdam, or www.markettiming.nl.

February 19, 2012: "Forecast 2012 Worldwide Webcast!!!" This is our annual speech to viewers the world over. It will be the latest update on Raymond Merriman's annual Forecast Book. Utilizing the study of cycles and geocosmic factors, this speech will focus on the current state of the economy, political situation in Washington, DC, and in particular, the financial markets, including: the U.S. stock market, interest rates, the U.S. Dollar, Gold, and Silver. This will be a telecast of the live presentation taking place at the Michigan Education Conference Center in Troy, Michigan on Square Lake Road. The webcast and speech will start at 1:00 PM, EST and last two hours. Cost to participate in the webcast, or to attend in person in Troy, is $45.00. Go to http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/multimedia/forecast-2012-live-webcast-february-19,-2012!!!/ for more information.

March 1 and 3, 2012: Hong Kong. "Forecast 2012" on Thursday, March 1, and a full day intensive on "Financial Market Timing" on Saturday, March 3, with emphasis on Gold, Silver, Currencies, and Equity Markets for 2012. Organized by Earlthorn.Com at the Excelsior Hotel, Causeway Bay, Hong Kong. Contact Teresa Wong at 852-2529 1211 (phone), or by e-mail at earlthorn@hknet.com. A special 90-minute private meeting with MMA Subscribers will follow the workshop on March 3.

March 9-11, 2012: The 12th Annual Balkan International Conference, Belgrade, Serbia. Featuring a pre-seminar workshop with Raymond Merriman. For further information on this fantastic gathering, contact www.keplerunited.org. +381-11-267-31-92 or email info@keplerunited.org.

April 19 and 21, Boulder, Colorado. "Forecast 2012" with Raymond Merriman, plus a workshop on "Financial Market Timing," focusing on equities and precious metals. Sponsored by ROMA. For more information and registration, contact dralagifts@msn.com. Once again, a private meeting for MMA subscribers will follow the workshop.

May 24-29, 2012: UAC!!! The world's largest astrological conference. Taking place at the New Orleans Marriott Hotel. Go to www.uacastrology.com. There will be an awesome Financial Track, featuring some of the top Financial Astrologers and researchers in the world. There will be private meeting for MMA on Friday or Sunday evening on the top floor of the Marriott.

Disclaimer and statement of purpose:

Copyright MMACycles 2007-2012; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).

Archives

Previous weeklies (2006) are archived at www.olmta.com

For other language editions of MMA´s weekly comments:

Chinese : www.zzdcycles.com
Dutch : www.markettiming.nl (Nederlands)
German : www.mma-europe.ch (Deutch)
Japanese : www.merriman.jp
Polish : www.astrobiznes.pl (Polska)
Russian : www.urania.ru
Serbian : www.mma-balkan.com
Spanish : www.mmacycles-spanish.com (Español)

Corporate earnings to hit all-time highs... Really?! - Chart of the Day

2012-01-20T08:39:00.002-05:00

Wheee! Corporate earnings will go to new all-time highs! Or - not? Economic conditions do make us wonder. Let's take a look at the earnings chart provided by the folks at http://www.chartoftheday.com, below. Call me a skeptic but I question whether this will be realistic - take a look and judge for yourself:

Chart of the Day - Corporate earnings expected to make record highs
Today's chart provides some further perspective into the past and future trends of 12-month, as-reported, inflation-adjusted S&P 500 earnings. Today's chart illustrates how earnings declined over 92% from its Q3 2007 pre-financial crisis peak and then, beginning in Q1 2009, quickly surged back to near record levels. This begs the question; will corporate earnings make new record highs? As today's chart illustrates, based on the latest S&P 500 earnings estimates (see red line), earnings are expected to make new, inflation-adjusted record highs during the first half of this year. Considering the current global economic environment, this is indeed quite an achievement.

Notes:
Where's the Dow headed? The answer may surprise you. Find out right now with the exclusive & Barron's recommended charts of Chart of the Day Plus.

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"Great Moments in Science: Einstein discovers that time is actually money." - Gary Larsen

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January 23, 2012 - Chinese New Year
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Price, time & technicals herald big moves coming in stocks, gold & bonds: Andre Gratian's 1/16/12 Turning Points update

2012-01-16T18:39:00.012-05:00

I know many traders have been looking for a stock market drop or pullback (maybe even based on Bradley or other cycle turn dates). Well, it may be arriving - and what about gold, plus U.S. bonds and the dollar? Here's the scoop from Andre Gratian in his latest Market Turning Points update (thanks again, Andre!). You can get more info about Andre's work at his website (including his intraday update subscriber series), at http://www.marketurningpoints.com/. And now, Andre's update (click any of his charts to see it as a larger image):

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January 16, 2012

Market Turning Points
Week-end Report
By Andre Gratian

A REVERSAL IS DUE

Precision timing for all time frames through a 3-dimensional approach to technical analysis: Cycles - Breadth - P&F and Fibonacci price projections, and occasional Elliott Wave analysis

“By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again, and again, and again -- and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another’s, and each obeying its own law … The same Nature which delights in periodical repetition in the sky is the Nature which orders the affairs of the earth. Let us not underrate the value of that hint." -- Mark Twain

Current position of the market

SPX: Very Long-term trend – The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into 2014.

SPX: Intermediate trend – Intermediate uptrend still intact, but short-term top… or more, is now very close.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.

Daily market analysis of the short term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at ajg@cybertrails.com.

Market Overview

Deceleration in the SPX is becoming more and more obvious on the Point & Figure chart and in the hourly chart. This, in concert with overbought daily indicators, is a clear warning that we are approaching the end of the trend which started at 1159 on 11/25, and perhaps of that going back to 1075 in early October, as well. Last week, the SPX made a triple-top on its hourly chart (only a double-top on the daily chart), after barely overcoming the 1292 high of Dec. 27. Is this it? Or is there more to come?

Since, as of Friday, there was no clear sell signal, it is possible that we could go a little higher or, at least, continue to work a little longer at expanding the top formation. On the P&F chart, the index has already formed a pattern which looks very much like distribution, with trading confined to a 20-30-point range. If prices fail to break out of this range on the upside or, if there is a break-out of a few points with an immediate retracement into the range, it will be a sign that buyers are exhausted and that sellers are getting the upper hand.

Should this happen, we could identify everything above 1266 as a possible top formation which already measures nearly 100 points across (P&F). That means that if that level is broken, we are looking at a potential 100-pt decline in the SPX. That would not be enough to put an end to the intermediate trend which started at 1075 unless, after a re-distribution level is formed, it becomes a possibility if the decline continues beyond 1159.

Let’s not speculate, but take it one step at a time and concern ourselves first with the topping formation, and then with the ensuing decline. We’ll start by analyzing the developing top formation on the Daily SPX Chart.

Chart analysis

Don’t expect to see a potential 100-point top on this chart. It’s the business of the P&F chart to show that. What we do see here, is a larger trend which started at the beginning of October (3-yr cycle low) from 1303, which is delineated by the purple channel lines, and which, as of last Thursday, was still making new highs.

Within that larger uptrend, there are several smaller ones, beginning with a spectacular four-week rally from 1203 to 1292 whose high was only bested last week – barely! Since then, the trend has been essentially sideways having, at best, a vague resemblance to an inversed Head & Shoulders pattern. If it is, we should only get a minor pull-back to the neckline (not shown) and then resume the uptrend. The SPX could also be making a broad consolidation pattern before moving higher.

For now, the last short-term uptrend from 1203 appears to be coming to an end. If we turn to the indicators, we can see that the MSO has now been overbought for about two weeks, and that the MACD and the A/D are both showing negative divergence. More importantly, there has been a long-standing P&F projection of 1293-94 created by the base that formed above the 1203 level. This count was filled last week when the SPX moved to 1296. It tried to move beyond that level two more times in the course of the week, but could not and finally fell back on Friday.

Because the SPX has not yet given a sell signal, and because it formed a small re-accumulation level at 1277 (which gives it a potential move to 1299), it is still possible that the index could move a little higher next week. As we will see next, the Hourly Chart indicators are also suggesting that this is possible.

What a beautiful short-term uptrend this is! From 1203, the SPX has moved up in a steady progression of higher highs and higher lows, within a well-defined channel which has yet to be violated. And yet, one could tell, almost from the start, that the extent of the move would be limited. Look at the MACD: from the very first top it started to show negative divergence, and this has become more and more pronounced as the trend moved higher. You can also see how price failed to get to the top of the channel a couple of weeks ago and was followed by a move sideways. For the first tie, on Friday, the SPX broke below the median and almost reached the bottom of the channel.

This loss of momentum is a negative but, according to the P&F, there is still a potential for going a little higher. And look at the indicators! They are oversold and trying to reverse. That puts the odds slightly in favor of re-testing last week’s high, and perhaps even going a little higher.

Cycles

Next week is approximately six months from the July 2011 peaks and could bring about a high.

If we do have a reversal over the next few days, the downtrend could last until the first week in March when the next 15-wk cycle makes its low, along with two other important short-term cycles.

Breadth

As expected, the Summation Index (courtesy StockCharts.com) has continued to move up until its RSI reached the overbought condition. Since both have not yet turned down, it’s another reason to expect a little more from the SPX, either in time or price before it rolls over.

In spite of its current upside momentum, the NYSI is unlikely to make a new high, or even match its previous high. This would create negative divergence to the price, and could be a sign that the SPX is ready for a significant decline.

Sentiment

This is the lowest level that we have seen on the SentimenTrader (courtesy of same) long-term index since the SPX July top, which confirms expectations that we have arrived at an important market top.

For the past few weeks, we have been looking at the weekly chart of the VIX. This week, we’ll look at the Daily Chart instead, because positive divergence has appeared in the price as well as in the indicators -- something that we have not seen for a long time in the VIX -- and you know what that means: it’s reversal time for the SPX! Even by itself, it would be a powerful enough signal, but combined with everything else that we have discussed so far, if you are a bull, you should start feeling a tad uncomfortable.

