Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Cycle peak for S&P 500? Time to look at the Bradley model's cycles again

There are many enthusiasts of the Bradley model, sometimes called the Bradley siderograph, which produces cycle forecasts for equities markets including the S&P 500 index. A depiction of that forecast for this year (made by Manfred Zimmel) is below, so you can see it points to tomorrow, June 3 being an intermediate swing high date. As Manfred Zimmel noted, it's really to be used for the timing more than the levels - but it's sure interesting that equities have moved up in this time frame. I learned to have greater respect for the Bradley model when I did the research for this post, "B" on Cycles: Part III, information on the Bradley siderograph model used in market cycles analysis (at this site, 5/16/09), as part of a broad review of cycles methods. Please read that, and it includes links to Manfred Zimmel's site (also printed on his chart below), for more information.

Yes, it's true that the March lows do not appear on this chart, and I sure cannot speak to that. I also would not use the Bradley model as the sole basis to believe that the market tops out in mid-July, or drops into November. It can be a useful reference however. So let's take note of it, in context with the other information and data points we can collect from the markets and other good market analysts.

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