$SPX nearing new target as VIX, US bonds & dollar, & gold test levels: Andre Gratian's 3/18/12 Turning Points update

Technical analysis for the $SPX, US dollar & bonds, gold, and VIX - here's Andre Gratian's public update for his Market Turning Points service (thanks again, Andre!) about the stock market consolidation, what's happening in gold and crude oil, and what's with U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar. You can get more info about Andre's work at his website (including his intraday update subscriber series), at http://www.marketurningpoints.com/. And now, Andre's update (click any of his charts to see it as a larger image):

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March 18, 2012

Market Turning Points
Week-end Report
By Andre Gratian

NEW PRICE TARGET ALMOST REACHED

Precision timing for all time frames through a 3-dimensional approach to technical analysis: Cycles - Breadth - P&F and Fibonacci price projections, and occasional Elliott Wave analysis

“By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again, and again, and again -- and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another’s, and each obeying its own law … The same Nature which delights in periodical repetition in the sky is the Nature which orders the affairs of the earth. Let us not underrate the value of that hint." -- Mark Twain

Current position of the market

SPX: Very Long-term trend – The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however, that the steep correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.

SPX: Intermediate trend – The intermediate uptrend is still intact, but a short-term top is forming.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.

Daily market analysis of the short term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at ajg@cybertrails.com.

Market Overview

There are signs that the rally which started at 1159 is just about ready for a consolidation/correction.
Although there are higher projections, the SPX could pause at 1407-1411 and, if that is exceeded, at 1427.

From a structural standpoint, it looks as if we are completing a five-wave pattern from 1159. On a larger scale, this could be only wave 3 from 1075, and if that is the case, this would only be a short-term top; hopefully, a little more important than the one which formed at 1378. To start an intermediate trend correction, we may have to wait until we get to about 1475. This will be confirmed and refined after we are done with the short-term correction.

Even if we make a high in the 1407-1411 area, we may spend a little time building a topping formation. As of now, very little distribution is showing on the P&F chart and, on Friday, the VIX made a new low and the XLF made a recovery high. Neither one of these two indices appears ready to signal an important market top. The VIX P&F chart does suggest a potential low at about 13, and Friday’s 13.66 may have been good enough to end its decline but, even if the bottom has been reached, no base has been formed which could suggest that the VIX is ready for an important up-move. I’ll discuss those two indices in more detail a little later on.
As we analyze the charts, we’ll also see that their indicators are not quite ready to signal an immediate and significant decline. The reason is that professionals are aware that the bull market which started in 2009 is not over and that there are higher prices ahead – perhaps much higher! There should not be heavy selling at this level.

Chart analysis

This SPX Daily Chart is plotted in Heiken Ashi, a simplified form of candlestick. It does not yet show a topping pattern but, after viewing the hourly chart, we’ll see that a short-term top could be near. On this chart, the only thing that is beginning to show weakness in the trend is the MACD which has developed slight negative divergence.

Starting from the 1159 low in November, the price pattern has been contained in a bullish channel and appears to consists of 5 major waves. We are currently trading in the 5th wave of that pattern and, since it is nearing the P&F phase projection of 1407-1427 (taken across the 1220 base), we should be looking for the market to pause and most likely trade outside of its channel before the correction is complete.

Note also that (so far) the index only dipped briefly below its 15-dma without turning it down. It will have to cross below it more decisively before we can be assured of a top.

The Hourly Chart is also plotted in Heiken Ashi and this time, on the shorter time frame, the warning of a potential reversal has been issued. It is confirmed by the MACD which has already crossed after a stretch of negative divergence. But the MACD is so high above the zero line, that it is not suggesting important weakness right away.

What is perceived to be the “5th wave” – which may or may not be complete -- is also rising in a nice channel. Breaking below 1390 would be the first confirmation of a reversal, and below 1366 would signal that an end to the move from 1159 is likely. Until we do break below 1390, we’ll hold off calling for the end of the 5th wave, because it could evolve into a more complex pattern.

Cycles

There is a minor cycle due on Monday, but we are still looking for a top in the 13-14 week high-to-high cycle which has now reached its ideal time frame.

It is likely that the 22-week cycle caused the quick drop to 1340 and is pushing prices higher.

It’s also evident that the market is still benefiting from the upward phase of the 3-yr cycle which bottomed in October.

The top of the 36-wk cycle is due in the next couple of weeks and could keep prices from declining until then.


Breadth

The NYSE Summation Index (courtesy of StockCharts.com) has now broken the 50-dma and flattened out. Its RSI is oversold and the histogram has turned up. All this suggests that an important decline may not be imminent.

Sentiment

The SentimenTrader (courtesy of same) long-term indicator has rallied a little and neither it nor the short-term indicator are at levels which are excessively bearish -- another sign that we should not expect a significant decline at this time.

VIX

In February, the VIX started to make a nice basing pattern above 16 which turned out to be only a re-distribution area which led to lower prices. On Friday, the VIX got down to 13.66 (a new low) before it rallied a little.