The positive divergence only shows up in the daily chart, not in the weekly chart. If our past study of the VIX behavior is valid, this should denote a short-term or intermediate-term reversal, not a major top. Besides, the VIX P&F chart is only forecasting a move to about 28 after which it should go through another phase of consolidation. The last important uptrend in the VIX started after a long basing period and went to 48. The current condition does not show any similarity and we should not be looking for a major decline in the SPX; nothing like the downtrend from 1370 to 1075. We will have a better idea of what to expect when the top pattern of the SPX is complete and we can make a P&F projection.

BONDS

The week before last, TLT broke an important trend line, seemingly forecasting a trend reversal that could take it down to 110. But that was a devious maneuver meant to hide its true intentions which are to extend its uptrend, possibly to a new high.

Here is the TLT Daily Chart. Two price channels have been drawn: the more narrow one, which encompasses the uptrend from last February, and the wider one, which has its starting point in April 2010. While the long-term uptrend appears secure, the intermediate trend fooled us into thinking that it might be coming to an end two weeks ago when the index started to trade outside of its lower channel line. But there was no follow-through, and the similarity between the action of TLT and VIX over the past two weeks is suggesting a possible resumption of its uptrend.

This could result in a new high for TLT. What looked like distribution on the P&F chart now looks like re-accumulation instead with a potential for taking the price to 126-127.

The indicators have not yet given a conclusive buy signal, but they have started to reverse from an oversold position. This is a warning that the consolidation is probably over and that another uptrend is about to start. We’ll give it a little more time to make sure!

UUP (Dollar ETF)

This week, we’ll go back to analyzing the weekly chart of UUP where there is no equivocation about the direction of the trend. It’s up! The price has just gone beyond a strong resistance area and made a new high. It has moved within an up channel since mid-August, and is getting ready to challenge its 200-wk MA. The indicators are also in a strong uptrend, even though the MSO is overbought. The MACD is particularly impressive, having just broken above a long-term trend line and continuing to move higher with no sign of deceleration.

The action of UUP appears to confirm what the US dollar P&F chart has been telling us. Between May and August 2011, the index created a base which is projecting a move to 90 (on Friday, the dollar closed at 81.51). There is an interim phase count to 83 which could result in a pause in its uptrend and give the SPX a chance to consolidate.

The dollar/UUP ratio remains fairly constant at about 3.58. When the dollar moves to 83, UUP should be at about 23.20, and at 90, UUP would be at about 25.10, slightly outside of its long-term channel.

GLD (ETF for gold)

The long-term trend in the SPX and in gold are not exact replicas, but they are more similar than not. If there is a noteworthy correction in the SPX, it could affect gold negatively. This confirms what we see when we analyze gold based on its own technical merits.

Analyzing GLD is the same as analyzing gold. GLD is currently in an intermediate downtrend which is incomplete. Although it has recently bounced from 148.27 to 161.62, it is still within the confines of its down-channel. As you can see on the chart, it found support on its long-term trend line from 2008, as well as from a former congestion level created between May and July 2011.

After it made its high of 185.85, the P&F chart created a projection down to a minimum of 143-144 with a maximum of 134. The re-distribution level that formed around 170 confirmed these initial projections. GLD did not initially make it down to its P&F projections because of the support levels mentioned above. But it is very likely that there will be another attempt at meeting these targets before the index is ready to resume its long-term uptrend.

It is unlikely that gold has reached it final high. From the re-accumulation level which occurred between March 2008 and August 2009, we could derive two distinct projections: a minimum move to about 187-189 (the high came near 186), and a maximum move to 233. Therefore, when the intermediate correction is over, GLD should be able to proceed to the higher projection.

Before it is ready to do that, the following should take place:

1 – GLD should, at least, meet its downside target of 143, and perhaps of 134 as well.

2 -- When an intermediate correction occurs, the initial uptrend usually resets to a lesser angle of ascent. By holding on to the long-term trend line, this did not take place. However, moving down to 143-134 would do the trick.

3 – On the P&F chart, the correction should create a re-accumulation base which is substantial enough to give a confirming count to the next higher projection of 233. This has not been done, and could take a while.

For these reasons, the odds are that GLD needs more work in time and price before its correction is complete.

Summary

There is a virtual fanfare of warning signs heralding the arrival of a (perhaps significant) top for the SPX and other equity indices. How significant is a question that we will have to let the market answer in due time.

When the top is complete (perhaps by the end of next week) the P&F chart should give us an estimate of the decline’s extent.

Andre

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ChartsEdge 1/16/12 week forecasts for equities and gold

2012-01-15T16:40:00.002-05:00

Let's see if trading volatility picks up this week - below are Mike Korell's ChartsEdge cycle-based forecasts for equity indices and gold (thanks again, Mike!). These are mainly a guide for highs and lows, not necessarily absolute price levels. Their month- and quarter-ahead guidance, along with daily forecast charts, are reserved for subscribers. ChartsEdge incorporates computer-analyzed cycles, pattern recognition, data on solar cycles, geocosmics and geomagnetics.
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Consider market possibilities if U.S. is safe haven: Tony Caldaro's 1/13/12 weekend update

2012-01-14T10:10:00.003-05:00

Don't be bearish - or bullish - be objective. This weekend, Tony Caldaro reviews what to consider and look for as stocks and other financial assets may remain above key support and not turn too bearish. That's why Tony calls his method Objective Elliott Wave! So here's his analysis of U.S. and global stock markets, bonds, the U.S. dollar and other currencies, gold and precious metals, crude oil and other commodities (thanks again Tony!). You can also find his daily updates via his tweets as @OEWtony on Twitter, linking to his OEW website http://caldaro.wordpress.com/, or right here in the OEW feed at lower right side of the page):
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the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on
January 14, 2012
weekend update

by Tony Caldaro

REVIEW

Another quiet and positive week, technically, in the US markets. For the third week in a row the market traded in a narrow range: 20 points, 20 points and 22 points this week. The last two weeks have been positive with new uptrends highs. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.05%. Foreign markets had a better week. Asian markets rose 2.4%, European markets rose 1.3% and the DJ World index rose 1.1%. Economic reports had a negative bias, with two down for every one up. On the uptick: consumer credit, import prices, consumer sentiment and the monetary base. On the downtick: wholesale/business inventories, retail sales, export prices, the WLEI, and both weekly jobless claims plus the twin deficits worsened. Overall, January has started off with a good positive bias. Next week, we'll be watching the CPI/PPI, Industrial production and Building permits. Best to your week!

LONG TERM: bull market

Some weeks ago we anticipated the first couple of weeks in January would be the deciding factor for the ongoing bull/bear market inflection point. It certainly has been! The market, as measured by the SPX, has not advanced that much it price. Only up 2.5% for the year. While the market has continued to impulse higher, our long term technicals have greatly improved. In fact, when we review both the fundamental and technical data sets we track they appear to be in the right position for a continuation of a bull market, not a bear market.

Consumer sentiment is beginning to improve after a three decade low. Economic indicators have been rising since October, after flashing a potential recession. And, long term investor sentiment has began to rise after being quite bearish just a month ago. All three fundamental indicators are still in a bearish mode. While the economy is just beginning to improve and investors/consumers are still cautious, stock market technicals are getting quite positive. Our smart money indicator turned positive last week, and continues to improve. Market breath just made a new bull market high this week. The number of stocks above their 200 dma has made a new high, after the October low, and is now over 50%. And, the SPX monthly RSI has broken through neutral and continues to rise. It looks like the market is in the early stages of a resumption of the bull market. Usually, investor sentiment gets extremely bullish and consumers turn quite positive before a bull market starts its topping process. We are currently no where near these kinds of readings. They are both still bearish!

The SPX weekly chart displays our OEW count since late 2002. A Primary V wave bull market from Oct02-Oct07, ending the Supercycle, SC1, that began in Mar 1932. Then a Supercycle bear market followed, taking the form of a zigzag, as the market lost 58% of its value. Next we have the early stages, Primary waves I and II, of a five primary wave Cycle [1] bull market, starting at the SC2 low in Mar09. Observe Primary wave III is in its early stages, having completed only Major waves 1 and 2 of its five major waves. The weekly MACD has turned positive again after dropping into bearish, (below neutral), territory. The weekly RSI touched overbought during the Major wave 1 uptrend, and is heading higher, after also hitting a bearish quite oversold condition. These are all positives.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1297

This uptrend started in late November and is now in its second month. Since May11 all trends have been one month or less, including the five waves down into the Oct11 low and Major waves 1 and 2. We have been counting the rally from SPX 1159 to 1267 as Minor wave 1. The pullback to SPX 1202 as Minor wave 2. And, the rally to SPX 1297, thus far, as Minor wave 3. If Minor wave 3 ended at the recent high, we'd expect a small pullback, not overlapping Minor 1, and then another rally to complete Minor wave 5 and the uptrend.

Since there is heavy resistance between SPX 1293 and 1327, we're expecting this uptrend to be just Intermediate wave one of Major wave 3. Intermediate waves ii-iii-iv-v would then be needed to complete Major wave 3. If everything falls into place, as expected, this entire bull market, from March 2009, should challenge the all time high at SPX 1576 before it concludes. But it needs to clear the May11 high at SPX 1371 by more than one percent first. That is the historical maximum level for a bear market rally during a Primary wave II. Our alternate count posted on the DOW charts below.

SHORT TERM

Support for the SPX is at 1278, the 1261 pivot range, and then 1250. Overhead resistance is at the 1291, 1303 and 1313 pivot ranges. Short term RSI momentum displayed a negative divergence at the SPX 1297 high. Dropped to oversold when the market dropped to SPX 1278. And, was rising towards overbought on friday's late day rally.

