Thursday, June 11, 2009

Inclined to see channels and wedges in equities indices? It isn't your imagination

Since I noticed a number of narrow price channels and similar formations appearing in various indices, including small wedges that might (stress: might) be diagonal triangles, plus a few small standard triangles that have led to corresponding moves up, I decided to pull and mark these on a number of charts. Here's the result, below. So if you also have been inclined to see these, it isn't your imagination. Some of these are "inclining" more than others, but in each case the big question is whether these are ending formations signaling the type of trend reversal that we and many others have been watching for. Without dissecting the internal subwaves on hourly charts, or even cross-referencing to other technical indicators, one easy way to see if trend reversal sets in will be whether and when these index prices break below the lower trendlines I've marked on these charts.

As an aside, I do like the relative strength appearing in the biotech index ($BTK, shown as a standard full-size daily chart below). So I am staying in, but have decided to move my stop to yesterday's low just to give me some more peace of mind about staying in at this point. And then there's TLT ... a lot of volume yesterday and today. Today can be interpreted as a bullish engulfing candlestick. So just maybe, finally, it's time for TLT? Once again, most investors and swing traders should allow it a bit of room to confirm a trend reversal pattern before just moving in. Those interesting in trying it a bit early can wait and see if it moves - and especially looks set to close - tomorrow above today's high. If so, tomorrow could be used as an entry day, with a stop at today's lows (and then moved to tomorrow's lows).

Something I don't like the looks of - RTH, which looks bearish to me; see its standard daily chart at bottom. Not in a channel or wedge, but just looks like it is breaking down. I may initiate a short in that sector, and the easy way to set the stop for that is at yesterday's high ($81.94 in RTH).

**UPDATE 6:38 pm - Check out Tony Caldaro's update this evening at his Elliott Wave Lives On site (link is in the "other sites of interest" at the right side of the page, plus his site feed is underneat that list. Andre's subscribers also have some interesting updates (as always) too.
And yes, SPX did reach the 953 number I was interested in. There does remain another at 963, so we'll see whether or not it wants that one too, or does it decide to break trendline support instead.

(click on any chart to see it larger)




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