ChartsEdge (U.S. equities) map for 6/5; and some comments on the markets

Market Map for Jun 05

Posted: June 4th (at ChartsEdge), June 5th (here), 2009
Author: Mike Korell
Filed under: One-Day Market Map Comments to ChartsEdge »

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Thanks again, Mike and ChartsEdge!

Folks, a quick review of what's "working" - the daily maps from ChartsEdge have been very helpful in spotting likely intraday high/low and intraday cycles turning points. The weekly, more in terms of timing than direction, as the markets have used the cycles to gyrate trying to get higher since Tuesday (as the sharp movement higher Monday/Tuesday was shown on the weekly). Both Andre Gratian and Tony Caldaro, with their separate methodologies, have been showing projections slightly higher, so those appear to be working with the markets pointing perhaps to 953, perhaps to around 961. I've got 953 as the first of my significant monthly Fibonacci retracements (at .382), so those numbers interest me especially as price can either tag such a level quickly or can overshoot slightly before signaling whether a reversal is in order.

The idea of a high into the end of May, and in the time window mid-May to mid-June, is working too, and even the Bradley model seems to have worked to point a high in this time frame. June "new money" has worked of course as well. The next time frame that most funds will be thinking about will be the end of June, end of quarter, end of calendar half-year and in many cases end of fiscal year. So the end of June tends to be one of the more important (potential) window-dressing times. Doesn't mean the market cannot weaken off into the 26th, which I say not just because of the Bradley but also because there's some research indicating that the intra-month cycle tends to see a rise with new money at the beginning of the month, with any weakness about the 26th being generally bought by many fund managers.

Oil's working, in the sense that it promptly reaffirmed its bullishness yesterday, not even falling under that .382 Fib retracement and of course remaining well above the trendlines I'd marked on the daily. We know there are higher Fib retracements (and that P&F projection) as high as 90 (which would be approximately 50% retracement to its high). So it isn't too surprising to see Goldman Sachs (which itself retraced 50% to its high as of yesterday) projecting $85 for oil. If it really does spike up there without much pullback as Goldman describes, it will make a very interesting pattern on the charts - can still be a B wave but if you're truly an oil bull it can be something more, but we'll have to wait until it traces out before deciding.

Gold must be disappointing the gold bugs, so that's "working" in the sense that I've described reasons why it might not get to my 1192 projection, or even the 1024 idea. Sorry to say this, but I still see bearish possibilities for gold, so I still advocate letting it prove itself, to avoid getting stuck in a triple top that sends it lower for a while.

The dollar and bonds are showing signs of working but it's too soon to say that a trend reversal has confirmed. Once again, leaving room for further analysis over the weekend .... so remember it's Friday, make sure you go out for the day in a way that can help you enjoy the evening and weekend. And happy market navigating all!

*Update 8:31 am - so with the jobs report, SPX has now gotten to my 953, which is great (since the break "up" Monday) and allows us to start seeing early today how it reacts from that Fib level!