Sunday, June 14, 2009

Just in case you didn't already know that FAS and other new, souped-up ETFs can be bad swing trades

There's been discussion about how some of the new ETF's such as Direxion 3x ETF's are only suited for intraday trading, meaning daytrading as they even state in paperwork that I suppose they've been forced to issue to holders of those shares. Just in case you didn't already know, or need graphic proof of how poorly some of them track, here are a few examples. They even show that SPY has outperformed SSO! I won't attempt to graph out like this for all of them - you should do some checking yourself on any that you may be interested in. The first one below looks at FAS and FAZ, and how they track compared with XLF which is the "plain vanilla" ETF for the financial sector. The XLF is in candlesticks in this chart. FAS, which is termed the "Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x" is in the green line. FAZ (the "Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3x") is in the red line. You can see that FAS which is supposed to be the "ultra" ETF has only risen about half the level that XLF has risen off the March low. For what it's worth, FAZ's high of March was below its high of November, even though XLF dug much lower in March than it had in November.

You can see similar relationships in the second chart below, with the Russell 2000 ($RUT) in candlesticks, and comparing TNA (green) and TZA (red) - same comments apply.
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But maybe there is something about the time frame or method used for these comparison charts that isn't showing the picture correctly. At bottom is a comparson of $SPX with SPY, SSO and TNA, and it shows a tight fit among them. The right way to run the comparison is to track the actual percentages gained over the time period studied, in this case off the March lows. As I don't have time to run all those now, this will have to do - just some graphic indications that if you are using 2x or 3x ETF's and holding them for swing trades, you should do some checking to be sure that you are getting the performance you expect.

**UPDATE CORRECTION - thanks to a commenter - I was wrong about TNA and SSO, they have performed as advertised (3x and 2x respectively) off the March low. To check actual relative performance for ETF's you are interested in, use a ratio chart like SSO:$SPX or TNA:$SPX.

Further info provided - FAS and FAZ are constructed differently, and use options ... VIX has dropped rapidly since March, so the performance of both FAS and FAZ has been affected negatively by the drop in volatility. Which is why FAS and FAZ have not been good swing trades (unless someone does something fancy like shorting them, but my understanding is that short interest has in fact been rising substantially in both - would be interesting to see what might happen if that gets overdone and then unwinds).

THANKS folks! I appreciate the feedback and helping to make sure I get it right!

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