Sunday, July 24, 2016

ChartsEdge 7/25/16 week cycles forecast for $SPX stocks

Interesting times in the markets--we like to consider cycles that may help lift or pull down on stock prices. Here's my usual sharing of Mike's ChartsEdge.com week-ahead cycles-based forecast.  He uses different techniques; this is only his cycles-based forecast for the S&P 500 stocks index $SPX.  The levels shown are mostly for illustrative purposes only.  His chart is an interesting composite of what his system foresees based on juxtaposition of long-term and shorter-term cycles (thanks again Mike!). His subscribers also receive his daily intraday sensor-based projections, and his week-ahead cycles forecasts for $NDX (which can be different) and Gold, plus month-ahead and quarter-ahead views for all three; plus additional features from time to time. His website is ChartsEdge.com. Totally un-affiliated with ChartLines; I just have the opportunity to share the $SPX weekly here. These are mainly a guide for highs and lows, not necessarily absolute price levels. Mike also uses other methods to generate daily updates, plus month- and quarter-ahead guidance, reserved for subscribers (I believe you're missing out if youu don't see the subscribers features for a very reasonable fee). ChartsEdge incorporates computer-analyzed cycles, pattern recognition, data on solar cycles, and geomagnetics.
=============

Sunday, July 17, 2016

ChartsEdge 7/18/16 week forecast for $SPX stocks

Interesting times in the markets--we like to consider cycles that may help lift or conversely pull down on stock prices. So here's my usual sharing of Mike's ChartsEdge.com week-ahead cycles-based forecast.  He uses different techniques; this is only his cycles-based forecast for the S&P 500 stocks index $SPX.  The levels shown are mostly for illustrative purposes only.  His chart is an interesting composite of what his system foresees based on juxtaposition of long-term and shorter-term cycles (thanks again Mike!). His subscribers also receive his daily intraday sensor-based projections, and his week-ahead cycles forecasts for $NDX (which can be different) and Gold, plus month-ahead and quarter-ahead views for all three; plus additional features from time to time. His website is ChartsEdge.com. Totally un-affiliated with ChartLines; I just have the opportunity to share the $SPX weekly here. These are mainly a guide for highs and lows, not necessarily absolute price levels. Mike also uses other methods to generate daily updates, plus month- and quarter-ahead guidance, reserved for subscribers (I believe you're missing out if youu don't see the subscribers features for a very reasonable fee). ChartsEdge incorporates computer-analyzed cycles, pattern recognition, data on solar cycles, and geomagnetics.
=============

Sunday, July 10, 2016

ChartsEdge 7/11/16 week cycles forecast for $SPX stocks

Interesting times in the stock market--a good idea to watch levels carefully.  As part of that, many like to consider cycles that may help lift or conversely pull down on prices. So here's my usual sharing of Mike's ChartsEdge.com week-ahead cycles-based forecast.  He uses different techniques; this is only his cycles-based forecast for the S&P 500 stocks index $SPX.  The levels shown are mostly for illustrative purposes only.  His chart is an interesting composite of what his system foresees based on juxtaposition of long-term and shorter-term cycles (thanks again Mike!). His subscribers also receive his daily intraday sensor-based projections, and his week-ahead cycles forecasts for $NDX (which can be different) and Gold, plus month-ahead and quarter-ahead views for all three; plus additional features from time to time. His website is ChartsEdge.com. Totally un-affiliated with ChartLines; I just have the opportunity to share the $SPX weekly here. These are mainly a guide for highs and lows, not necessarily absolute price levels. Mike also uses other methods to generate daily updates, plus month- and quarter-ahead guidance, reserved for subscribers (I believe you're missing out if youu don't see the subscribers features for a very reasonable fee). ChartsEdge incorporates computer-analyzed cycles, pattern recognition, data on solar cycles, and geomagnetics.
=============

Friday, July 8, 2016

Update: Is this Bearish Butterfly NOW the end of the 35-year bond bull?