We counted nine waves up for Minor wave 1, with pullbacks between 11 and 17 points. We also count nine waves up for Minor wave 3, with pullbacks between 11 and 20 points. Minor wave 1 traveled 108 points, and Minor wave 3 has traveled 95 points. Thus far, the wave structure and length are about equal. Should we get a pullback over 20 points this would suggest Minor wave 4 is underway, with support at SPX 1267 or a bit higher. After that Minor wave 5, to new uptrend highs, should unfold to complete the uptrend. Thus far, we have not received confirmation of a Minor wave 3 top. So it is possible this rally can still extend higher before Minor 3 ends. Short term OEW charts have remained positive since SPX 1230, with support now around 1280. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were all higher on the week for a net gain of 2.4%. All but China, India and Hong Kong are in confirmed uptrends.

The European markets were mostly higher on the week, England and Switzerland displaying some weakness, for a net gain of 1.3%. All but Italy are in confirmed uptrends.

The Commodity equity group were all higher on the week, gaining 1.0%. All but Russia are in confirmed uptrends.

The DJ World index has been uptrending and gained 1.1% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to uptrend, gaining 0.6%, and Bond prices hit new bull market highs this week. The 10YR is currently yielding 1.85%, and the 30YR 2.90%.

Crude continues its volatility losing 2.9% on the week. It is still in an uptrend and getting close to being oversold.

Gold appears to be uptrending with impulsive waves, gaining 1.5% on the week. Silver is impulsing as well.

The USD has been uptrending for six months. It gained 0.3% this week while making a new uptrend high at 81.78. The EUR lost 0.3% at new downtrend lows.

Think back for a moment. When was the last time in history we had stocks, bonds, gold and the USD all in bull markets. The mid 1940′s? During World World II. The US was the world's safe haven then, as all USD assets and commodities were in strong demand. Then one year after the war ends stocks and commodities peaked, including gold. A year after that Bonds peaked and rates began to rise. The USD however, did not peak until around 1951. Currently we have Gold, commodities and possibly stocks peaking in 2014. Bonds peaking the year after that. But, the USD should continue its bull market until 2018. Are investors envisioning the US as the world's safe haven again? Maybe so.

NEXT WEEK

With monday a national holiday, economic reports start on tuesday with the NY FED at 8:30. On wednesday, we have the PPI, Industrial production, and the NAHB housing index. On thursday, weekly Jobless claims, the CPI, Housing starts, Building permits, and the Philly FED. Then friday closes the week with Existing home sales. The FED has one activity scheduled. FED governor Tarullo gives Congressional testimony on the Volcker Rule on wednesday. Best to your extended weekend and week!

CHARTS:http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987

We're closer to changes in world, markets, and trends now: Raymond Merriman's comments for 1/16/12 week

2012-01-13T18:07:00.003-05:00

Did it seem like just a bad dream? Intraday swings didn't prevent the stock market from testing higher - until today. Now the realities of the eurozone debt crisis and worldwide jitters are surfacing again; the S&P downgrades of France and other countries is a piece of that. For perspective and predictions, we start our weekend with Raymond Merriman's insights for stocks, currencies, precious metals and other financial and economic matters (thanks again, Ray!). These preview comments are in addition to his more detailed subscription services. Ray also analyzes other countries' markets, economy, the political climate, bonds, and commodities. He also offers detailed paid subscription services (daily, weekly and monthly available, at his website always at the right side of the page here). Here are Ray's comments for the upcoming week, from his site at Merriman Market Analyst - MMA Cycles Weekly Preview Comments:
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MMA Comments for the Week Beginning January 16, 2012

Written by Raymond Merriman

Review and Preview

With my schedule here in Europe, I don't have the luxury of waiting for markets to close for the week and then writing my column. The last markets I track are Gold and Silver, with their 5:15 PM, EST close, which equates to 11:15 PM here in Europe.

So instead, you will read more about my personal experiences when overseas, through the eyes and mental processes of an astrologer. I don't really know why I am sharing more of myself, my life, my inner thoughts, than before. Perhaps it has to do with progressed Mercury now going retrograde in Pisces in my chart for the next 19 years. You are going to learn more about how astrology works in these columns than before, and especially during those weeks when I travel, for these reports will come out earlier than when I am stateside.

Short-Term Geocosmics

There are two major geocosmic concerns coming up in the next ten days. The first is the Sun entering a T-square formation with the Jupiter-Saturn opposition (January 19-22). The second is Mars turning retrograde in Virgo (January 24 through April 14).

The Jupiter-Saturn opposition is unusual because it is not quite exact. It is one degree away from exactness, and it happens as Saturn is in the last degree of Libra and Jupiter the first degree of Taurus, so they aren't even in opposite signs. This is known as an "out-of-sign" opposition. And when the planets are in last and first degrees of signs that are not the "norm": for this aspect, it usually means "changing conditions." Something is changing related to Jupiter (growth, optimism, and expansion) and Saturn (contraction and fear). Together these two planes pertain to a "judgment." Could it be that some country gets a credit downgrade and fears of a global meltdown abound again? Or is it more to do with something in the mundane field of law? One side wants to expand, the other wants to contract, and with the Sun right in the middle, the result may be paralysis (i.e., gridlock). This is not new, but yet something is different about this case. It would seem that a law could be passed that might restrict freedom, take away certain liberties and assumed rights, but done quietly, and maybe without even a vote. Yet in a few weeks or months, people begin to realize what happened when they weren't paying attention to what was taking place today. It's like a shadow growing ever larger over the landscape. It's the same landscape, but it looks a little different, a little less clear and brilliant.

Mars turning retrograde is also interesting because it often coincides with war threats. This may be even more the case now that Uranus is in Aries, home to Mars. But Mars is in Virgo, so the threats may be related to work issues and a perceived lack of economic opportunities. This is in effect through April 14, so we may see some powerful worker strikes taking place that could cripple the distribution of needed goods throughout the world. Maybe Iran does close the Straits of Hormuz, for Virgo is opposite Pisces, which rules oil.

The bottom line is that these two signatures indicate a change of collective psychology and also political direction. And this can directly cause a change of trend in many financial markets.

Longer-Term Thoughts

For this week, and most weeks when I travel, I will just have a chat with you about Astrology and the times we live in. You can deduce long-term market consequences from these thoughts.

For me, these days clearly reflect the life of a trader and the life of a market trading analyst/advisor. It's the corresponding experiential reality of transiting Uranus in Aries, hitting in hard aspect to one's (my) Sun and Mars in Capricorn. I am all of that, and quite a few of you are some of that, because many of you have planets in the first 7-8 degrees of cardinal signs, which is where my own natal Sun and Mars are located. If you don't have the Sun there, chances are you have another planet, lunar node, or angle there. A lot of you are undergoing the same cosmic initiation and/or transformation I am experiencing. The only difference between us may the degree of awareness – consciousness - that this happening. But if I can put it in words, you will recognize it. That is one of my roles as writer of this column, especially when I travel.

So most of you reading this column have something important in the first 7-8 degrees of cardinal signs, and that part of us is experiencing the measure of Uranus and Pluto right now. We have been experiencing this since the 2008-2015 Cardinal Climax began. If you took a survey of people who are into astrology right now – like those of you reading this column that this Financial Astrologer loves to write every week – I think you would find the majority of this audience KNOWS that this is true. We are all intrigued with figuring out what this period means for us personally and for the world that we inhabit.

And one thing we are discovering is that we are all connected. That is Uranus too – the internet, the "Digital Age," that we have been living out the past 20-30 years. We are conversing with the world. What is it? What is Uranus? Why is it that we can never quite describe it, except to say that "it's different this time" (not to be confused with the recent economic book of the same title, which is well worth reading)? It's different because we, as individuals, are connected to one another as never before. And we want this idea of freedom. We want economic freedom and we want the social freedom of escaping isolation and loneliness. There is a shift of power in the world taking place back to the individual, and this does not bode well for governments that are trying to grow their power over the individual. The individual is breaking out.

But let's get back to me (I told you Uranus in Aries squares my Sun now), because I can only relate what I am going through and how different it is, yet how consistent this inconsistency is with what we know we don't know about Uranus. We know that Uranus represents extremes. It can break through any boundary, just as it breaks through multiple support and resistance levels in financial markets in an eye blink. Just like that – crash or lightning bolt – we are in a new world, a different reality, because we broke through to the extremes – and even beyond them. And we ask in wonderment: "Where are we now? Where are we going next?"

So for this trader/analyst/advisor, the extremes have been personally experienced in markets these past couple of weeks. And I suspect many of you experienced that too. On the one extreme was this call I made in Gold and Silver via "special alert" notices sent to subscribers on December 28-29. I called the bottom about as close as any analyst has ever called a bottom, time-wise (within the half hour). I mean if I do say so myself – and why not? Uranus is squaring my Sun… I can brag on my blog if I want to. Do you have any idea what an adrenaline rush that is for a trader? I do, and so do many of you now. Welcome to my world these past two weeks, where only the sky is the limit.

And welcome to this other side of my world too, which is a little more Plutonian. At just about the same time my perfectly wonderful and ego-satisfying "Uranus square Sun" experience kicked in, the stock market also soared to a new cycle high, which was exactly the opposite of what I expected to happen past the first day of this year. Pluto kicked into my world. Why is it with Pluto you can never get a break, or you can never bask in the sunshine for more than a minute before storm clouds start to gather? The stock market didn't turn before the calendar did.

For me, life is easier when I am right with modest gains in both those markets at the same time, instead of huge gains in one and not-so-small losses in the other. I don't like extremes. I am a Capricorn, and the instructions for this life are: he likes his boundaries respected. Yet… there is something electric and magical about those times that you do exceed those boundaries, when you allow yourself to be taken to those extremes and beyond.

We are all experiencing things for the first time now. That's the nature of Uranus going into Aries. And as a human community, we are about to experience many more things for the first time in 2012, and lasting into 2015. Uranus in Aries is squaring Pluto. The energy, the force, the new realities, is already unfolding.