Of all the indicators, this is perhaps the most important one telling us that we should not be looking for a significant top in the equity indices at this time. Its normal pattern is to make a base, followed by a successful re-test of its low as the equity indices make new highs. This pattern is particularly important – as I have shown previously -- when it occurs on the weekly chart. We have not arrived at that stage suggesting that not only are we not at a very important top, but that it is likely that there will be higher prices ahead.

Over the short-term, the re-distribution level which formed on the Point & Figure chart gave a projection of about 13. It’s possible that the VIX has now made its low, and has already started to form a small base at the 14 level. In the near future, additional basing would prepare it to finally rise from the bottom of the declining channel which it has been hugging all along.

XLF (Financial SPDR)

The XLF is another index which has a great influence on the SPX because the SPX contains so many financial stocks. It is difficult for the SPX to come down while the XLF is still strong. Like the SPX, it

is still in an uptrend which does not seem particularly vulnerable to an important reversal at this time with an MACD which is only showing minor negative divergence and is still rising.


BONDS

TLT, like all bonds, is beginning to break down. After crawling along its support line for a few weeks, it has suddenly let go and dropped below it. This is a sign that it may be on the way to challenging the bottom of its long-term up channel. For the time being, it’s holding at a previous short-term low which coincides with its 200-dma and the bottom trend line of a short-term declining channel.

While this level could hold it for a little while longer, the top formation that it has made looks bearish on the Point & Figure chart. Just the distribution phase that has taken place from its last top has a projection down to about 101. But if the count is taken all the way across the 116 level, that gives it a target of 88. Extending the count further all the way to the top could bring it down another dozen points. That, of course is a long-term count and it may be months before it is reached.

What it does suggest is that, in spite of the Fed’s insistence that it is going to keep rates low until 1214, bonds are beginning to smell a whiff of inflation which, although it is unlikely to get out of control for quite a while, nevertheless suggests that the era of super-low interest rates may be over. That, of course, will depend on future Fed policy.

UUP (Dollar ETF) Daily Chart.

The UUP is an index that should benefit from the correcting bond market, and the chart is beginning to show it. It has now broken out of its long-term channel for the second time and should move higher. Remember that the base that was formed between May and August of last year has given us a target of 25 – which is equivalent to 90 on the dollar.

The small asterisk below Friday’s low, marks the bottoming phase of a 25-day cycle which has done a pretty good job of guiding the short-term trend. If it is a low, UUP should continue its uptrend as early as next week. The alternative would be that the cycle inverted and made a high on Thursday, which would mean a longer consolidation period for the index. We’ll find out which it is from the direction in which prices move in the next few days.

GLD (ETF for gold)

Bonds coming down, and the dollar moving up would be a good reason for GLD to continue its intermediate correction, and that appears to be what is happening.

On a log scale chart, a trend line drawn from the 2008 bottom was broken in December 2011. That marked the beginning of the first important correction in three years. By the end of the month, the index started a rally which back-tested the broken trend line. Twice, it tried to penetrate it and failed both times. Since then, it has pulled back and has found a modicum of support on its 200-dma which, in conjunction with a filled short-term count to 159, could hold it for a while. If it is broken, then more important projections could come into play, sending the index to 154 and perhaps to 149. That could create a double-bottom from which GLD could resume its long-term uptrend.

The MACD has broken below its zero line and it may take a while before it can level out and position itself for a short-term uptrend. The 15-dma has crossed the 30-dma and both are moving lower.

If GLD continues to correct as long as it takes the dollar (presently at about 80) to move all the way to its 90 projection, it will be correcting for some time. There will be a better chance of this if the index moves below its 200-dma (not shown on the chart below). In spite of the correction, the longer average has continued to move up, although beginning to flatten. Should GLD break it again, it could put the 200-dma in a downtrend and prolong the correction.

Summary

The SPX is reaching an interim projection to 1407-1411 which could be extended to 1427. This could stop the advance for a while. But since very little distribution is showing on the P&F chart, the index may undergo a short top-building phase before a noteworthy decline materializes.

The fact that the VIX made a new low last Friday substantiates this kind of scenario.

Andre



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ChartsEdge 3/19/12 week forecasts for stocks and gold

A post-opex regrouping week? Here are this week's ChartsEdge cycle-based forecasts for stocks and gold (thanks again, Mike Korell!). These are mainly a guide for highs and lows, not necessarily absolute price levels. Their month- and quarter-ahead guidance, along with daily forecast charts, are reserved for subscribers. ChartsEdge incorporates computer-analyzed cycles, pattern recognition, data on solar cycles, geocosmics and geomagnetics.
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Snapshot analysis of markets progressing through bull: Tony Caldaro's 3/17/12 OEW update

As I'm on a sailboat now, for a week in the Florida Keys, the ocean swells make me think of waves in the markets. Glad to have Tony Caldaro's update this weekend reviews what you need to know to stay focused on the right read of the market (thanks again Tony!). He details the stock market, and reviews global stock markets, bonds, the U.S. dollar and other currencies, gold and precious metals, crude oil and other commodities, use his charts link at the bottom to view his charts for those. You can also find his daily market updates via his tweets as @OEWtony on Twitter, linking to his OEW website http://caldaro.wordpress.com/, or right here in the OEW feed at lower right side of the page.
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the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on