Since I wrote a post last weekend, "End of the 35-year bond bull market as we know it?" - at http://chartlinestrading.blogspot.com/2016/07/end-of-35-year-bond-bull-market-as-we.html - U.U. Treasury bonds stalled only briefly and then continued up into this afternoon.  I checked the Fibonacci extension in the 30-year bonds index $USB because it went past the 1.382% extension level I'd expected.  I found that the long bond closed just 21 pennies short of the $176.27 that would culminate a "bearish butterfly" Fibonacci-based pattern.  That pattern doesn't require a trend reversal or even a pullback, but has a good likelihood of doing one or the other.

An hourly chart of $TLT shows how it maintained the current uptrend channel this week.  Breaking down from this uptrend channel (marked with blue lines) would likely indicate a turn or even the beginning of the long-awaited trend change.

Here's a weekly chart that I first set up tracking a head and shoulders that formed when the long bond reached $150, and many thought it crested out there.  Eventually it dropped to a 78.6% retracement to its prior low, then started back up again.  It reached a 1.382% extension at $160-$163, and then yet another at $170-$172 -- and now the 1.618% extension of its 2015 range at $176.27 (at least, closed 21 cents away from that on July 8, 2016).

The next chart is a closeup of the updated monthly view of the 30-year bonds index $USB (which prices similarly to although not exactly the same as the futures $ZB_f), also noting the $127.27 level that has just been virtually tested (or may be tested on a closing basis soon).

Sunday, July 3, 2016

ChartsEdge 7/4/16 week cycles forecast for $SPX stocks

Happy Independence Day!  Here's my usual sharing of Mike's ChartsEdge.com week-ahead forecast.  He uses different techniques; this is just his cycles-based forecast for the S&P 500 index $SPX stocks this holiday-shortened week.  The levels shown are mostly for illustrative purposes only.  His chart is an interesting composite of what his system foresees based on juxtaposition of long-term and shorter-term cycles (thanks again Mike!). His subscribers also receive his daily intraday sensor-based projections, and his week-ahead cycles forecasts for $NDX (which can be different) and Gold, plus month-ahead and quarter-ahead views for all three; plus additional features from time to time. His website is ChartsEdge.com. Totally un-affiliated with ChartLines; I just have the opportunity to share the $SPX weekly here. These are mainly a guide for highs and lows, not necessarily absolute price levels. Mike also uses other methods to generate daily updates, plus month- and quarter-ahead guidance, reserved for subscribers (I believe you're missing out if youu don't see the subscribers features for a very reasonable fee). ChartsEdge incorporates computer-analyzed cycles, pattern recognition, data on solar cycles, and geomagnetics.
=============

Time to sell the $NATGAS $NG rally, or has it turned bullish?

July 6 update:  NatGas NG has turned smartly from that $2.997, now the first real focus should be the June 23 low.  From that, it could rally some before testing lower.
The rest of the original post follows below:
Natural gas $NatGas (which some trade as $NG and others trade using $UNG) has reached the target of an inverse head and shoulders (inverse H&S, or IHS) pattern after digging a slightly lower low at $1.611 (slightly lower than its recent prior low).  So, many who bought or stayed long from its breakout above the IHS neckline of $2.304 might start selling it, either from the target met at $2.997 or on any sign of weakness.

Often the achievement of a H&S or IHS target is then followed by a strong reversal back, either as a partial retrace toward the "head" or even moving further.  This is because the H&S or IHS can be an intermediate pattern.  Since natural gas has been in a downtrend for so long, and its monthly wave pattern doesn't necessarily look completed, we shouldn't assume it's turned bullish.  One way to test that is to see if it maintains an uptrend channel in the coming months, so I marked trendlines for that on a monthly NatGas chart as you can see here.


