TRIN distinctly above 1, so TRIN experts can assess whether (and how much) it's bearish

Is this TRIN reading bullish or bearish? I've dipped into the resources at Stockcharts.com to get more information for some answers. Here's information posted by one of their chief technicians, Arthur Hill, at http://stockcharts.com/commentary/mailbag/mailbag20000412.html:

Q: It is my understanding that a TRIN above 1 is bullish and a TRIN below 1 is bearish. Is this correct?

A: There are a number of analysis interpretations that have evolved over the years. Richard Arms, the originator, uses the TRIN to detect extreme conditions in the market. He considers the market to be overbought when the 10-day moving average of the TRIN declines below .8 and oversold when it moves above 1.2. Other interpretations seek to use the direction and absolute level of the TRIN to determine bullish and bearish scenarios. In the momentum markets, the TRIN can remain oversold or overbought for extended periods of time.

TRIN = ((Advancing issues/declining issues) / (advancing volume/declining volume))

A TRIN above 1 indicates that volume in the declining stocks outpaced volume in advancing stocks and is considered bearish. A TRIN below 1 indicates that volume in the declining stocks outpaced volume in advancing stocks. Because of its inverse relationship to the market, the TRIN's scale is sometimes shown inverted. That's how I show it on the Market ChartTour.

I have personally found that using overbought and oversold readings to trade with the TRIN have not worked as well as direction and absolute level, especially in this momentum-driven market. In addition, overbought does not necessarily imply a bearish situation as oversold does not imply a bullish situation. I prefer to treat it as simply bullish or bearish and look for divergences followed by crosses into bullish (below 1) and bearish territory (above 1).

Cheers, Arthur Hill

Well folks, TRIN is definitely above 1 today, at 1.51. Even the moving averages on my TRIN chart are elevated, with the 10-day, 13-day and 20-day MA's all above 1.2 and the 50-day MA at 1.189. There was a point about a month ago when TRIN was at similar levels and it turned out that another bounce followed soon after. I'll leave it to my readers right now to decide whether there are divergences showing - not sure I'm seeing divergences. Will see - but we've certainly had a cross up recently distinctly above 1.