Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Oil made break to the downside on volume, so we'll see if $70 gives support

In another sign of the dollar's bounce having some impact, oil broke to the downside. And the USO chart below (oil ETF) indicates it was on volume. Now, there's the 200-day moving average below, which might give support. But my monthly $WTIC chart also shows a rising trendline that would be violated if oil goes much lower. So I'm inclined to look for a bounce from here. Just as I'm inclined to view oil more bearishly if it violates that trendline. That selling volume does suggest it could be a problem.

Notice on the daily USO, that combination of SlowStoch approximately 34,1 being low, with the OBV under its 30-day MA. That's a sign to respect the downswing momentum, normally. Another reason not to be complacent about the $70 area in $WTIC.

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