Terry Laundry has been looking at a more bullish view of the markets lately, as readers who follow his work know. And he's issued updates of his T Theory work at his T Theory website, including updated short-term and longer-term views available today. I haven't listened to this set of audio comments yet, just wanted to notify readers that it's available already today. You'll want to take a look at those as well as listen to his audio comments (linked on his site).
It is evident that he's expecting an upside breakout in the volume oscillator, that will go along with the formation of the new bullish "T" he's seeing that points to bull market action through August 2010. Since he's using McClellan data for that, it isn't surprising that he's seeing a movement similar to what I've been outlining with trendlines marked onto the McClellan charts for NYSE and Nasdaq (which I've been posting sometimes here, and more often at my UBTNB3 blogspot). That oscillator has been playing with the zero line, which is why I can see that an upside movement can support more bullish movement, but I'm concerned that a downside movement that breaks the lower trendline I've been marking onto that chart would signal more bearish action. Right now the McClellan Oscillator has been wedging into a sort of triangle look with those trendlines I've marked. When it breaks out of that, either way, I'll post it here of course!
It certainly is an interesting point of view, compared with others who are considering a bear market low that could show up anytime from very soon through mid-2010 (or later), with either one of Tony's two OEW scenarios (posted earlier with his update). I'm aware that there are some others, including Manfred Zimmel, also looking at a much more bullish scenario for the time ahead. Personally, I'd be much more bullish myself if the SPX had managed to get to 600 or just under. Also, I'd turn more bullish if the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports made it above their January highs; plus having the banks push above resistance would help a lot (and you can better believe that many big players are seeing that too - and IF there is an effective "PPT" effort going on, they'd be putting their shoulders into hoisting those several indices above those resistance levels). As it is, I'm weighing these different perspectives with others that I also respect; and it's nice to have some guideposts like these to mark the way.
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