Charts and comments on the day

Today equities followed the ChartsEdge forecasts quite well, with the note that the intraday low turned out to be a slightly lower low before giving a nice daytrading rally before the indicated weakening off again. The ChartsEdge weekly forecast pointed to a lower point tomorrow, so we'll see. Interestingly, after that, their weekly forecast points to the Nasdaq being stronger into the week's end, compared with the S&P 500 - so we'll see on that also. Either way, the major trend remains down of course.

The dollar had another good day in keeping with this, as well as bonds, although the dollar's day was really better so I'm posting its chart (actually using the ETF chart, "UUP" below). Bonds were stronger earlier in the day - at least, looking at the TLT chart - then weakened off to close slightly lower. Conversely, gold was falling until it touched - or almost touched - my uptrend channel's lower line (as I posted at the UBTNB3 site during the day today). After that, gold came back up a bit. But gold clearly has its work to do if it is going to rally to higher highs such as the 1024 level or the 1192 levels we've discussed before. I'm quite neutral on whether or not that happens. I can tell you that if gold falls out of the channel, then I'm pessimistic (= selling) gold on the idea that it's embarking on a C-wave down that takes it under that 681 swing low it had marked before. Sure, I'd rather that gold put in a new high first, but let's not dictate what gold does - we'll just follow, especially since gold already met its minimum requirement for the "B" wave up we've discussed (and it would be foolish to hang long in gold if it's doing a C-wave down).

The banking index didn't put in a great day. Oil did a bit better, but didn't go over yesterday's high at least in the USO chart. Given the discussions of contango and backwardation, I've learned that the best chart to use for what I can actually trade in oil, is USO (although there's been some interesting news of regulatory investigations into that ETF, for what that might prove to be worth). There are other ETF's and so it may depend on whether your trading vehicle for oil tracks more closely to the futures or the cash market. I'm going to keep it as simple as I can and that means tracking the USO chart. It looked promising today, but that isn't the same thing as a swing trade trigger, so we'll have to see if we get more tomorrow.

And the first chart below will be the CPCE, as a way to check on sentiment. It backed off from what had looked like an extreme level yesterday. Meaning, there's plenty of room again for it to move higher again assuming we get another low point tomorrow: