Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Sham "Wow" in the banking and financial sectors? Still struggling with resistance levels

Has this been a sham "Wow" for the banks as they are issuing new equity? We pointed out yesterday that the banks were not participating in that big move up, and even the financials were not at par for that. Today they both doing poorly, with the banking index (BKX) down over two percent. My daily and weekly charts of BKX are below, with markings showing it's testing trendline support today, and the weekly showing the index still on the ropes after hitting both trendline and Fibonacci level resistance (also in the area of traditional chart resistance based on prior swing highs and lows). XLF is down 1.9% (chart at right) and still under 200-day moving average resistance.

We've pointed out numerous times over the past weeks that the banking index hasn't proven itself a bullish area for long investments. If the financial sector also continues to have trouble with resistance levels, this only adds to the mix of reasons to be cautious. Sure, this is a "new month, new money" time period, but that effect only lasts for a few days. Then there's the end of quarter looming at June 30. Is that enough to keep things afloat until then?

Some of the substantial components of the financial sector are testing resistance, with GS being the main one that I've tracked with charting. It got almost on its 50% retracement to the all-time highs, and is in a Fibonacci level cluster that can be a potential reversal zone, so it bears watching. And of course charting with the XLF is a good way to track the financial sector. If the banks and financials cannot snap out of this malaise, they remain part of the cautionary picture I'm seeing in the equities markets.


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