March 17, 2012
weekend update

by Tony Caldaro

REVIEW

A good performance by US and European markets as the US broke through resistance at SPX 1378 and rallied to 1406 on friday. For the week the SPX/DOW were +2.40%, and the NDX/NAX were +2.35%. Asian markets gained 0.8%, European markets gained 2.9%, and the DJ World index gained 1.9%. Economic indicators for the week were solidly to the upside. On the uptick: retail sales, business inventories, export prices, the NY and Philly FED, the CPI/PPI, capacity utilization, and the weekly jobless claims plus the WLEI improved. On the downtick: the budget deficit expanded, while import prices and consumer sentiment declined. Overall it was quite a positive week for stocks and the economy. Next week we get an update on the Housing market and Leading indicators.

LONG TERM: bull market

While our economic indicators remain below neutral, the economy continues to improve and the bull market continues to make new highs. Our weekly technical indicators are starting to hit extreme overbought levels, as the RSI is nearly 91 and the MACD is over 38. This kind of technical activity only occurs in bull markets.

The count from the Mar09 SPX 667 low remains the same. This bull market is unfolding in five Primary waves to complete a Cycle wave [1] of the next Supercycle bull market. Primary waves I and II completed at SPX 1371 and 1075 respectively in 2011. Primary wave III is underway now. Within Primary wave I we had five Major waves with a detailed Major wave 1. Within Primary III we have most likely completed Major waves 1 and 2, and are in Major wave 3 now. Before this bull market ends, likely in 2013, we still need Major waves 4 and 5 to complete for Primary III, and then, Primary waves IV and V. It would appear this market has a long way to go, in wave structure, before completing it bull market. As for price, we continue to target the SPX 1545-1586 range by 2013.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1406

Despite recent downtrend confirmations by 10 of the 20 international indices we track, the major US indices broke out to new highs this week carrying many international indices with them. Our latest tally now displays only 4 of the 20 international indices remain in confirmed downtrends. When this uptrend began in November at SPX 1159 we were expecting it to run into resistance between the OEW 1291-1313 pivot zone. It did, and took about one month to clear that area. Then we expected resistance between the OEW 1363-1386 resistance zone. Again the market stalled for about one month in this area, but broke out this week to move over SPX 1400. Now there is a large gap to the next resistance at the OEW 1440 pivot, and then another gap to the OEW 1499 pivot.

Also, at the beginning of this uptrend we expected a conservative three month rise and were labeling it as Intermediate wave one of Major wave 3. Now it appears, with the extension into its fourth month, and the rise above SPX 1400, this uptrend may be all of Major wave 3. We have been carrying this count, as an alternate, on the DOW charts. We have now decided to make Major wave 3 the preferred count, and the Intermediate wave one count the alternate. The counts on the SPX and DOW charts have been updated to reflect this change.

SHORT TERM

Short term support is at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with overhead resistance at SPX 1407, then the 1440 pivot. Short term momentum is declining from a negative divergence. The short term OEW charts remain positive from SPX 1365 with support at the 1386 pivot.

With the extension of the uptrend into its fourth month, and into the SPX 1400′s, we are likely dealing with a Major wave 3 uptrend now. The short term charts have been updated to reflect this change. The short term count is now as follows: Int. one SPX 1267, Int. two SPX 1202, Int. three SPX 1378, Int. four SPX 1340, and Int. five underway. Within Int. wave five we are currently counting the rally from SPX 1340 as Minor wave 1. The first level of fibonacci/pivot resistance is at SPX 1407: Int. v = 0.618 Int. 1. The next level is at the OEW 1440 pivot, and SPX 1448: Int. v = Int. i and 0.618 Int. iii. The last level is at the OEW 1499 pivot, and SPX 1516: Int. v = 1.618 Int. i and Int. iii. Since we are expecting this uptrend to continue into May the most obvious targets would be the OEW 1440 pivot, then the 1499 pivot. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mixed on the week for a net gain of 0.8%. Australia and India remain in downtrends.

The European markets were all higher on the week for a gain of 2.9%. Spain remains in a downtrend.

The Commodity equity group were mixed on the week for a net gain of 1.8%. Canada remains in a downtrend.

The DJ World index remains uptrending and gained 1.9%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continued their downtrend losing 1.6% on the week.

Crude remains volatile, is still uptrending, and lost 0.3% on the week.

Gold remains in a downtrend losing 3.3% on the week.

The USD is uptrending, but lost 0.3% on the week. The EUR is downtrending, but gained 0.4%. The JPY remains in a downtrend losing 1.2% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Housing is the primary focus of this weeks economic reports. On monday at 10:00 the NAHB sentiment will be released. On tuesday, Housing starts and Building permits. Wednesday we have Existing home sales. Then thursday weekly Jobless claims, the FHFA housing index, and Leading indicators. On friday, New home sales. The FED has a busy week. On monday at 9:30, FED director Killian testifies before congress on foreclosures and the housing market. On tuesday, FED chairman Bernanke starts his four part lecture on the financial crisis. On thursday, FED governor Tarullo testifies before the senate on regulatory reform, and FED chairman Bernanke gives his second lecture. Then on friday, FED chairman Bernanke gives a speech at the Wash. DC FED. Best to your week.