And here's the thing that concerns me about … me, and how I see it all coming down. What if it doesn't go as expected, which is to say, what if it doesn't crash and burn? What if there are no earthquakes and tsunamis and no more overthrows of repressive world leaders? What if the world economies don't collapse and the Euro Union doesn't break up or transform in some way? What if the USA election 2012 is peaceful and civil and not negative with accusations of the other side of being the agent of destruction on the eve of destruction in a nation that is entering its decline? What if markets didn't fall hard this year, and instead rallied to new all-time highs amidst an economy that shows greater job growth and falling unemployment? What if? These are things that most of us don't expect will happen. But it's the Uranus-Pluto square, and these are the themes that have happened historically under this configuration (i.e. 1931-1934, 1876-1878). What if this time THAT was different, and instead of insanity and hysteria, it was smooth and successful? That would be unexpected, wouldn't it? That would be Uranus too, wouldn't it?

Well… if that happened, I would say we are all experiencing Neptune in Pisces. If you are an astrologer, you know this is an important 14-year transit that is about to begin as well. You know Neptune rules Pisces, so it will be strong – as strong as Neptune can be in Pisces (an oxymoron…Neptune's strength is in its gentleness, its quest for peace). This should be interesting with Uranus in Aries at the same time, whose quest is for combat and winning in competition – or by any means possible, even ruthless ones. That is at the forefront too until 2018.

But I keep coming back to Uranus square Pluto. That is part of Pluto's charm in Capricorn: it just keeps coming back, over and over again, until it gets corrected or healed. Here, we are talking about the world debt and how it could be literally exploding (Uranus-Pluto = explosive debt; Pluto in Capricorn = consequences of past behavior; Saturn in Scorpio 2012-2015, = the "Day of Reckoning").

What is it about Uranus and Pluto that we are going through together now? I don't know. None of us do, because we've never been through something quite like this. We can feel it, we experience it, we see it happening all around us and all over the world. We know NOW, and we know the future is going to be exciting and probably dramatic, but the form it will take? It's shape-shifting. As I look at this new world with these new eyes, it's all shape-shifting, and I know on some level, that's true for most of you.

Personal update: I still see things in multiple images. My vision seems like it is getting a little better some days. But I still see multiple images. I am adjusting to it, and still have faith that I will see normal again soon. And beyond that, I see many things differently. It's like a new world. I want to thank so many of you for your wonderful letters of encouragement these past six weeks. You are amazing. My life is amazing because of people like you. I will continue to write and hopefully guide wisely (or at least entertainingly), as long as I can. I suspect I will continue on for at least 19 more years. And I expect these to be my most exciting and illuminating 19 years of this lifetime. Yours too, I hope.

Announcements

Our new 2012 MMA Catalogue is now out!! You can download this catalogue directly at http://www.mmacycles.com/index.php?option=com_docman&task=cat_view&gid=41&Itemid=63.

Our monthly MMA Cycles Report, with a special report on Gold and Silver, went out last week. If you subscribe to this report and did not get it, let us know at once (email ordersmma@msn.com and tell them). The MMA Cycles Report covers our longer-term analysis of the U.S. stock market, precious metals, crude oil, currencies, Treasury Notes, and grain markets. It will come out Tuesday evening of this week. The MMA Japan Cycles report covers the Nikkei, JGB Bonds, and the Dollar-Yen. The MMA European Cycles Report covers the German DAX, Swiss SMI, and Netherlands AEX, each in English only, and will be available on Wednesday evening or Thursday. For further information and subscription, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/subscription-services/mma-cycles-report/. If you are not a subscriber, you can order a 2-month trial basis for only $50.00.

I am about to begin the update to "The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Volume 2: Geocosmic Correlations to Investment Cycles." I expect it to be ready mid-year. We are going to offer a ;pub-publication special price for those who order it before May 1. The retail price of this expanded and update book will be $125, but the prepublication special will be $75.00 (plus postage). For more information, please go to www.mmacycles.com, and scroll down the front page. You will see it.

Many of you have asked about the Amazon.Com Kindle version of Forecast 2012. It is expected to be out this weekend, so if you w at it in that format, check your listings on Kindle (Amazon.com) this weekend.

Copies of the printed version of Forecast 2012 are still available. There will be no additional printings, so when they are gone, they are gone. This year's book is 200 pages – our largest ever – and packed full of information about the economy, USA Presidential election, social and economic trends, and of course, financial markets with their all-important three-star critical reversal dates (the one and two-star reversal dates are covered in the MMA Cycles Report, as well as weekly reports). The annual Forecasts Book, written by Raymond A. Merriman since 1976, is one of the most unique, affordable, and accurate glimpses into the coming year. Utilizing the study of cycles and geocosmic factors, this annual Forecasts book outlines forthcoming trends pertaining to political, economic, and financial markets throughout the world. For further information, please go to the front page of our web site at www.mmacycles.com. There you can also place your order for the Forecast 2012. Or call us at 1-248-626-3034.

The E-Book version of the Forecast 2012 Book is now out as well in two different formats. The first is our own version, which contains both the text and the calendar-ephemeris for 2012. The cost for this is $55.00, or $35.00, depending on whether you also ordered the printed version too. The second is through Apple ITunes, which covers I Phone 4 and 5, and the I Pad. The cost is $39.99. It does not contain the advertisements or the planetary calendar and ephemeris in the back. You can now order it if you have an email address registered via one of these 9 countries (USA, UK, Australia, France, Canada, Italy, Portugal, Slovenia, and Spain). Just go to ITunes, and then "Library," then "Store," then in the field titled "Search," type in "Forecast 2012" or "Raymond Merriman" (without quotation marks). Or, go to http://itunes.apple.com/us/artist/raymond-merriman/id408289861?mt=11.

If you wish to hear more about this year's Forecast 2012 Book, please visit our YouTube channel at http://www.youtube.com/RaymondMerriman. There is a new video there highlighting three great market calls from last year's book, plus a preview of this year's book. It should be quite a year coming up!

The printed version of Forecast 2012 has also been translated into several different languages (including English) this year, and many of these publications are now out or will be this coming week.

Dutch: at www.markettiming.nl

Italian: at www.astrofinanza.com, and http://www.astrofinanza.com/mma/shop.html

German: at http://www.mma-europe.ch/

Japanese: at http://merriman.jp

Russian: at http://www.mmafinance.ru/

Spanish: at www.mmacycles-spanish.com.

Each of these will also offer the English version of Forecast 2012, as will our Chinese distributor at http://www.zzdcycles.com. "After reading the annual Forecasts and subscribing to MMA Cycles for the past ten years, I can say that Ray Merriman's forecasts are uncannily accurate and indispensable for the preservation of wealth. Nothing else I've seen compares. It is without a doubt the best perspective on the big picture, not just bits and pieces of the picture."

W.W., Investor and Teacher, Indiana

If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with position trading and aggressive trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers: "I am really pleased with your recommendations through the Daily and Weekly Trade Recommendations. I have used them to trade gold and silver stocks in my IRA. In the last eight years I increased my account from $60,000 to $712,000. Thanks for your excellent publications." -Bryden C., Small Business Owner, Illinois.

"The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 5: Price Objectives and Technical Analysis" is now out! The comments and reviews are starting to come in, and we will post them here over the next few weeks. The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing series is truly a life's work of grand proportion. Raymond Merriman has built the foundation upon which Financial Astrology can securely rest. Volumes 1-4 were more than a foundation, they were an edifice, and Volume 5: Technical Analysis and Price Objectives, is the pinnacle. Coupled with the timing strategies of the first 4 volumes, these volumes provide a complete trading methodology, brilliantly and logically presented, that any person who makes the time and the effort to understand, may trade profitably."

- Duke O'Neil, President, Capstone Capital Wealth Management, Boulder, Colorado.

The retail price of this new book is $144.00. If you are interested in this unique and integrated methodology for analyzing and forecasting stock indices, you can save big bucks by ordering all five volumes, or choice of any four now at http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/books/the-ultimate-book-on-stock-market-timing-volume-5/, or just go to www.mmacycles.com and scroll down to the announcement. If ordering all five volumes, you will save $99.00! For more information on this book, go to YouTube at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnplAS5m2AI, describing this new book. It is "the missing link." You may want to check this video out, as it contains some interesting long-term tips.

Events:

January 6-7, 2012: Zurich Switzerland. "Forecast 2012 Symposia" sponsored by AstroData. January 6 lecture on "Uranus Square Pluto: Consequences of the Debt Crisis for Financial Markets." January 7 workshop on "Financial Astrology and Perspectives for 2012: This workshop will discuss the projection of these studies onto today's financial, markets, including precious metals, equity markets, and currency prices – where are we in the long and short-term cycles and where are we headed. For more information, go to www.mma-europe.ch or contact ASTRODATA AG, Tel.41 (0) 43 343 33 66, or email info@mma-europe.ch.

January 21, 2012: Amsterdam, Netherlands. "Forecasts for 2012," 1:00 PM – 3:30 PM, followed by a 60-minute private meeting with MMA Subscribers. Sponsored by Schogt Market Timing. Call 31-(0) 294-415-917 for further more information, www.markettiming.nl. or http://www.markettiming.nl/en/producten/forecast-2012-amsterdam, or www.markettiming.nl.

March 1 and 3, 2012: Hong Kong. "Forecast 2012" on Thursday, March 1, and a full day intensive on "Financial Market Timing" on Saturday, March 3, with emphasis on Gold, Silver, Currencies, and Equity Markets for 2012. Organized by Earlthorn.Com at the Excelsior Hotel, Causeway Bay, Hong Kong. Contact Teresa Wong at 852-2529 1211 (phone), or by e-mail at earlthorn@hknet.com. A special 90-minute private meeting with MMA Subscribers will follow the workshop on March 3.

March 9-11, 2012: The 12th Annual Balkan International Conference, Belgrade, Serbia. Featuring a pre-seminar workshop on Financial Astrology with Raymond Merriman. For further information on this fantastic gathering, contact www.keplerunited.org.+381-11-267-31-92 or email info@keplerunited.org.

