Sunday, June 14, 2009

Reports of a Dow Theory non-confirmation are wrong - actually it's even more bearish than that

Some information for my readers to clarify a point about Dow Theory: I've seen an article this evening claiming that there is a Dow Theory (bearish) non-confirmation because the Dow Industrials have gone positive for the year, while the Dow Transports have not. I'd like to tell my readers that I've learned enough about Dow Theory from the expert, Tim Wood, to assure you that it's even more bearish than that - neither of these indices has risen above their most recent secondary closing highs. Those levels are 9034.69 for the Dow Industrials, and 3717.26 for the Dow Transports, and neither has been exceeded on this rally. So it does not even rise to the level of a non-confirmation.

Below are charts of the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transports using line charts rather than candlesticks. This will make it easier for you to see the important levels that are counted using daily closes in Dow Theory. (But the point is actually the same with candlesticks since the intraday highs haven't been exceeded either.)

Of course, if either index does rise above its important prior swing high level, then we can talk about confirmations whether bearish or bullish. The more objective way to put it would be that one index may exceed its level, and then it would not be confirmed (and therefore remain bearish) unless and until the other confirmed which would then cause the picture to be deemed bullish. But for now, I want to make sure my readers are not misled - neither index has exceeded the important level for Dow Theory purposes.

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