Stockcharts has made some significant changes to its public charts list. They require each member to resubmit their public charts list, with an initial limit of 100 charts. Since we currently have 228 charts posted, we will need to review the list and post what we feel are the only most important charts for now. Please bare with us as we make these changes. Sorry for the inconvenience. The new link is posted below.

CHARTS:http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Financial market rules changing, so trust but verify: Raymond Merriman's 3/19/12 week preview comments

Maybe stocks rose higher, and previous metals dropped lower, than Raymond Merriman had expected - but maybe he wasn't wrong on the big picture either. Maybe Mercury retrograde or other factors just gave a "bonus round" before the next set of moves. And I personally find it interesting that sectors the Chinese New Year astrology predicted would suffer this year, like air and transportation, really lagged in recent weeks. Certainly it remains great to benefit from Ray's unique blend of insights from financial astrology plus cycles, for all markets (thanks again, Ray!). These discussions of stocks, bonds, currencies, precious metals, crude oil, and other financial and economic matters are in addition to his analyses of other countries' markets, economy, and the social and political climate. Ray also provides detailed paid subscription services (daily, weekly and monthly) for the various markets, at his website always at the right side of the page. Here are Ray's comments for the upcoming week, from his site at Merriman Market Analyst - MMA Cycles Weekly Preview Comments:
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MMA Comments for the Week Beginning March 19, 2012

Written by Raymond Merriman

This is written Friday afternoon here in Le Provence, southern France, where I am licking my wounds from a grueling 3-week lecture tour in Hong Kong and Belgrade. Actually the wounds I am licking are more from being on the wrong side of recent market moves in stocks and precious metals, which will be covered in this week's Longer-Term Thoughts section. In any event, this week's column will once again not have the benefit of being written after the weekly close in the USA. However, all of our subscription reports during this period were issued on time and will be issued on time again this coming week.

Review and Preview

There were indeed more "Gifts from heaven" last week. As the rare but harmonious grand trine unfolded between Venus/Jupiter to Pluto and Mars in earth signs, equity markets around the world continued to rally. Euphoria abounds about the future of world economies and stock indices. However, we must keep in mind that the grand trine is passing, and all this euphoria is occurring under Mercury retrograde, which is about to retreat to Pisces. Is it real? Maybe. Can it be trusted and depended upon? Absolutely not. Mercury is a trickster all by itself. Retrograde and in Pisces, it is other-worldly in its capacity to imagine.

Precious metals and currencies vis-à-vis the U.S. Dollar fell rather hard again last week, and so did U.S. Treasuries. At least the part regarding a declining U.S. Treasury market fit the cycles' picture very well. The rest? It's Uranus striking again where nothing goes quite as expected.

Short-Term Geocosmics

Mercury continues in retrograde motion from March 12 through April 4. It starts in Aries, which is robust and assertive. But on March 23, the retrograde takes the trickster back to Pisces, where is can flow easily with its tricks. It may be good for dancing, charm, and romance, but it is not a combination that normally reflects the state of affairs accurately. Be careful about believing what you hear, let alone what you see. And most of all make sure that the message delivered is the same as the message received, for this is a signature of misunderstanding, miscommunication, and/or misdirection. What is really happening and what is it that they don't want you to see? And for that matter, who are "they?"

There is a new moon this week too in early Aries, which is near enough to Uranus to be considered a conjunction. Therefore we look to the entire period of March 22-29 as one of potential volatility and reversals in many financial markets, especially those related to interest rates and currency values. It will also be a period known as the translation of the Sun to the forthcoming Uranus-Pluto square. It will offer yet another preview as to what to expect from June 2012 through March 2015 when those two powerhouses are in exact square 7 times, due to their own retrograde motions.

One thing I have noticed on this tour is that many people who have been involved in partnerships (business or romance) are breaking up. They want to redefine (Uranus) or terminate (Pluto) their relationship. I suspect this will also be the case with world leaders, many of whom may be on the verge of losing their power (Sarkozy and France?). Now I think there is a connection here between the debt explosion in the world signified by Uranus and Pluto, and the difficulty in getting along in partnering relationships also symbolized by Uranus and Pluto.

Let's look at it from this perspective. Uranus in Aries wants unconditional freedom to do whatever it wants – even take on more debt that it can afford. It is, really, the wish to be allowed to accrue unconditional debt by spending without consequences. But with Pluto in Capricorn, there are consequences. Likewise in love, one of the parties seems to demand unconditional love, again a quality of Uranus. But it is unconditional love they want with sex or other perks, which like debt, is the domain of Pluto. Yet the other side – the Pluto in Capricorn – wants sex and love, but with conditions. Under the square, it will be hard for both sides to come to an understanding and agreement, whether it involves love, sex, or money. And with Mercury in Pisces coming up, we can also add to the mix the probabilities of lies and deception, so now we will have it all from late this week through much of April: money, love, sex, lies and betrayal. But will it be conditional or unconditional? Will Uranus or Pluto get its way? If both get their way (unconditional debt and unconditional love - with sex), it might work out. But more than likely it will be unconditional love without sex, or conditional love with sex – or conditional debt relief with restricted spending. After all, it is a square, not a trine. And with debt, you can keep talking all you want about how we need to spend more and more money to bring our debt down, but it is unlikely to work or be acceptable to those who demand an accounting (i.e. credit rating agencies).

