Ariel: Did you post that chart upside down? Just kidding. And oh by the way Teaparty posted last month on his blog http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=100923&st=10&gopid=430925&#entry430925
Steven - I know what you mean! It started out working for the first hour, then ka-blooooowie! Well - when that happens, it's informational. Besides, as Mike Korell has reminded us, it is NOT supposed to show trend but cycle timing. That's a tough thing to remember though!
Thanks for that lead on Teaparty - I confess I do miss him, he is a chartist's chartist. [I also preferred his old avatar! It's at left - there's a copyright notice but it's so fuzzy, not 100% certain but can well be Teaparty's actual (c) notice - I just always "see" this in my minds' eye when I think of Teaparty or see his work.] I've tried to keep up with him but not always successful. Interesting idea he's got about the potential triangle - actually I had a similar idea for measuring off a triangle with those swing points although I was thinking of it for Nasdaq not SPX. As for his Elliott Wave labeling, going into a 3rd wave of fifth wave down - that certainly works for me, as I can go with that idea instead of the C-wave down. And further, Teaparty's chart points to 588 as the SPX objective for a fifth wave, and I'd be delighted to see that based upon my long-term Fibonacci levels chart, yet on the other hand I think Tony Caldaro's identification of 640 as significant Fibonacci retrace back to 1974 may also be a good level to look for. Losing 640 could get the SPX to lower levels like 588 - I'm going to wait and see if we get to and lose 640, before "voting" for the long-term count at that point.
Since I am feeling nostalgic about Teaparty (even more since Dom passed of course), I'll post here at left a cartoon Teaparty once posted to illustrate when he felt the markets were about to roll over lower. Especially if SPX is going to 588, it sure isn't too late to post this one!You know - the strength today really looked more like it goes with the Nasdaq chart from the weekly - I mean, the idea of strength into the second half of the week. But, I posted a chart of QQQQ in a channel and we'll see if it holds and sends it back down again. Or, if it breaks over that channel line and then we'll see! Personally, I still tend to see the S&P 500 as being along the way toward completing a move down to approximately 640. Meaning that I still interpret any move upward as corrective and temporary.
Looking across charts - the banks didn't put in a good performance (that mortgage modification "cram-down" didn't help, but the chart may not have been ready anyway), and that's one reason why I looked at Goldman Sachs. I feel that the banking index is likely to put in a new low soon, and then I'd be happy to call that a C-wave completion and let's see a real rally there. Maybe that would correspond to GS testing its channel lines and then rising higher too, or maybe GS will move along a path of its own - I cannot say, from a chart standpoint.
Oil was quite nice of course! Gold and the Yen both look to me testing support, and turned up some later in the afternoon so I still have "hope" (I know, it's a bad word for a trader/investor!!) that both will rally higher. In both, I will be looking to see whether or not we get new highs. Conversely, the dollar moved down after poking a new high earlier in the day (chart below). The $USD is now very close to my 91 target, and we'll have to watch keenly to see whether that's only a conservative objective and we get more - or will the dollar roll over from that level. That issue is something I've discussed in depth recently (use the "US Dollar" label for posts on that topic). It sure will be interesting if we see the dollar reaching this target objective, around the same time that the SPX may get to 640 and the Dow approximately 6420 ....
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