On a daily NatGas chart I marked the IHS levels using horizontal purple lines, including the target $2.997, which was met on Friday (July 1).  We'll want to see if price spends much time working the $2.997 level, or turns down.  If it's not bearish but turning more bullish, then it might go higher to test monthly resistance at $3.18 or yearly at $3.24.

On an hourly chart of $UNG (since I can't pull an hourly chart of the continuous contract $NatGas), it looks like it thrust up from a triangle but exceeded the triangle target. Perhaps that was in order to push up to the IHS target; and $UNG doesn't track $NatGas perfectly either).  The thrust created an almost wedge-type shape (not a classic Elliott Wave ending diagonal triangle as best I can tell, but similar).  Using that angle for a parallel (rather than wedge) uptrend channel should help clue, if/when it breaks, that the current uptrend may have turned.


I've also included a weekly chart of $NatGas below, which helps show how this rally is retesting a previous triangular range it made before the prior lows. If the monthly chart downtrend isn't over, then natural gas might actually drop fairly persistently toward a lower low, rather than having another triangular chop, so I'm going to be rather skeptical of it unless it proves otherwise.  Certainly, traders should be careful in assessing what it's going to do next.

Saturday, July 2, 2016

End of the 35-year bond bull market as we know it?

*Update Tuesday, July 5:  I'd mentioned in this post that bonds could make another higher high today.  TLT already has. Check my Twitter feed @ChartLines for my updated trendlines on TLT hourly as it looks now about 10:00 am, and future updates as well.
Below is the rest of my Saturday post as originally written:
We may have just seen the end of the 35-year bull market in US Treasury bonds. While it could poke a slightly higher high on Tuesday, July 5, or even later this quarter, there's a good chance it's done, and a very good chance it's in the process of completing a very large crest to the long-term bond bull market. Some may perceive this as a sudden bursting of a bond bubble. While we can't rule that out, I think it's more likely we'll see bond prices pull back for a while (could play out over months without making a drastic lower low), then retest back toward this summer's levels.
I wish I knew to whom credit should be given
 for this great image.  Found it online and
couldn't see its creator.  It's a good one!
I'm sharing some charts in this post, which are based on my work charting bonds for several years by now.  Some of my work is based on Fibonacci calculations, and some using trendlines.  I also recommend an article I came across a few weeks ago, by Austin Galt, published at http://www.safehaven.com/article/41677/final-top-of-us-bond-bull-market-set-for-3rd-qtr-of-2016.  I've done my chart and technical analysis on my own, and don't know Mr. Galt's work generally, but he provided in that article a great big-picture review and chart-based forecast for the top in US Treasury bonds prices.

Hourly chart of $TLT may have completed 5 waves up,
including a final thrust after a triangle.
Although next week's R2 level might still be tested.
The ETF most commonly associated with US Treasury long-term bonds is $TLT, which I'm showing for the hourly chart here.  It recently made a head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern, dropped to the H&S target, then took off in a torrid rally as stocks dropped into Monday's (June 27) low.  Bonds and stocks don't always move inversely, so the potential for bond prices to fall and yields to rise doesn't work as a good predictor for where stock prices are heading from here.

But bond prices can have finished at least a small fifth wave into yesterday, July 1 (or next Tuesday, July 5).  With negative divergence on the hourly chart, and as you'll see in the daily, weekly and monthly charts below (look especially at the CCI (commodity channel indicator) and ROC (rate of change) indicators), bonds have been on watch for an important crest for literally months now.


Support for 30-yr bond is $166-169;
with even stronger support at $160-$163.
Daily chart of the 30-year bonds index $USB
(similar to the futures contract $ZB_f) shows
some negative divergence as it's been reaching
Fibonacci and inverse H&S targets.
The latest push up has taken long-term bonds up to a Fibonacci 1.382% extension of the prior monthly high-to-low range. The 1.382% extensions have previously provided the levels for the subsequent highs.  Also, the levels reached by the long term bonds the past week (and also 10-year notes $UST $ZN $IEF) have achieved inverse H&S (IHS) targets formed after exceeding the May high ($166 in $USB).