Longer-Term Thoughts and Transit Tales of Woe

It's been several weeks since I wrote a personal transit tale in this column, despite the promise to do so while on this three-week tour. The fact is I got quite ill and just didn't have the energy to write much. I needed rest to recover. But now that I am in Le Provence (southern France) where the air is clear, the sunlight is magical, and the vistas offer spectacular panoramas of nature's early spring seasonal colors, I am healing just fine. Now, only my ego is wounded.

The ego. What a marvelously constructed psychological explanation for something that has very little bearing whatsoever upon outer reality, except from the point of view of the viewer. The world is what it is, and the only difference to that is within the distortion that we create about the meaning of "is." And the reason for that distortion is to protect or enhance some interpretation of our own self-image within the context of those two realities – the reality of what "is" and the reality of our own role in effecting what "is," and perhaps how other people might perceive our role in effecting what "is," as if we have some power to actually do that. We have some power to affect this illusion simply because we have the choice of how we wish to distort the presentation of our role in the world of others.

Back let's get off the philosophy for moment, for that is only another vehicle for the ego to distort what "is." Let's revisit Uranus, the planet that may be considered the great distorter of reality because under its influence, nothing goes as expected. What you think is going to happen isn't, and what happens is not what you thought would happen. So you have a choice: re-invent yourself and the future that you imagined, or have it torn away from underneath your feet. Your ground is not stable, and you better shift, or you will fall into the void. The fall will continue until you shift your interpretation of reality and your own role within the drama that is happening all around you. It's not just an ordinary shift. It is radical. It's Uranus and Pluto, arguably the most potent and radical shift of all planetary combinations. In the 112-142 year cycle of these two planets, they form quarter cycles (hard aspects) four times. One is coming up soon (June 2012-March 2015), but you can feel it now. You've felt for the past year, actually, since summer 2011 when they came within one degree (and the USA credit rating was downgraded).

Under Uranus, you will likely experience extremes. One day you are on top of the world. You are on the summit. The next day, you are in the valley – perhaps feeling as if it really the valley of the dead. Your world is at first wonderful and bright, and then just as suddenly it seems shattered. This is the nature of Uranus, especially in Aries, and especially approaching its waxing square to Pluto. This is the reality that many of you reading this column are experiencing, especially if you have natal planets or angles within the first 9 degrees of cardinal signs right now (Aries, Cancer, Libra, and Capricorn). During the next two years, this will shift to 9-15 degrees of cardinal signs. For example, if dealing only with one's sun sign, those born in the last 9 days of March, June, September, and December are under this cosmic spell, which at once may seem like a blessing but then a suddenly shape-shift into a curse. Or vice-versa. The good news is that bad news doesn't last long. The bad news is that good news doesn't last long either. So don't get complacent or arrogant, as if you are the greatest, unless you have a sadistic love for being shocked and embarrassed. You need to be flexible and ready to re-invent the way you imagined your future quickly. This is called "adjustment." It is an essential tool for surviving these times as we approach Uranus square Pluto, 2012-2015.

As far as my own life goes (and many of you with planets in early cardinal signs will identify with this), I have experienced the heights of being on an incredible roll for the better part of the last 2-3 years. I have Sun and Mars in early Capricorn, so Uranus and Pluto are treating my life (and your life too if you have this set up) like a Ping-Pong match. The calls of the high in Silver last spring, and the lows on Gold and Silver in September and December 2011, have resulted in making a ton of money both personally and for clients. So had the forecast of higher prices in stocks from September 2010 through May-July 2011, followed by the decline into October, and followed by the rally that followed into at least December. But the unexpected move of stocks higher and Gold lower – exactly the opposite of what was expected by yours truly - has resulted in losses of a half-ton. Thank God there were other markets that performed as expected (Treasuries, Currencies), to help balance the final ledger, but still…. This is Uranus and Pluto in hard aspect to one's natal planets. Exciting, but wild. And I am a Capricorn, stable earth sign, so I don't always like wild that way. But you deal with it. You go to Le Provence, drink fine wine, watch the sunset, and philosophize.

The good news is that you can reinvent your thoughts, and your own self-image under Uranus, and it becomes a new day. The sudden fall into the valley is usually followed by another ascent up to the summit. You realize that you cannot make a plan that can be relied upon. At some point, the transition you go through and the understanding of the meaning of these changes involves faith. You have to believe ultimately in yourself and your own tools, and basically make the shift in perception. The world just changed. The key now is a rising dollar, not a falling one, and under that reality Gold and Silver fall and stocks rise.

But here's another reality. Mercury is retrograde through April 4, and about to re-enter Pisces. Well, maybe that is not really another reality after all. Maybe what needs to be reinvented is the context of a dream. Or simply prepare to be awakened shortly to yet another reality that is not a dream. After all, this week's new moon is in early Aries. It's spring in our hemisphere. New season, new realities, new trends. Adjust quickly and recognize the newness of it all. If you play by the rules of the past, you fall behind. Jupiter is also now past 7º Taurus. For a detailed explanation as to what this means for stocks, please view the Forecast 2012 webcast. It can still be seen via our archives until March 20. Or via CD or DVD afterwards. The explanations from a cycles and geocosmic point of view are all there.

Announcements

The "Forecast 2012" webcast of Sunday, February 19 went extremely well. Perhaps it was our best webcast ever, according to feedback received. The entire broadcast is available as a historical archive until March 20. That is, you can view the presentation in its entirety – with slides, video, and questions and answers – as often as you want until March 20. The cost to get into the archive is $45.00 (no postage). If you would like a DVD or CD of the presentation for your library, they too are now available for $59.95 and $45.00 respectively, plus postage. Just go to http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/multimedia/dvd%27s,-cd%27s-and-archived-broadcast-of-forecast-2012-webcast-now-available!!!/. Or go to our home page at www.mmacycles.com and scroll down to the announcement. For those ordering CD's, a PDF file of the charts will be emailed along with the order. "I just wanted to say that Ray's presentation was EXCELLENT! Great presentation and the WEBINAR was outstanding. 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For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers: "I am really pleased with your recommendations through the Daily and Weekly Trade Recommendations. I have used them to trade gold and silver stocks in my IRA. In the last eight years I increased my account from $60,000 to $850,000. Thanks for your excellent publications." - Bryden C., Small Business Owner, Illinois. This month's MMA Cycles Report came out last week. If you subscribe to this report and did not yet receive it, please contact MMA office at once. The MMA Cycles Report covers our longer-term analysis of the U.S. stock market, precious metals, crude oil, currencies, Treasury Notes, and grain markets. The MMA Japan Cycles report covers the Nikkei, JGB Bonds, and the Dollar-Yen. The MMA European Cycles Report covers the German DAX, Swiss SMI, and Netherlands AEX, each in English only, and will be available one day later. For further information and subscription, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/subscription-services/mma-cycles-report/. If you are not a subscriber, you can order a 2-month trial basis for only $50.00. NEW! Now available Mini-Congress 'Outlook for 2012' on CD!!! Recordings of the congress "Outlook for 2012," held January 21, 2012 in Amsterdam, are now available on CD, with audio and PDFs of PowerPoint slides. All lectures are spoken in English. The following presentations are included on this CD: "2012 End Time of Dawning" by Irma Schogt (20 minutes);"Happy New Year" by Drs. Karen Hamaker-Zondag (20 minutes , regarding ECB and Federal Reserve Board); "2012=The Center of the Storm" by Antonia Langsdorf (20 minutes, regarding Mayan calendar and astrology); "Forecast for 2012" by Raymond Merriman (1 hour). Total length 2 hours, with PowerPoint slides sent online in a PDF document. Cost is $55.00 plus postage. Please go to http://www.mmacycles.com/the-news/about-mma/cd%27s-now-available-on-the-forecast-2012-mini%11congress-in-amsterdam,-january-21,-2012/, or www.mmacycles.com for ordering info. Copies of the printed version of Forecast 2012 are still available. The E-Book version of the Forecast 2012 Book is also in two different formats, through Apple iTunes, which covers iPhone 4 and 4S, and the iPad, and also Amazon.com Kindle. The cost is $39.99. It does not contain the advertisements or the planetary calendar and ephemeris in the back of the printed copy. You can now order it if you have an email address registered via one of these 9 countries (USA, UK, Australia, France, Canada, Italy, Portugal, Slovenia, and Spain). Just go to iTunes, and then "Library," then "Store," then in the field titled "Search," type in "Forecast 2012" or "Raymond Merriman" (without quotation marks). Or, go to http://itunes.apple.com/us/artist/raymond-merriman/id408289861?mt=11. "After reading the annual Forecasts and subscribing to MMA Cycles for the past ten years, I can say that Ray Merriman's forecasts are uncannily accurate and indispensable for the preservation of wealth. Nothing else I've seen compares. It is without a doubt the best perspective on the big picture, not just bits and pieces of the picture." W.W., Investor and Teacher, Indiana.

Our new 2012 MMA Catalogue is now out!! You can download this catalogue directly at http://www.mmacycles.com/index.php?option=com_docman&task=cat_view&gid=41&Itemid=63.

Events:

April 19 and 21, Boulder, Colorado. "Forecast 2012" with Raymond Merriman, plus a workshop on "Financial Market Timing," focusing on equities and precious metals. Sponsored by ROMA. For more information and registration, contact dralagifts@msn.com. Once again, a private meeting for MMA subscribers will follow the workshop. Please let us know if you plan to attend the subscribers' meeting afterwards.