April 19 and 21, Boulder, Colorado. "Forecast 2012" with Raymond Merriman, plus a workshop on "Financial Market Timing," focusing on equities and precious metals. Sponsored by ROMA. For more information and registration, contact dralagifts@msn.com. Once again, a private meeting for MMA subscribers will follow the workshop.

May 24-29, 2012: UAC!!! The world's largest astrological conference. Taking place at the New Orleans Marriott Hotel. Go to www.uacastrology.com. There will be an awesome Financial Track, featuring some of the top Financial Astrologers and researchers in the world. There will be private meeting for MMA on Friday or Sunday evening on the top floor of the Marriott.

Disclaimer and statement of purpose:

Copyright MMACycles 2007-2012; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).

Archives

Previous weeklies (2006) are archived at www.olmta.com

For other language editions of MMA´s weekly comments:

Chinese : www.zzdcycles.com
Dutch : www.markettiming.nl (Nederlands)
German : www.mma-europe.ch (Deutch)
Japanese : www.merriman.jp
Polish : www.astrobiznes.pl (Polska)
Russian : www.urania.ru
Serbian : www.mma-balkan.com
Spanish : www.mmacycles-spanish.com (Español)

Dollar strength, euro & yen weakness, may be start of cyclic Elliott Wave trends: Tony Caldaro 1/9/12 special report

2012-01-10T00:06:00.006-05:00

The U.S. dollar has moved from its low, then weakened but this may be merely a pullback in the greenback's new trend up. This according to Tony Caldaro's special report of Jan. 9, detailing analysis of the dollar, euro, yen, Swiss franc and implications for other currencies. In the past, the U.S. stock markets sometimes went up with a stronger dollar, so it doesn't have to be bearish. But it's important for investors and trafers to be aware of, either way. Many people expect the dollar to dwindle. Therefore, this idea that it will strengthen on a cyclical, longer-term basis will catch many off-guard as it unfolds.

Like any longer-term trend, this one will have counter-trend moves occasionally. So how you react to it and work with it will be a matter of your investing and trading timeframe and style. The portion I quoted below relates to the euro, since that's much in view nowadays. The bigger point is that there are big-picture trends at work, and they will influence the direction for the months and years ahead.

You'll want to read Tony's entire article explaining the longer-term cycles in these currencies. So below is a a link to that, along with a small excerpt from this special Objective Elliott Wave report to whet your appetite (thanks Tony!). You can always find his daily, weekend and special topical updates via his tweets as @OEWtony on Twitter, linking to his OEW website http://caldaro.wordpress.com/, or right here in the OEW feed at lower right side of the page):
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USD and Foreign currency update | the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on

January 9, 2012
by Tony Caldaro

The EURUSD pair peaked in 2008 at 160.20. Since then it completed another set of ABC Primary waves with lower and lower highs. This is somewhat similar to the price action in the 1990′s. With a long term downtrend now confirmed in this pair, we expect the current decline to continue until it hits around 116. A bear market rally should follow at that point into the 129-133 range by 2013. After that a decline to around 82, or more, into 2018.

What the technical charts warn for $SPX, bonds, dollar and gold: Andre Gratian's 1/8/12 Turning Points update

2012-01-08T19:28:00.008-05:00

I'm glad to share Andre Gratian's latest Market Turning Points update. Below you'll see what he's describing for stocks, bonds, the dollar and gold - based on various technicals and sentiment including the VIX (thanks again, Andre!). You can get more info about Andre's work at his website (including his intraday update subscriber series), at http://www.marketurningpoints.com/. And now, Andre's update (click any of his charts to see it as a larger image):

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January 8, 2012

Market Turning Points
Week-end Report
By Andre Gratian

ANOTHER PAUSE?

Precision timing for all time frames through a 3-dimensional approach to technical analysis: Cycles - Breadth - P&F and Fibonacci price projections, and occasional Elliott Wave analysis

“By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again, and again, and again -- and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another’s, and each obeying its own law … The same Nature which delights in periodical repetition in the sky is the Nature which orders the affairs of the earth. Let us not underrate the value of that hint." -- Mark Twain

Current position of the market

SPX: Very Long-term trend – The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into 2014.

SPX: Intermediate trend – Intermediate uptrend still intact, but short-term top likely soon.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.

Daily market analysis of the short term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at ajg@cybertrails.com.

Market Overview

Last week, as expected, the indices continued the uptrend that was started in early October, when the 3-yr cycle made its low and the SPX reversed its decline from 1370 at 1075, with a spectacular 217-point rally to 1292 in less than three weeks. This was followed by a .618 retracement to 1159. Subsequently, the uptrend resumed, but at a much more subdued pace until last week when the index got back within eight points of the late October top.

The recovery high of 1284.62 was reached on the first trading day of the new year, last Tuesday. Since then, the SPX has been struggling, along with the DJIA and the Russell, but the QQQ has forged ahead making a new high on Friday, while the VIX came within 24 cents of its recent low.

Clearly, we have a short-term fragmented market. The Dow Jones Industrials and Transportation are the only major indices which have surpassed their October highs but, over the long term, the QQQ (NDX) remains the strongest equity index since the 2009 low, with the DJIA a close second.

With their daily indicators overbought, equity indices are in need of a near-term correction. But since there is no sign of negative divergence in any of them, I would expect it to be a short-lived 3-5 days before there is another attempt at resuming the rally. If negative divergence does develop in the daily momentum indicators, a longer correction could ensue. From a cyclical standpoint, the 3rd or 4th week in January appears to be better suited to bring about a short-term top than the current time frame.

Chart analysis

We’ll start with the Daily Chart of the SPX.

Longer-term you can see how the band of resistance between 1260 and 1370 has halted the rally from the 1075 low. The intermediate trend from that level is confined to a wide channel which is marked by two purple trend lines. The lows of that trend have recently been accelerating upward, which would be bullish, except for the fact that the tops have been limited to the high of the first rally. If the SPX can overcome 1292, it could challenge the red downtrend line which is currently at about 1335. Considering the status of the indicators, that would be a tall order right now.

Not only is the MSO overbought, but the A/D indicator is showing negative divergence. The trend lines on the indicators match the trend lines from the secondary bottom of 11/28. If they are broken, it will be a preliminary sell signal, especially since this would also take them below the horizontal red line which marks their former near-term low. Normally, when this happens, there is one more price rally which goes to a new high, but which fails to make a new high in the indicators. That creates negative divergence and signals that the index is ready to make a short-term top. Although this is not a sure thing, I am assuming that since this process is still taking place, we have not yet made the final high of the rally, and the SPX will still have a chance to get up to its 1293-94 target.

The Hourly Chart shows more clearly the deceleration pattern which has taken place in the SPX over the past week. It could be the type of distribution that signals a top, but it could also be a re-accumulation pattern before the index moves to a new high.

For now, it looks as if the uptrend is shifting from the green channel to the black one. The pink horizontal line at 1259 shows a potential target for the correction -- if it comes right away. It was determined by a P&F count of the right half of the pattern. It also corresponds to a move down to the bottom trend line of the expanded channel where it would find some additional support from a return to the broken red downtrend line and, slightly lower, from the 200-hr MA which is now rising once again.

Something else to consider is that, with the sideways price pattern, the indicators have already had an opportunity to correct their overbought conditions, and are now closer to the bottom of their range, meaning that it would take very little price correction to get them ready, once again, to give a buy signal.

Another reason that I do not expect a major decline from here is that, from a purely technical perspective, there are plenty of other trend and channel lines that would have to be broken (including a lower one that is not shown on the chart). These are all in uptrends and would be likely to provide support if the decline should extend to their levels. There are also other bullish factors that have been mentioned before which will be addressed later.

Cycles

A minor cycle which is due in the middle of the month is probably getting ready to pull prices down for a few days.

Breadth

The Summation Index (courtesy StockCharts.com) continues to move up, along with its RSI. As long as it does not turn down, we cannot assume that a top has been made -- even a short-term top. The other thing is that, in a market uptrend, the RSI tends to become overbought before rolling over. In this case, the RSI is getting close to becoming overbought, but is not, yet. That pretty much confirms the picture given by the SPX charts, above.

Sentiment

The VIX (above) is becoming my sentiment indicator par excellence. In the past, I had casually looked at it when I compared it to the stock market, but lately, I have delved into its subtleties and discovered what an accurate forecaster of market trends and reversals it is. Its recent performance, including Friday’s, is one of the reasons I believe that the market is not ready for an important top at this time.

A Weekly Chart does not change much from week to week but, as you can see, last week the VIX went down again, thereby confirming the continuing uptrend in the equity indices. In the last issue, I showed you in great detail what is needed for the VIX to signal that it is ready to call a market top: 1) It must turn up, and 2) this does not normally happen unless positive divergence has materialized in its indicators.

Look at the indicators! Are they signaling a market top? The answer is clearly, No! So we won’t rush into making a premature forecast, but we will wait for a clear signal.

BONDS (TLT)

Because TLT has also been such a good predictor of market turns in the past, it also deserves our scrutiny every week. Last week, I showed its weekly chart. This week, I will show the Daily one.

This chart turned a tad more negative, last week. The previous week, the index breached its intermediate uptrend line from July, found support on the channel line, and bounced back inside the channel at the end of the week. Last week, TLT gapped down, exited its intermediate channel more forcefully, and closed outside of it.

Let’s be clear, the index is not yet in a downtrend. It is simply making a move sideways which could either be accumulation or distribution. The indicators are suggesting that the odds favor the latter. In fact, its chart is very similar to GLD’s daily chart (below) about a month ago, and there is a good possibility that it will turn out the same way in the weeks ahead. Last week, the indicators made a new low, which increased the negative divergence in the MACD. This is an indication that TLT is probably ready to roll over and continue its intermediate correction. For now, the P&F chart is calling for a decline to about 110. It may be adjusted in the days ahead.

