Sunday, April 12, 2015

ChartsEdge 4/13/15 week forecasts for equities & gold

Below are Mike's ChartsEdge cycle-based forecasts for the upcoming week in $SPX and gold (thanks again Mike!). His subscribers receive these for Nasdaq too, plus additional features and updates. His website is ChartsEdge.com. Sometimes he also gives weekly commentary too, at http://www.chartsedge.com/wp/ or by Twitter at @ChartsEdge. Totally un-affiliated with ChartLines; I just have the opportunity to share them here, and do. These are the cycle-based charts, meaning forecasts comprising an integrated view of cycles in this time frame. These are mainly a guide for highs and lows, not necessarily absolute price levels. Mike also uses other methods to generate daily updates for intraday, plus month- and quarter-ahead guidance, reserved for subscribers (I believe you're missing out if you don't see the additional forecasting he provides to subscribers for a very reasonable fee). ChartsEdge incorporates computer-analyzed cycles, pattern recognition, data on solar cycles, and geomagnetics. =============

Sunday, April 5, 2015

ChartsEdge 4/6/15 week forecasts for equities & gold

Below are Mike's ChartsEdge cycle-based forecasts for the upcoming week in $SPX and gold (thanks again Mike!). His subscribers receive these for Nasdaq too, plus additional features and updates. His website is ChartsEdge.com. Sometimes he also gives weekly commentary too, at http://www.chartsedge.com/wp/ or by Twitter at @ChartsEdge. Totally un-affiliated with ChartLines; I just have the opportunity to share them here, and do. These are the cycle-based charts, meaning forecasts comprising an integrated view of cycles in this time frame. These are mainly a guide for highs and lows, not necessarily absolute price levels. Mike also uses other methods to generate daily updates for intraday, plus month- and quarter-ahead guidance, reserved for subscribers (I believe you're missing out if you don't see the additional forecasting he provides to subscribers for a very reasonable fee). ChartsEdge incorporates computer-analyzed cycles, pattern recognition, data on solar cycles, and geomagnetics. =============

Thursday, April 2, 2015

Significant top for U.S. government bonds?

Did US government bonds just hit a significant top? Unless they're about to launch into a bubble, the answer is likely to be yes. We'll examine the long bonds index $USB (using some of my charts courtesy of Stockcharts.com). I had a Fibonacci extension target at $163 which was met this week. ($163 is the 138.2% extension measured from the prior high about $153 to the low about $127 (which itself had been a 78.6% retrace to the previous low).) Today's bearish engulfing bar may be the initial sell signal. Next would be seeing it drop under, and close under, $163. Here's how my daily chart looks after today's close:
The weekly chart, below, also shows substantial negative divergence, with StochRSI making a classic retest up to midline even though price is at a higher high! The recent drop before this push above $163 was about $12. Doubling that on another drop from here would be a $24 drop; although there are other ways to project a target (again assuming that it does confirm with a follow-through under $163).
The monthly chart shows that the U.S. long bonds index $USB made 3 big waves up, each about $37 in size, starting in 2007, in 2010, and then at the end of 2013. Did this meeting of the $163 target just top a third?   Symmetry suggests this is possible, especially with the negative divergence that even shows on the monthly chart.  $USB dropped $28 after the first wave up from 2007 crested, and then $26 after the second one up from 2011 crested.  If it now drops just $24 this time, to ~$140 it would probably meet its 89-month MA at about that price level. This is one hypothetical to consider.

Below is the longer-term monthly chart of $USB which shows this high is right along the top of the long-term channel up since the 1980's. I find it difficult to believe that these bonds will remain in this channel toward yet higher highs .... but we don't even need to speculate about that at this time. For now, we'll just watch for confirmation that it's turning down, for a potentially substantial drop. It's also interesting that this occurred the trading day before the April 4 Bradley turn date. That turn date isn't supposed to be a major one (that's reserved for early June); but noteworthy nonetheless.
So keep an eye on signs of confirmation that U.S. long bonds have made a top from this Fibonacci extension and symmetry target met.

Sunday, March 29, 2015

ChartsEdge 3/30/15 week forecast for stocks & gold

Below are Mike's ChartsEdge cycle-based forecasts for the upcoming week in $SPX and gold (thanks again Mike!). His subscribers receive these for Nasdaq too, plus additional features and updates. His website is ChartsEdge.com. Sometimes he also gives weekly commentary too, at http://www.chartsedge.com/wp/ or by Twitter at @ChartsEdge. Totally un-affiliated with ChartLines; I just have the opportunity to share them here, and do. These are the cycle-based charts, meaning forecasts comprising an integrated view of cycles in this time frame. These are mainly a guide for highs and lows, not necessarily absolute price levels. Mike also uses other methods to generate daily updates for intraday, plus month- and quarter-ahead guidance, reserved for subscribers (I believe you're missing out if you don't see the additional forecasting he provides to subscribers for a very reasonable fee). ChartsEdge incorporates computer-analyzed cycles, pattern recognition, data on solar cycles, and geomagnetics. =============

Sunday, March 22, 2015

ChartsEdge 3/23/15 week forecasts for stocks & gold

Below are Mike's ChartsEdge cycle-based forecasts for the upcoming week in $SPX and gold (thanks again Mike!). His subscribers receive these for Nasdaq too, plus additional features and updates. His website is ChartsEdge.com. Sometimes he also gives weekly commentary too, at http://www.chartsedge.com/wp/ or by Twitter at @ChartsEdge. Totally un-affiliated with ChartLines; I just have the opportunity to share them here, and do. These are the cycle-based charts, meaning forecasts comprising an integrated view of cycles in this time frame. These are mainly a guide for highs and lows, not necessarily absolute price levels. Mike also uses other methods to generate daily updates for intraday, plus month- and quarter-ahead guidance, reserved for subscribers (I believe you're missing out if you don't see the additional forecasting he provides to subscribers for a very reasonable fee). ChartsEdge incorporates computer-analyzed cycles, pattern recognition, data on solar cycles, and geomagnetics. =============