On a weekly chart of the 30-year US bonds index $USB, I drew trendlines about four years ago, and recently extended them.  Price actually jumped above the upper one; I'm guessing that may represent a blow-off into this important time window.  Notice that this also corresponds to the yearly "R2" resistance level for 2016, another reason to expect price to stall or crest and top out here.
When I did that work on this weekly chart to extend the trendlines, a few weeks ago, I also added the notes about the Fibonacci 1.382% and price targets focusing $170-$172.  It was somewhat challenging because prices had come down and many thought the top was in; but after prices exceeded the prior extension $160-$163, I knew the next extension to $170-$172 was on the way.  One way to help confirm bond prices turning down from this crest will be when USB goes back under $170.  After that, the $170-$172 zone will be important resistance that should hold for the long bond $USB.

The last two charts are monthly views of this 30-year bonds index $USB.  I'm thinking price will work its way down, possibly over several months, then come back up to retest near the high - but may not exceed the $170-$172 level that should be resistance by then. After all that occurs--possibly (early) next year--that's more likely to be the time when sharp drops in bond prices and a real uptrend in yields should occur. it will be interesting to see how financial markets shift, especially after the retest I described, once the trend change becomes apparent. After 35 years of declining bond rates, a prolonged period of rising rates could bring some inflation, and some consider a stronger dollar too. I won't try to get into predictions about that here, especially since higher rates can have a depressing effect on some assets like real estate that are typically financed with debt. But it is pretty easy to foresee troubling consequences for government debt--both the ability to issue new (and rollover) debt, and the need to allocate more taxpayer monies toward interest payments.

Sunday, June 26, 2016

ChartsEdge 6/27/16 week cycles-based forecast for U.S. stocks

Mike who runs ChartsEdge.com uses different techniques; here is just his cycles-based forecast for the S&P 500 index $SPX stocks this week.  This is an interesting composite of what his system sees based on juxtaposition of long-term and shorter-term cycles (thanks again Mike!). His subscribers also receive his daily intraday sensor-based projections, and his week-ahead cycles forecasts for $NDX (which can be different) and Gold, plus month-ahead and quarter-ahead views for all three; plus additional features from time to time. His website is ChartsEdge.com. Totally un-affiliated with ChartLines; I just have the opportunity to share the $SPX weekly here. These are mainly a guide for highs and lows, not necessarily absolute price levels. Mike also uses other methods to generate daily updates, plus month- and quarter-ahead guidance, reserved for subscribers (I believe you're missing out if youu don't see the subscribers features for a very reasonable fee). ChartsEdge incorporates computer-analyzed cycles, pattern recognition, data on solar cycles, and geomagnetics.
=============

Sunday, June 19, 2016

ChartsEdge 6/20/16 week cycles-based forecast for $SPX stocks

Mike who runs ChartsEdge.com uses different techniques; here is just his cycles-based forecast for the S&P 500 index $SPX stocks this week.  This is an interesting composite of what his system sees based on juxtaposition of long-term and shorter-term cycles (thanks again Mike!). His subscribers also receive his daily intraday sensor-based projections, and his week-ahead cycles forecasts for $NDX (which can be different) and Gold, plus month-ahead and quarter-ahead views for all three; plus additional features from time to time. His website is ChartsEdge.com. Totally un-affiliated with ChartLines; I just have the opportunity to share the $SPX weekly here. These are mainly a guide for highs and lows, not necessarily absolute price levels. Mike also uses other methods to generate daily updates, plus month- and quarter-ahead guidance, reserved for subscribers (I believe you're missing out if youu don't see the subscribers features for a very reasonable fee). ChartsEdge incorporates computer-analyzed cycles, pattern recognition, data on solar cycles, and geomagnetics.
=============