UUP (Dollar ETF)

The Daily Chart of UUP shows the index continuing on its trek upward into what is most likely an inverted 25-d cycle top which could come as early as Monday. It is also approaching an unfilled gap (light blue lines) which dates back to January of last year and which, after a little consolidation, it may try to fill.

The weekly indicators are overbought, but have neither turned down, nor given a sell signal, so we must still think of the trend as being up. This is obvious on this chart. The index is in a short-term uptrend (green channel) within a longer uptrend. From the behavior of the indicators, we can conclude that the short-term trend is about to end, probably when it reaches the top of the 25-d cycle inversion.

How will this affect the performance of the SPX? Although the path of UUP (i.e. the US $) has not always shown a marked inversion to the SPX, is has still remained essentially consistent. In the past four days, the strength in the dollar has only managed to keep the SPX in a sideways trend instead of turning it down. And the QQQ ignored it completely by having a nice move up last week. Perhaps traders feel that the dollar’s little burst of strength is a blow-off move into the 25-d cycle high; that it is not the beginning of a significant move, and that when the dollar turns down early next week, the SPX, DJIA, and Russell -- which spent last week consolidating -- will be ready to continue their uptrends.

This is another reason why I do not think that we are at an important top.

GLD (ETF for gold)

Some comments on gold’s recent action seem appropriate in order to keep it in the proper perspective. Let’s look at the Weekly and Daily Charts side by side.

I briefly discuss gold and other indices in my evening Market Summary to subscribers. Recently, I pointed out the positive divergence in the daily chart indicators, which signaled a good bounce from an oversold level. This is the picture given by the daily indicators, but not by the weekly ones, and this is why I feel that a bounce is all this will turn out to be.

According to the P&F chart, GLD has a maximum potential of 160-161 on this run. After that, it will most likely resume its downtrend, possibly meeting its earlier projection to 141-143 in early February. By then, perhaps the weekly indicators will have progressed to a more bullish position.

Note: Because of the present tensions in the Persian Gulf, next week I will discuss oil which, according to the base that was made in 2009, has the capability of going much higher than its current price. If it moves right away toward its objective, it could mean that some sort of an incident will take place in the near future between the US and Iran.

Summary

The second leg of the SPX rally from 1075 started at 1159. It is currently looking for a short-term top, but may not find it until it has pushed a little higher later on in January.

Andre

FREE TRIAL SUBSCRIPTON

If precision in market timing for all time frames is something that you find important, you should consider taking a trial subscription to my service. It is free, and you will have four weeks to evaluate its worth. It embodies many years of research with the eventual goal of understanding as perfectly as possible how the market functions. I believe that I have achieved this goal.

I can’t resist sharing these two subscriber emails that I received recently:

“Hi Andre. I just wanted to thank you for providing the "best" quality service I have ever experienced. I have experienced them all and yours is a "10". You are a great inspiration.”
“Dear Andre, I wanted to let you know that I think your service is excellent and want to keep my subscription going. However, I am not sure of its status. Do I owe you any money - if so how much? I don't want to let it lapse.”

Going down? ChartsEdge 1/9/12 week forecasts for equities and gold

2012-01-08T09:49:00.005-05:00

"Going down?" (or up) was the type of greeting from elevator operators, way back when they were manually operated. Little bit of history there! After the high on Tuesday, stock indices mostly went sideways, and gold edged up to moving-average resistance. For a view of what Mike Korell's ChartsEdge forecasts, here are this week's cycle-based forecasts from ChartsEdge for equities indices and gold (thanks again, Mike!). These are mainly a guide for highs and lows, not necessarily absolute price levels. Their month- and quarter-ahead guidance, along with daily forecast charts, are reserved for subscribers. ChartsEdge incorporates computer-analyzed cycles, pattern recognition, data on solar cycles, geocosmics and geomagnetics.
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U.S. stock markets remain island of hope, so far: Tony Caldaro's 1/7/12 OEW update

2012-01-07T12:06:00.001-05:00

The bull vs. bear juncture in the U.S. stock markets continues its tug-of-war between deflation and reflationary ("inflationary") forces. Tony Caldaro reviews this and more in his weekend Objective Elliott Wave update, also addressing global stock markets, bonds, the U.S. dollar and other currencies, gold and precious metals, crude oil and other commodities (thanks again Tony!). You can also find his daily updates via his tweets as @OEWtony on Twitter, linking to his OEW website http://caldaro.wordpress.com/, or right here in the OEW feed at lower right side of the page):
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the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on
January 7, 2012
weekend update

by Tony Caldaro

REVIEW

2012 starts off with one interesting day, then returns to the inflection point. Overall, US indices did well for the week with the SPX/DOW +1.40%, and the NDX/NAZ +3.05%. Global equity markets were less robust as Asian markets gained 0.9%, European markets lost -0.4%, and the DJ World index gained 0.8%. US economic reports for the week were quite impressive: nine positive versus two negative. On the uptick: ISM, construction spending, factory orders, the ADP, the Payrolls report, the M1-multiplier, plus both weekly jobless claims and the unemployment rate declined. On the downtick: the monetary base and the WLEI declined. Next week we have the FED's beige book, retail sales and consumer sentiment.

LONG TERM: inflection point

The stock market continues its battle between the deflationary forces of this Secular bear cycle, and the reflationary forces of the FED liquidity cycle. Currently it appears balanced, in the middle, awaiting the next tipping point. While the US economy has been gradually improving, the European economy has been sliding down the slope of hope. Will another European sovereign debt problem emerge, sending equity markets worldwide lower? Or, will the FED come to the rescue, yet again, with another Quantitative Easing program?

When the 2011 European debt crisis first hit, the US market was just concluding its first failed uptrend since Mar 2009. When the crisis hit full stride in July and August markets worldwide dropped around 20%. Then, after some volatile weeks in August and September the EU announced, in the beginning of October, they would recapitalize the banks and resolve the crisis. The markets soared. Four weeks later the SPX hit 1293, peaking on the day of the finalized EU announcement. After that, the markets corrected while none of the plans were enacted. In early December the ECB could wait no longer and initiated LTRO 2 to recapitalize the banks. Now, more than two months after the finalized EU announcement, the SPX has climbed back to just under that eurphoric 1293 high. Since we do not believe the LTRO 2 program is enough to re-establish the bull market. Some additional liquidity will be required soon, or the stock market will roll over and likely resume the bear market.

From an OEW perspective we see two potential counts. We can count five Major waves up from the Mar09 SPX 667 low to complete a Primary wave I at SPX 1371. After that, the market corrected in five waves down to SPX 1075 to complete either Primary wave II, (a 38.2% retracement with an extended flat), or Major wave A of Primary wave II. The three wave rally from that low can be counted as an ongoing ABC Major wave B, or a Major 1-2 and Intermediate wave i. The answer to this dilemna may not be resolved by the waves themselves. But by the actions, or inactions, of the EU and/or the FED and ECB. Keep in mind, if the FED had not acted when they did we may have entered, and still be in, a depression. Massive liquidity ended the Supercycle bear market in Mar09. Additional liquidity was required, since then, to keep the bull market going. Until the deflationary pressures of this Secular bear cycle ends, possibly around 2016, reflationary liquidity is the only offsetting factor.

The SPX displays the count with the bullish outcome, and the DOW the bearish.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

Upon review of the technicals after the first week of 2012 we do see improvement. Our smart money indicators are turning positive again for the first time since August. This is important. Weekly and monthly RSI are rising. Eight of the nine SPX sectors are in uptrends. Market breadth has been improving. The NYSE percentage of stocks above their 200 DMA is hitting a higher high, and the VIX has been downtrending. Plus, 15 of the 20 worldwide markets we track are in uptrends, and the commodity market is uptrending. The SPX cleared the OEW 1261 pivot without an immediate reversal. Which is what occurred at the October high. Plus, the NDX/NAZ gapped above that potential contracting wedge formation, we noted last week, and made a new uptrend high on friday. Some of these are welcomed surprises! In response to these positive technical developments, we have removed the tentative bearish green overlay on the SPX daily chart. The inflection point is currently leaning towards a positive outcome. We would rate the probable outcome, at this time, as 55% – 45% bullish.

We have been counting the current uptrend, from the late-November SPX 1159 low, as an Intermediate wave one of Major wave 3 of Primary III on the SPX charts. Major wave 1 looked quite impulsive, uptrending from SPX 1075 to 1293 in less than four weeks. Major wave 2 downtrended, in a corrective pattern, to SPX 1159 by late November retracing, precisely, 61.8% of Major wave 1. The current uptrend, Intermediate wave one, entered its second month on tuesday with the new uptrend high. None of the previous uptrends, from the May SPX 1371 high, have lasted more than one month. This is a positive. Also, the entire decline from SPX 1371 to 1075 lasted five months, and the current rally is three months old. This is a clear deviation from the 2007-2009 bear market scenario: when the market declined for five months, rallied for two, then declined for another ten months.

Currently only the DOW has exceeded its October high. The SPX closed the week about 1% below its October high, and the NDX/NAZ are about 2%-3% below their October highs. Should these lagging indices exceed their October highs the general market will likely gather some upside momentum extending the uptrend.

One last note. When we reviewed our proprietary smart money indicator this weekend we observed something quite unusual. During 2011 every foreign market we track, nineteen, turned negative with long term sell signals. But the US stock market did not. Remember, OEW still has the US stock market in a long term uptrend since 2009. We had noticed the weakness in the foreign markets around mid-year and anticipated a selloff in the US would likely follow. The US market then declined more than 20% into the October low, but ended the entire year flat. The foreign markets were not that fortunate. For now, it appears, smart money has been exiting foreign markets and moving into the US market. One thought comes to mind. Since the FED was the first to act aggressively during the2008/2009 crisis, the US will be the first market to recover economically.

