Sunday, December 13, 2009

ChartsEdge Trader Confidence Index (TCI); and some comments I'm adding

UPDATE, 12/14 at 6:31 a.m.: The ChartsEdge TCI chart has updated as you can see below. It now shows a yellow low bar 12/13, suggesting that a HIGH will be put in with a couple of trading days after 12/13. Maybe that means a relative high this morning? If so - Convenient, since the ChartsEdge weekly showed a low on Tuesday for SPX and Wednesday for NDX. Note also, Mike added some additional comment wording onto the graph (about 12/9).

You can also look specifically at the Monday portion of their weekly chart, to see the forecast for a rise for a short while after the open, then a reversal to move down and likely under the level of the open which lasts most of the day. So the intraday movement daytraders should look for is an initial move up, then an intraday reversal that leads down most of the day. Daytraders won't hold positions overnight; but swing traders will want to hold off until at least Tuesday (or Wednesday) before looking for a buy/swing long.

ChartsEdge has been showing their TCI graph from time to time recently at their http://www.chartsedge.com/wp/ site (thanks Mike and ChartsEdge!). The point seems to be to look for when it puts in a daily low (which he marks in yellow), and then look for the resulting swing high or low (as the case may be) to occur in a couple of days. It sure looks like the move up there, implies we probably haven't put in a relative low for this time period yet. So it seems we're still looking for a swing low, according to how the graph looks now. If you also look at the ChartsEdge weekly, we might look for such a low to occur Tuesday or Wednesday. Considering our levels, maybe the SPX needs more consolidation before it resumes an effort to and over 1107. Or maybe it's actually trying to trace a diagonal as part of combining its overall deceleration with the effort to/above 1122. Of course, it will make some difference how the futures run into the open on Monday. Meantime, while it's unlikely we'll see a break under 1182, we might still keep in mind that it's a very important level (just in case).

So - here's that TCI graph from ChartsEdge:
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ChartsEdge TCI Chart

Posted: December 13th, 2009 | Author: Mike Korell |
Filed under:One-Day Market Map | No Comments »


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