April 27: Scottsdale, AZ. Evening presentation on "Political, Economic and Financial Markets Outlook for 2012." Details soon.

May 24-29, 2012: UAC!!! The world's largest astrological conference. Taking place at the New Orleans Marriott Hotel. Go to www.uacastrology.com. There will be an awesome Financial Track, featuring some of the top Financial Astrologers and researchers in the world. There will be private meeting for MMA on Friday or Sunday evening on the top floor of the Marriott.

June 23: Amsterdam. A special 5-hour workshop on "The Gold Market: Forecasting the Future Price of Gold." 11:00 AM – 5:00 PM, Victoria Hotel. Sponsored by Schogt Market Timing. This is a special workshop you will not want to miss! For further information and sign up, please go to http://www.markettiming.nl/en/blog/workshop-gold-and-silver-amsterdam for an exciting event in one of the world's most exciting cities at the most exciting time of the year: the first Uranus-Pluto square will be taking place then!

August 2-6, 2012: Midwest Astrology Conference, inAnn Arbor, MI, Holiday Inn. Pre-seminar workshop on Financial Astrology, Thursday, August 2, with Raymond Merriman. More details soon.

September 14-15, 2012: San Diego: Lecture on world economy and national election, and then a workshop on Financial Market Timing. More details shortly.

Disclaimer and statement of purpose:

The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.

This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author's understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle's analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.

It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.

Copyright MMACycles 2007; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).

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Levels for choppy stock market, plus gold, oil, dollar & bonds update: Andre Gratian's 3/11/12 Market Turning Points

Last week's chop was almost more like a roller coaster - we're pleased to have Andre Gratian's warnings on this consolidation. Here's his latest public update for his Market Turning Points service (thanks again, Andre!) about the stock market consolidation, what's happening in gold and crude oil, and what's with U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar. You can get more info about Andre's work at his website (including his intraday update subscriber series), at http://www.marketurningpoints.com/. And now, Andre's update (click any of his charts to see it as a larger image):

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March 11, 2012

Market Turning Points
Week-end Report
By Andre Gratian

MORE SIDEWAYS CONSOLIDATION BEFORE A NEW HIGH?

Precision timing for all time frames through a 3-dimensional approach to technical analysis: Cycles - Breadth - P&F and Fibonacci price projections, and occasional Elliott Wave analysis

“By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again, and again, and again -- and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another’s, and each obeying its own law … The same Nature which delights in periodical repetition in the sky is the Nature which orders the affairs of the earth. Let us not underrate the value of that hint." -- Mark Twain

Current position of the market

SPX: Very Long-term trend – SPX: Very Long-term trend – The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however, that the steep correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.

SPX: Intermediate trend – The intermediate uptrend is still intact, but a short-term top is forming.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.

Daily market analysis of the short term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at ajg@cybertrails.com.

Market Overview

After touching 1378, the SPX had its biggest correction since December 19, but it only lasted 4 days and was only 38 points. This was followed by a straight shot back up to within three points of the high. The QQQ even made a fractional new high.

With several cycles being active last week, it is difficult to attribute the market’s action to any one in particular. Although I had expected a couple of minor cycles to make their lows on Tuesday and Wednesday, they must have had some assistance from a larger cycle in order to produce as strong a pull-back. The SPX broke the minor support level of 1353, but could not get beyond the more important one of 1340, which is the one that will have to be penetrated before we can have a protracted decline. With the kind of buying that was evident last week, it does not seem that we are ready to start on this journey.

Structurally, we could be in the midst of a shallow wave 4 correction from 1359 which could express itself as a flat or a triangle. We could make up the lack of depth in the pull-back by using up some time around this level before pushing higher. Unless it has already topped, next week the SPX should see a short-term high brought about by a cycle which has had a fairly consistent high-to-high phase for the past 3 years, but Monday should see the bottoming of a minor cycle – unless it inverts!

Whether or not the index makes a new marginal high should not alter the probability of a high level consolidation which has not yet run its course. There was a potential P&F projection to 1375 which was reached early on Friday, followed by a narrow consolidation for most of the day with a small dip into the close. Should the index decide to go a little higher next week, it could reach 1383.

The overall market ended the week with a mixed picture. The VIX retraced to the low of its base, ostensibly indicating that the market is not ready to have a serious correction, but UUP may be starting an uptrend. Also, XLF was strong, but SMH, RUT and DJIA were all lagging.

We’ll see how all this plays out next week.

Chart analysis

As we can see on this Daily Chart, the SPX was progressing upward in the pale blue channel until it was broken on the downside by last week’s sell-off. This had been expected for some time since there had been prolonged deceleration in prices as well as notable divergence in the indicator. This action represents a price transition from the steep and narrow channel to a more sustainable, wider (black) channel which should contain prices for a while longer. The validity of that new channel is evident! Look how prices were hugging the top line until bottoming short-term cycles finally caused them to break away from it. The 1340 level where prices came to rest happened to coincide with the channel median, making support that much stronger. (Note that this is only an interim channel. There are wider channels representing the intermediate and the long-term trends. The will all have to be broken before we get to the end of the bull market.)