SHORT TERM

Support for the SPX remains at the OEW 1261 and then 1240 pivots, with resistance at the 1291 and 1303 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week around neutral. The first rally to SPX 1267, after the November downtrend low at SPX 1159, was clearly impulsive and we labeled it Minor wave 1. The pullback that followed, to SPX 1202, retraced 61.8% of that rally, was clearly corrective, and we labeled it Minor wave 2. The current rally from that low also looks impulsive, and we have been labeling it with the subdivision Minute waves of Minor wave 3.

At tuesday's SPX 1285 high we can count five waves up from the 1202 low. This suggests several potential short term counts should the uptrend continue. First, Minute wave five will subdivide and extend. Second, the five waves up was only Minute wave one, and the recent 20 point pullback, the largest of this rally, was Minute wave two. Third, Minor wave 3 has completed, and the market is currenctly in some sort of Minor wave 4 triangle. We'll favor the first scenario for now. If the uptrend peaked at SPX 1285. Then it would appear the uptrend was an ABC rally off the November SPX 1159 low, and a five wave downtrend should follow to retest that low and form a larger ABC flat, ending Major wave 2.

Short term OEW charts have remained positive for almost three weeks now. Short term support is at the 1261 pivot, 1250, and then the 1240 pivot. Overhead resistance is again at SPX 1278, then the 1291 and 1303 pivots. With the narrow range of SPX 1265-1285 last week, the market should tip its hand quite early this week. Should the SPX clear 1285 early this week, the uptrend continues. Should the SPX break below 1265 early this week, a downtrend may be underway. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly higher on the week for a net gain of 0.9%. China, Hong Kong, India and Singapore remain in downtrends.

The European markets were mixed on the week for a net loss of 0.4%. All are in uptrends.

The Commodity equity group were all higher on the week for a net gain of 2.7%. Only Russia is still in a downtrend.

The DJ World index is uptrending and gained 0.8% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bonds remain in a narrow range uptrend, but lost 0.3% on the week. The 10YR closed out the week under 2.0% again, while the 30YR ended just above 3.0%.

Crude remains quite volatile and is uptrending yet again. It gained 2.8% on the week.

Gold has been rallying off the $1524 low a week ago thursday. The rally looks impulsive, volume has been good, and it has already risen $108 from that low. It gained 3.4% on the week.

The USD continues its uptrend from the July low at 73.42 (DXY). It gained 1.3% on the week. We believe our long term scenario for the major currencies continues to unfold. The USD is now in a long term, seven year, ABC bull market. The EUR, GBP, CHF, CAD and JPY all appear, some confirmed and others not, in long term ABC bear markets versus the USD. Will update this report soon:http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2011/08/15/foreign-currency-and-usd-update-2/.

NEXT WEEK

Monday kicks off the economic calendar with Consumer credit at 3:00. On tuesday we'll get Wholesale inventories, then on wednesday the FED's beige book. Thursday provides weekly Jobless claims, Retail sales, Business inventories, and the Budget deficit. Then on friday, the Trade deficit, Export/Import prices, and Consumer sentiment. The FED has one speech scheduled: friday at 11 AM FED governor Duke speaks on regulations and credit availability. Best to your week, and have a healthy and prosperous New Year!

CHARTS:http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987

Stock market internals strength waning as resistance tested: Charts review

2012-01-07T08:20:00.007-05:00

Happy first trading week of 2012! But get extra cautious because negative divergence has increased, so our Year 2012 Overview thesis of a decline into the middle of this month is looking more ripe now. Many equity indices and stocks saw their high on Monday and struggled with up and down swings the rest of the week. Behind the scene, we see deterioration in strength of market internals data. We won't know until February whether the stock market can ascend to higher highs in early March. First we have to brace for a decline that has the potential to retest the November lows around 1170's $SPX. We'll look at various charts of this, as well as a couple of my sentiment charts ($VIX).

First, the McClellan Oscillator which tracks the internal strength of the stock market basically dropped through the week; and its level remains well below that of October-November. In the lower indicator window, the McClellan Summation Index is testing its 50-day moving average, indicating that the longer-term outlook may be in doubt as well.

It's also noteworthy that Tom McClellan and his team are showing negative divergence in the McClellan Price Oscillator for the Dow Jones Industrial Index, their "Chart in Focus" this weekend at McClellan Financial, http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/.

Last weekend the McClellan folks showed negative divergence involving copper prices. Today, I looked at the Baltic Dry Index and see something equally concerning. This $BDI index of shipping rates fell sharply in recent days:

Resistance is illustrated in several charts. I'll start with charts showing how many of index stocks are above their key moving averages. The number of Nasdaq stocks above their 50-day moving average is itself testing up to its own 50-day moving average. And the number of New York Stock Exchange (NYSE or $NYA) stock above their 200-day moving average is testing up to its own 200-day moving average!

In both cycles theories, and good old-fashioned Dow Theory, the fact that not all indices made highs above last year's October-November highs remains a potentially bearish sign. Also, the Dow Industrials are tickling up to an upper price channel. As for the monthly - I've got an old chart with a bearish downtrend fork, and price remains confined within it. Testing it, even - so we'll see!

Finally, the volatility index while declining is both stretched, and nearing potential support. Sure, down is down until it isn't, but the $VIX remains well above the 2011 lows. It's below the October-November lows which looks bullish, but being so far above the early 2011 lows isn't so bullish necessarily. The $VIX is also nearing potential trendline support levels on my daily and weekly charts. These trendlines are a little roughly drawn but you get the idea:

Based on the VIX's overstretched condition, once it rises over the prior day high it can be a stock-index sell signal that lasts longer than the last one. And all in all with the negative divergences and price resistance shown above, the upcoming dip may be a significant one. We'll want to buy that dip when it completes, but we don't want to lose money on long positions while the dip takes shape.

Wake up for wild market as cycle turns approach: Raymond Merriman's preview to 1/9/12 week

2012-01-06T20:32:00.003-05:00

After a huge market-up opening Tuesday, the rest of the week had a lot of fast swings. Great for traders, but does it presage even more volatility soon? Raymond Merriman discusses this and a lot more in this important update on stocks, precious metals and other financial and economic matters (thanks again, Ray!). These preview comments are in addition to his more detailed subscription services mentioned in his announcements section and at his website. He also analyzes other countries' markets, economy, the political climate, bonds, currencies and commodities. He also offers detailed paid subscription services (daily, weekly and monthly available, at his website always at the right side of the page here). Here are Ray's comments for the upcoming week, from his site at Merriman Market Analyst - MMA Cycles Weekly Preview Comments:
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MMA Comments for the Week Beginning January 9, 2012

Written by Raymond Merriman

Greetings from Zurich, Switzerland, where the weather is cold but the economy continues hot. You know, in America there is a lot of political discussion about "American Exceptionalism." But we hear very little about the "Swiss Exceptionalism." Yet here is a country that is doing extremely well economically at a time when America and most of Europe is not. Nearly everyone works and has a good income. The national income tax averages about 21%, depending on the region where one lives, while the VAT (sales tax) is less than 10%. At the same time, Switzerland has all the social programs that America is struggling to establish and much of Europe is struggling to afford. Imagine that! Low income taxes, effective social programs that the country can afford, low unemployment, low national debt, high wages, and an exceptional standard of living. Is there perhaps something America and other countries in the depressed Eurozone could learn by studying the Swiss success story?

Review and Preview

The New Year began with a bang in most stock indices around the world. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, for instance, was up nearly 180 points on the Tuesday, the first trading day of the New Year. The high that day was 12,479, well above its 12,284 previous cycle high of October 27, and its highest level since July. However, neither the NASDAQ Composite nor the S&P nearby futures rose above their highs of late October, for a potential case of intermarket bearish divergence.
In fact, that was the story in many regions of the world. The Zurich SMI index soared well above its cycle high of late October, but the German DAX and London FTSE did not. The Netherlands AEX made a new cycle high by two cents. None of the major indices we track in Asia and the Pacific Rim, including the Moscow MICEX, make new highs, nor did the stock indices of Brazil and Argentina. Is this a sign of a market top, known as intermarket bearish divergence? Maybe. But we will need to see all these indices close in the lower third of their range this coming week to confirm. Otherwise the "Asset Inflation Express" has returned with Jupiter in the 0-7 degree sector of Taurus, a zodiacal location which historically coincides with long-term cycle crests in world stock indices.
Gold and Silver continued to rise following our special "buy alert" the prior week to subscribers as both metals made new multi-month lows on December 29. Gold has now risen over $100/ounce since that low and Silver more than $3.00/ounce. We will issue a special analysis on Gold and Silver in this week's MMA Cycles Report, which will come out Tuesday night to subscribers of this monthly report. In it, we will outline the status of the long-term cycles in Gold, and what it portends for the new year.
In other markets, the Euro currency fell to a new 15-month low against the U.S. Dollar, while Crude Oil soared to its highest level since May. This rally is occurring as the U.S. starts a discussion on banning imports of Iranian Oil and Iran discusses closing the Straits of Hormuz. It makes you wonder what is up as the USA heads into the election season of 2012, with an incumbent president seeking re-election in a nasty economic environment. The economy is going to be the major issue in this campaign season, and President Obama is going to have a difficult time defending his record there to American voters. Strangely enough, however, his strength has been in matters of national security, an area that many tend to consider strengths of the Republican Party.

Short-Term Geocosmics

The year started with a bang, and next week may too as it commences with a full moon on Monday, January 9. But more important than the full moon will be the transit of heliocentric Mercury in Sagittarius, which starts on Wednesday, January 11. This is a remarkable signature that historically coincides with very sharp price swings in many financial markets, especially Gold and Silver. Things could get quite wild for a few days, especially given that the transit of Uranus at the same time will also be in an exact square to the Sun-Pluto opposition of the Federal Reserve Board chart (founded December 23, 1913). There are some surprises coming up, In fact, with Uranus moving ever closer to its first of seven square passages to Pluto starting in June 2012, it's going to be a year (and even three-years) of a lot of unbelievable sudden surprises.
The concerns of next week will probably escalate into the following week when the Sun enters a T-square with the Jupiter-Saturn opposition (January 19-22), and then Mars turning retrograde in Virgo (January 24 through April 14). This portends a time of anguish for workers around the world who may go on strike, thus hindering the delivery of vital services and goods throughout the world, such as crude oil through the Straits of Hormuz.

