Saturday, January 24, 2009

Equities and bond markets looking to Economic Calendar and FOMC Jan. 28

Did anyone forget?! I think I almost did, but the FOMC meeting coming up this Wednesday, January 28, can be one fundamental reason for the markets to have traced out a technical triangle this past week!

I started to post the economic calendars for the upcoming week, at my UBTNB3 site, and basically plan to continue that. But the FOMC meetings are a great focus in the investment and trading communities. So I'll post it here (below).

I wouldn't go out on a limb to predict whether the triangle from last week will extend through Wednesday, or if we'll see an initial move from that (or even a head-fake) early in the week. From the technical perspective, I would stand by my comments on the alternative ways to view the Elliott Wave count, and also how those look against the larger big-picture context as I've been posting.

Last time, the markets reacted with a sharp movement up after the Fed. I remember remarking here the next day that it seemed like an inverse movement compared to the year before, but that I didn't expect a continuation movement afterward as we'd seen the prior prior. Well, that turned out to be correct initially, as the markets did droop following that ... but then we had the upward movement (with beginning-of-month and beginning-of-year new money?) that topped out January 6.

For now, I remain skeptical on the equities markets unless they can better the January 6 levels (even though I'm positive on the banking index as I've posted the past week, unless they take out Tuesday's low - there may be a way to reconcile this, which I can attempt tomorrow.)

At any rate - it doesn't seem far-fetched to think that market action for equities and for bonds coming out of this next Fed meeting on Wednesday, may help set the tone for the weeks directly ahead.


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