Friday, August 7, 2009

SPX got to 1012/1014 finally! So here's the place to start looking what it does with this Fibonacci level

The S&P 500 has taken its time this week getting to the 1012/1014 area - so as I commented this morning, we'll go into the weekend once again with good questions to review. It's very common for Fridays to leave open significant analysis questions, and this is another great one. We already know that this level represents a test of key Fibonacci numbers that I've been presented for weeks (at least), and represents projections that Andre Gratian has pointed out as well as (independently of course) Tony Caldaro from the Objective Elliott Wave perspective.

The swing trade perspective now shifts from "we made it" with this 90-point move up from the game-changing breakout past 912, to "what's next"?! Nothing changes for swing traders without a trigger bar on the daily which will mean a close under prior day low, so obviously that cannot happen today. Intraday players can watch for any reaction on the hourly or shorter-term bars from the Fibonacci number, but it's very common for price to overshoot before showing any reversal. We saw that at the beginning of this week with the US dollar, for example, as it sank under 77.92 dollar index but then starting up again. So realistically, we won't see any turnaround until next week (assuming it happens).

There are higher projections including 1053 but the two big questions are, does it need a pullback first? which I know many are hoping for. And, if there is a pullback, can we be certain we get back here and go on to 1053? No guarantees frankly ... something we'll need to consider with the weekend analysis this weekend and really, next weekend once we see anything that may look like weakness.

Remember FOMC is next week too!

PS - remember also that Tony Caldaro does have an OEW pivot at 1018, so the SPX can test this level (which it seems doing right now as I post this additional note at 1:35 pm) as it does an overshoot of the 1014 Fibonacci level. I know Andre Gratian (separately of course) has a number in this area too. We can see Monday suspended over 1014, that's possible, and then it makes Tuesday into a potentially interesting turnaround Tuesday. And/or, it makes Weird Wollie Wednesday next week - the Wednesday prior to opex week - also a potentially very interesting day!

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