Looks like currencies, gold, and the dollar are signaling a move confirming both the move up in oil as well as, potentially, a positive sign for equities assuming that dollar weakness (with VIX weakness) signals more risk appetite for stocks and less concern over deflation. Maybe the deflation concerns reached a bit of an extreme recently.
The euro looks testing up toward the 135-136 area:
What gives me pause however, is that judging by the UUP etf, the dollar may have tested down by its 200 dsma earlier today. Of course that's a decisive break of what looked like a triangle (hence a tri trap). There's a distinct possibility, however, that this move represents a jab toward that significant moving average, likely to be followed by a reaction upward, before a real move down later on:
But gold, represented by the GLD etf, looks like it wants to test up to its own 200 dsma:
Looking at bonds intraday with the TLT etf, those look like they are hanging on rather well and not rolling over yet:
The euro looks testing up toward the 135-136 area:
What gives me pause however, is that judging by the UUP etf, the dollar may have tested down by its 200 dsma earlier today. Of course that's a decisive break of what looked like a triangle (hence a tri trap). There's a distinct possibility, however, that this move represents a jab toward that significant moving average, likely to be followed by a reaction upward, before a real move down later on:
But gold, represented by the GLD etf, looks like it wants to test up to its own 200 dsma:
All in all, a mixed picture at best in terms of risk appetite. Clearly there's some movement either toward risk appetite, with weakened VIX and oil and gold up. But bonds hanging on, and the dollar giving indications that the next move may yet be to the immediate upside, indicate that the "all clear" signal isn't complete yet. Okay ... maybe people are either waiting for the Fed on next Tuesday (or just waiting to get through the mid-December time window!).
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