Sunday, March 15, 2015

U.S. dollar /DX $USD Fibonacci projections reveal up-wave target nearby

The U.S. Dollar index has been on a persistent uptrend since breaking out from a very long range. It's already retraced to the 95-96 area representing a 50% retrace to an interim high on the monthly chart, and is now approaching a 61.8% retracement level slightly above around $101.66-$102. But there's also another way to measure the likely Fibonacci target for this up-wave.
The Fibonacci extension of its initial move up from 71.33 to 88.71 can be measured, first as a direct 1.618 extension from 71.33 which got it to the 99 area. But better, measuring the length of the move from 72.70 as being 1.618 of the length of that initial move up from 71.33, points to 100.82 which is only slightly above where it is now.
This gives us the range of 100.82 through 102 to look for a completion target, at least for the current wave. Below is the weekly US dollar chart $USD (as charted at Stockcharts.com) showing it's already poked R2 level resistance, therefore another reason to look for some completion in this area. Naturally this would also impact the euro and other currencies, and likely bonds, not to mention commodities ranging from crude oil and gold to (at least potentially) agricultural commodities like corn and wheat.
The daily chart (below) shows how the dollar continued up after a triangular range, which was from its testing around the monthly 50% retrace level about 95-96. That recent consolidation range will also provide support around 94/95 (where the 50% monthly chart retrace had been tested), if it does indeed crest around 100.82. (Also remember, with a Fib target like this 100.82 projection, it can oscillate the number; plus, the Fib retrace levels 101.66-102 might need testing also, before this up-wave crests.)
Adding to the potential for the U.S. dollar /DX to have some respite from its persistent wave up, is that even the bullish point and figure (P&F) chart has registered a high-pole warning from last week. Its reversal marker suggests that if it loses 95/96 (not necessarily expected to occur), then we could see if retest lower. Clearly the 88-89 area would be support if it breaks under the triangular range area of 93-94, because of the prior highs there as well as the .382 monthly Fib retrace level that had been exceeded when the dollar broke above those prior highs. So the first place to look, assuming the dollar taps 100.82 (ideally) and turns, is for support really in the 95-96 range (maybe a quick poke in 94.xx's), then some effort to hold and retrace or resume upward. But if, after such effort, it doesn't hold above 94 (as I'd expect it will), then we may actually see it fall even lower (which I'd be surprised to see) retesting as low as about 89.

ChartsEdge 3/16/15 week forecasts for equities & gold

Below are Mike's ChartsEdge cycle-based forecasts for the upcoming week in $SPX and gold (thanks again Mike!). His subscribers receive these for Nasdaq too, plus additional features and updates. His website is ChartsEdge.com. Sometimes he also gives weekly commentary too, at http://www.chartsedge.com/wp/ or by Twitter at @ChartsEdge. Totally un-affiliated with ChartLines; I just have the opportunity to share them here, and do. These are the cycle-based charts, meaning forecasts comprising an integrated view of cycles in this time frame. These are mainly a guide for highs and lows, not necessarily absolute price levels. Mike also uses other methods to generate daily updates for intraday, plus month- and quarter-ahead guidance, reserved for subscribers (I believe you're missing out if you don't see the additional forecasting he provides to subscribers for a very reasonable fee). ChartsEdge incorporates computer-analyzed cycles, pattern recognition, data on solar cycles, and geomagnetics. =============

Sunday, March 8, 2015

ChartsEdge 3/9/15 week forecasts for stocks & gold

Below are Mike's ChartsEdge cycle-based forecasts for the upcoming week in $SPX and gold (thanks again Mike!). His subscribers receive these for Nasdaq too, plus additional features and updates. His website is ChartsEdge.com. Sometimes he also gives weekly commentary too, at http://www.chartsedge.com/wp/ or by Twitter at @ChartsEdge. Totally un-affiliated with ChartLines; I just have the opportunity to share them here, and do. These are the cycle-based charts, meaning forecasts comprising an integrated view of cycles in this time frame. These are mainly a guide for highs and lows, not necessarily absolute price levels. Mike also uses other methods to generate daily updates for intraday, plus month- and quarter-ahead guidance, reserved for subscribers (I believe you're missing out if you don't see the additional forecasting he provides to subscribers for a very reasonable fee). ChartsEdge incorporates computer-analyzed cycles, pattern recognition, data on solar cycles, and geomagnetics. =============

Sunday, March 1, 2015

Chartsedge 3/2/15 week forecasts for stocks & gold

Below are Mike's ChartsEdge cycle-based forecasts for the upcoming week in $SPX and gold (thanks again Mike!). His subscribers receive these for Nasdaq too, plus additional features and updates. His website is ChartsEdge.com. Sometimes he also gives weekly commentary too, at http://www.chartsedge.com/wp/ or by Twitter at @ChartsEdge. Totally un-affiliated with ChartLines; I just have the opportunity to share them here, and do. These are the cycle-based charts, meaning forecasts comprising an integrated view of cycles in this time frame. These are mainly a guide for highs and lows, not necessarily absolute price levels. Mike also uses other methods to generate daily updates for intraday, plus month- and quarter-ahead guidance, reserved for subscribers (I believe you're missing out if you don't see the additional forecasting he provides to subscribers for a very reasonable fee). ChartsEdge incorporates computer-analyzed cycles, pattern recognition, data on solar cycles, and geomagnetics. =============