Longer-Term Thoughts

"I warn you, though. Political predictions, economic forecasts, and astrology differ in only one respect. Astrology has a fairly good record of being correct." Former U.S. Secretary of Labor Robert Reich's comment in his latest Huffington Post blog.
Due to speaking responsibilities this week, I won't be doing a "Longer-Term Thoughts section this week, except to say: Jupiter has now turned direct and will be moving towards 7 degrees of Taurus on March 7, 2012. Sometime before that is completed, we expect the stock markets of the world to complete the crest to their last phase of this current 4-year cycle – and then begin a new bear market over the next 2-4 years. This is all based on the historical correlation of U.S. stock prices to Jupiter transiting through the signs of the zodiac, in a study that goes back to 1872. Stock markets bottom when Jupiter is in the first half of Aquarius, then top out when it gets to 23 Aries-7 Taurus, then declines into the time when Jupiter is in Leo. The low of March 2009 was when Jupiter was in the early degrees of Aquarius. The high since then has been May 2, 2011, when Jupiter touched 23 Aries. It is challenging that high again now as Jupiter is in 0 Taurus. Jupiter leaves this sector on March 7, 2012. If history repeats, then we expect the crest to be completed by then, if it is not already in.
We will discuss this further, and what to look for as this top unfolds, in our monthly MMA Cycles report, which comes out this week.

Announcements

Our new 2012 MMA Catalogue is now out!! You can download this catalogue directly at http://www.mmacycles.com/index.php?option=com_docman&task=cat_view&gid=41&Itemid=63.

This week's monthly MMA Cycles Report will have a special report on Gold and Silver. We will review the recent decline and what it says about the longer-term cycles' outlook. The MMA Cycles Report covers our longer-term analysis of the U.S. stock market, precious metals, crude oil, currencies, Treasury Notes, and grain markets. It will come out Tuesday evening of this week. The MMA Japan Cycles report covers the Nikkei, JGB Bonds, and the Dollar-Yen. The MMA European Cycles Report covers the German DAX, Swiss SMI, and Netherlands AEX, each in English only, and will be available on Wednesday evening or Thursday. For further information and subscription, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/subscription-services/mma-cycles-report/. If you are not a subscriber, you can order a 2-month trial basis for only $50.00.

Copies of the printed version of Forecast 2012 are still available. There will be no additional printings, so when they are gone, they are gone. This year's book is 200 pages – our largest ever – and packed full of information about the economy, USA Presidential election, social and economic trends, and of course, financial markets with their all-important three-star critical reversal dates (the one and two-star reversal dates are covered in the MMA Cycles Report, as well as weekly reports). The annual Forecasts Book, written by Raymond A. Merriman since 1976, is one of the most unique, affordable, and accurate glimpses into the coming year. Utilizing the study of cycles and geocosmic factors, this annual Forecasts book outlines forthcoming trends pertaining to political, economic, and financial markets throughout the world. For further information, please go to the front page of our web site at www.mmacycles.com. There you can also place your order for the Forecast 2012. Or call us at 1-248-626-3034.

The E-Book version of the Forecast 2012 Book is now out as well in two different formats. The first is our own version, which contains both the text and the calendar-ephemeris for 2012. The cost for this is $55.00, or $35.00, depending on whether you also ordered the printed version too. The second is through Apple ITunes, which covers I Phone 4 and 5, and the I Pad. It does not contain the advertisements or the planetary calendar and ephemeris in the back. You can now order it if you have an email address registered via one of these 9 countries (USA, UK, Australia, France, Canada, Italy, Portugal, Slovenia, and Spain). Just go to ITunes, and then "Library," then "Store," then in the field titled "Search," type in "Forecast 2012" or "Raymond Merriman" (without quotation marks). Or, go to http://itunes.apple.com/us/artist/raymond-merriman/id408289861?mt=11.

If you wish to hear more about this year's Forecast 2012 Book, please visit our YouTube channel at http://www.youtube.com/RaymondMerriman. There is a new video there highlighting three great market calls from last year's book, plus a preview of this year's book. It should be quite a year coming up!

The printed version of Forecast 2012 has also been translated into several different languages (including English) this year, and many of these publications are now out or will be this coming week.

Dutch: at www.markettiming.nl

Italian: at www.astrofinanza.com, and http://www.astrofinanza.com/mma/shop.html

German: at http://www.mma-europe.ch/

Japanese: at http://merriman.jp

Russian: at http://www.mmafinance.ru/

Spanish: at www.mmacycles-spanish.com.

Each of these will also offer the English version of Forecast 2012, as will our Chinese distributor at http://www.zzdcycles.com. "After reading the annual Forecasts and subscribing to MMA Cycles for the past ten years, I can say that Ray Merriman's forecasts are uncannily accurate and indispensable for the preservation of wealth. Nothing else I've seen compares. It is without a doubt the best perspective on the big picture, not just bits and pieces of the picture."

W.W., Investor and Teacher, Indiana

If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with position trading and aggressive trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers: "I am really pleased with your recommendations through the Daily and Weekly Trade Recommendations. I have used them to trade gold and silver stocks in my IRA. In the last eight years I increased my account from $60,000 to $712,000. Thanks for your excellent publications." -Bryden C., Small Business Owner, Illinois.

"The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 5: Price Objectives and Technical Analysis" is now out! The comments and reviews are starting to come in, and we will post them here over the next few weeks. The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing series is truly a life's work of grand proportion. Raymond Merriman has built the foundation upon which Financial Astrology can securely rest. Volumes 1-4 were more than a foundation, they were an edifice, and Volume 5: Technical Analysis and Price Objectives, is the pinnacle. Coupled with the timing strategies of the first 4 volumes, these volumes provide a complete trading methodology, brilliantly and logically presented, that any person who makes the time and the effort to understand, may trade profitably."

- Duke O'Neil, President, Capstone Capital Wealth Management, Boulder, Colorado.

The retail price of this new book is $144.00. If you are interested in this unique and integrated methodology for analyzing and forecasting stock indices, you can save big bucks by ordering all five volumes, or choice of any four now at http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/books/the-ultimate-book-on-stock-market-timing-volume-5/, or just go to www.mmacycles.com and scroll down to the announcement. If ordering all five volumes, you will save $99.00! For more information on this book, go to YouTube at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnplAS5m2AI, describing this new book. It is "the missing link." You may want to check this video out, as it contains some interesting long-term tips.

We also report that recently we sold out of the last copy of Volume 2. It will be rewritten and all the studies therein will be updated next year. In the meantime, we still offer the other 4 volumes. And if you pre-order the updated Volume 2, the cost to do so at this time will be $75.00. Once we get closer to completion, the new price will become $125.00. You may be able to secure a copy of this now out-of-print book on Amazon.com, but I do not know what the price will be there. Usually it is 2-5 times higher than the retail price. There is always a premium on our out-of-print books. They are in great demand – and for a reason!

Events:

January 6-7, 2012: Zurich Switzerland. "Forecast 2012 Symposia" sponsored by AstroData. January 6 lecture on "Uranus Square Pluto: Consequences of the Debt Crisis for Financial Markets." January 7 workshop on "Financial Astrology and Perspectives for 2012: This workshop will discuss the projection of these studies onto today's financial, markets, including precious metals, equity markets, and currency prices – where are we in the long and short-term cycles and where are we headed. For more information, go to www.mma-europe.ch or contact ASTRODATA AG, Tel.41 (0) 43 343 33 66, or email info@mma-europe.ch.

January 21, 2012: Amsterdam, Netherlands. "Forecasts for 2012," 1:00 PM – 3:30 PM, followed by a 60-minute private meeting with MMA Subscribers. Sponsored by Schogt Market Timing. Call 31-(0) 294-415-917 for further more information, www.markettiming.nl. or http://www.markettiming.nl/en/producten/forecast-2012-amsterdam, or www.markettiming.nl.

March 1 and 3, 2012: Hong Kong. "Forecast 2012" on Thursday, March 1, and a full day intensive on "Financial Market Timing" on Saturday, March 3, with emphasis on Gold, Silver, Currencies, and Equity Markets for 2012. Organized by Earlthorn.Com at the Excelsior Hotel, Causeway Bay, Hong Kong. Contact Teresa Wong at 852-2529 1211 (phone), or by e-mail at earlthorn@hknet.com. A special 90-minute private meeting with MMA Subscribers will follow the workshop on March 3.

March 9-11, 2012: The 12th Annual Balkan International Conference, Belgrade, Serbia. Featuring a pre-seminar workshop on Financial Astrology with Raymond Merriman. For further information on this fantastic gathering, contact www.keplerunited.org.+381-11-267-31-92 or email info@keplerunited.org.

April 19 and 21, Boulder, Colorado. "Forecast 2012" with Raymond Merriman, plus a workshop on "Financial Market Timing," focusing on equities and precious metals. Sponsored by ROMA. For more information and registration, contact dralagifts@msn.com. Once again, a private meeting for MMA subscribers will follow the workshop.

May 24-29, 2012: UAC!!! The world's largest astrological conference. Taking place at the New Orleans Marriott Hotel. Go to www.uacastrology.com. There will be an awesome Financial Track, featuring some of the top Financial Astrologers and researchers in the world. There will be private meeting for MMA on Friday or Sunday evening on the top floor of the Marriott.

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Archives

Previous weeklies (2006) are archived at www.olmta.com

For other language editions of MMA´s weekly comments:

Chinese : www.zzdcycles.com
Dutch : www.markettiming.nl (Nederlands)
German : www.mma-europe.ch (Deutch)
Japanese : www.merriman.jp
Polish : www.astrobiznes.pl (Polska)
Russian : www.urania.ru
Serbian : www.mma-balkan.com
Spanish : www.mmacycles-spanish.com (Español)