Tuesday, December 15, 2009

If you can like the banking index, your stomach is stronger than mine!

The banking index ($BKX, also the ETFs KBE & KRE) sagged down some more today. Not unexpected at all, given the bearish harami about a week and a half ago. Looking at the selling volumes on the KBE chart below, it's evident others are seeing it bearishly too. I haven't found an ETF that goes inverse to the $BKX so it seems a matter of shorting the KBE and/or KBW, or using options plays with them.

By contrast, look at the IYR (real estate ETF, chart below). It's managed higher despite some real selling volumes about a month ago. But is it going higher, or topping out? The answer could affect banks. Well I'm inclined to look for real estate to complete its rally crest - so I'm watching for trend reversal signs. The indicators are still in decent shape so I'm thinking it's a matter of time and we'll have to keep watching for that.

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