On Friday, the SPX rallied to back-test the lower line of the blue channel. Whether it provides enough resistance to stop the rally remains to be seen. Because of the current market strength, the index could continue to trade in the upper half of its new channel. Breaking into the lower half would be the first sign of market weakness.

The Hourly Chart shows more clearly the blue channel break and the back-testing of its lower trend line. Since the downtrend line of the MACD has been broken and the histogram had such a large surge, the SPX may not retrace before the histogram develops some negative divergence, in which case, it would be almost certain that the index would make a new high before pulling back.

In any case, if the high-to-high cycle performs as it has in the past, it should bring about a near-term top, followed by a noteworthy pull-back.

Cycles

It will take a little while to determine if the 22-wk cycle made its low last week, and was responsible for the sharp pull-back and the following rally. If it has bottomed, it’s a safe bet that the SPX will not linger at these levels for very long.

The next cycle to make its presence known should be the 13/14-wk high-to-high cycle, which could already have topped early, on Friday.

There is also a minor cycle low due Monday (unless it inverts) which could cause a small pull-back before the larger cycle makes its high.

Breadth

The NYSE Summation Index (courtesy of StockCharts.com) has pulled back to its 50-DMA where it could find support. More importantly, its RSI has gone from overbought to oversold and may be ready to turn up again which would put some upward pressure on the market.

Sentiment

As a result of last week’s decline, the SentimenTrader (courtesy of same) long-term indicator has become somewhat less negative, giving the market more room on the upside before it becomes susceptible to the next correction.

VIX

By retracing into the lower confines of its base, the VIX has also opened the way for higher market prices.

Since its decline from early October of last year, the index has been confined to a very wide channel which I have divided into three sections of approximately equal proportions. The internal trend line which marks the lower section has twice contained attempts at breaking out. Next time, it may be more successful. The MACD has continued to rise in spite of the set-backs, and the moving averages are beginning to flatten out, which means that another try cannot be too far off.

However, any attempt at moving out of the larger channel is most likely weeks if not months away. That should give us some idea about how long it will be before the bull market is ready to top out! The bears will have some minor opportunities along the way, as the market corrects, but they should not count on a major reversal anytime soon.

BONDS

TLT (the ETF for the U.S. long-term bond) is also telling us that we should not expect a deep correction at this time. Although it is making a wedge pattern which is pointing down – a bullish formation – it does not seem in a big hurry to get out of it.

The indicators are slowly trying to turn up, with the histogram almost ready to break out of the downtrend line, but the MACD is still negative.

If TLT does turn up, it will probably be for a limited move. The wedge is part of a channel which will have to be exited before the index can make more serious headway. On the other hand, prices are currently supported by the mid-channel line of the long-term uptrend. If they break below, it would be a sign that TLT is going into a deeper corrective mode, which would change the whole picture from one of mild consolidation to one of a more extended correction.

Since TLT reached a long-term projection when it traded at 125, it is possible that, instead of making a bullish consolidation pattern, it is actually undergoing an extensive distribution phase which will eventually result in a challenge of its long-term uptrend. That would make sense since the QE phases that were supportive of the bonds are apparently over.

UUP (Dollar ETF) Daily Chart

UUP has been in an uptrend ever since it broke out of its base formation. It has dropped to the bottom channel line twice and found support both times. In January, it tried to break out of a long-term downtrend channel, but could not follow through and fell back. Now it is trying again, but it does not seem to have much mojo and may be contained by the former near-term top. There is also a minor cycle bottoming in a few days which should pull it back down temporarily. It has the potential for moving much higher but, at this rate, it will take it months to reach its objective of 25.

GLD (ETF for gold)

After reaching its 185 projection, GLD broke below a long-trend (log scale) trend line, back-tested it twice, and was pushed back both times. The intermediate correction has created a downward channel which was tested on the second attempt at getting back above the long-term trend line.

Since then, GLD has started a small downtrend which has a projection to about 160, after which it may try, once again to resume its long-term advance. There is some severe overhead resistance that will have to be overcome before it can do that, and it may first require more basing action.

OIL – USO (United States Oil Fund ETF)

USO met with resistance where expected and it has started a near-term consolidation. It has a short-term projection to 44 which it may attempt to reach after it finishes building a small base between 39 and 42.

As long as it remains above its lower trend line, that projection is achievable. USO could, at the same time, also fill a gap created when it suddenly reversed after reaching its 46 target.

Summary

In spite of the strength being displayed by the rebound from the 1340 level last week, the SPX looks as if it may have started a consolidation pattern which is incomplete. While it could make a marginal new high, it is more likely to pull back into a sideways correction than to extend its advance right away. Still, that show of strength is a sign that it may not be ready for a significant correction until it has seen higher prices.

The overall market is mixed. Several indices are lagging, but the financials are strong, while the VIX has fallen back to a level near the low of its downtrend.

Andre

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The above comments about the financial markets are based purely on what I consider to be sound technical analysis principles. They represent my own opinion and are not meant to be construed as trading or investment advice, but are offered as an analytical point of view which might be of interest to those who follow stock market cycles and technical analysis.