Friday, August 7, 2009

Getting ready for weekend reviews of the markets? Here are some places to start

Here are some ideas for where to start in reviewing the markets this weekend:

Uh oh - the magazine cover of www.newsweek.com is being cited as a contrary indicator, including by EWI's latest Financial Forecast. If you subscribe over there (though I don't keep them in my lists, with reason), you know they're serious about it at these price levels.

Phoevos correctly commented to be wary of Carl Swenlin's analysis. True, Carl is sometimes late to the party, and sometimes stubborn; but it's nice to drop in and see what he's seeing, if only to be aware or consider it. Of course it's contra to EWI's view! But, so, anyway: Carl Swenlin's Very Bullish Indicator at DecisionPoint.com. I don't know whether or not I agree with his forecast but his technical work should be understood at minimum.

I posted the McClellan charts at my Unbiased Trading - No Bull, No Bear, No Bias (tm) [or "UBTNB3"] blogspot. I get a different picture from them, than Carl Swenlin gets with his other indicators ...

Brett Steenbarger has two very interesting posts today at his TraderFeed blogspot - one on finding one's "best trading," the other on shifting intermarket themes. I hope he follows up on his shifting themes too, because this will be important for market action going forward.

Bespoke Investment Group has a couple of interesting posts today, I'm mainly thinking of the one about credit default swaps, but there is another about the return of the "triple play." Depending on your style you may find it interesting.

There's a good lineup of others in the "other sites of interest" at the right side of the page, so you can certainly browse around there for some interesting analysis and discussions too.

Check out the Option Pain CBOE (Max-Pain) Calculator from OptionPain.com - but remember, "max pain" does not work as well in strongly trending markets. Also, the exact number tends to be more reliable if it sits at the bottom of a "V" rather than a "U" curve - you can even see examples of different shapes in the "max pain" graphs they display this afternoon for SPY, QQQQ and GLD (below). For the SPY to get back to $97 by this month's opex will require a change of trend, won't it?! (Not that I don't think it could happen - I do consider it possible.) But notice the shape of the SPY's max pain curve implies that it could slosh around more. Its "wall" along the bullish side really kicks in above 110/120.



UPDATE:
Trader Brian has contributed this chart of the 13-week exponential moving average (EMA) cross above the 34-week EMA in the SPX. It's a valid point, and I know there are very good analysts also pointing to this, which has been a good indicator previously to confirm a bullish or bearish trend. I would like to remind readers that it doesn't mean price isn't overbought and due for some pullback or consolidation. And, I know I also posted a chart sometime this weekend, borrowed from Tony Caldaro's collection, showing the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) running up into its 89-week EMA - so that's one of the cautionary signs. At any rate - here's Brian's chart of that 13/34 week EMA cross:

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