Overview - SPX, bonds, dollar & VIX

Either VIX is doing some kind of a triangle ... or it's a pretty good imitation - either way, following it out of the consolidation seems like a good idea:


The U.S. long bond hasn't completed a trend reversal ... yet ... although looking peaked (so to speak):


U.S. Dollar, rather similar to VIX:


And the SPX - once again, for the intraday action, the Chartsedge BP did a great job pointing the way for the market's intraday movements. As for the swing trade perspective - whatever else we might say about Elliott Wave and cycles, it needs to show whether or not it is ready to break above the 50 dsma (after being away from it so long, after the "bow tie" formed in the moving averages back in August/September):

If you check Tony Caldaro's site (listed in the "other sites of interest" to the right), you'll see that he marks support for the SPX remaining at 848 and then 789, with resistance at 912 and then 935. According to his Elliott Wave view, "the market appears to be preparing to rally to complete the first abc from the SPX 741 low. The fibonacci upside targets remain at SPX 973 (c=a) and 1068 (c=1.62a). There is a SPX pivot at 961, and once the SPX can break through 920 that would be the next objective." (Tony's 60-min bars SPX chart with his EW marked, is below). I find this especially interesting, as the 1060-1068 area is significant as a major trendline break and potential kiss-back area to broken support, as well.

This is still a "conflict" with the Chartsedge cycle chart indications for this time frame, as well as with the Bradley model (although the mid-December Bradley could be a cycle high rather than the expected cycle low) - so I'm still treading carefully. It's a reason why I also mention the 50 dsma, which is a conventional but broadly-viewed barometer.

Anyway, here's Tony's chart: