Thursday, January 22, 2009

The S&P 500 and equities markets weak with VIX ready to break out soon

Despite my feeling positive about the banking sector, I remain cautious on the general equities markets and feel that, even if we do get a movement upward (according to the hypothetical lines marked on the daily bars SPX chart I posted earlier today), the broad equities markets remain subject to plumbing lower levels over the coming weeks.

The VIX has gotten itself tightly wedged into the "corner" on my VIX chart. From this position I'm expecting it to break out soon. The big question being of course, will VIX break to the upside, or downward? The StochRSI indicator shows VIX has pulled back from overbought, and the other indicators (standard RSI and MACD, and slow stochastics on a special setting, suggest that VIX remains capable of pushing upward again. At this point my basic thought is to trade away from today's levels, whether VIX goes above or below today's range (and it could even postpone a move with an inside day tomorrow):

The SPX:VXO (equities index to volatility index) ratio looks strikingly like we had a leading wave down with a pullback up currently:


And my monthly chart of the S&P500 is still looking like the risk is to the downside:


**Update: I just posted a chart update of the dollar ($USD) at my UBTNB3 site, and it shows that the dollar can pullback somewhat more and still be consistent with moving up higher. That coupled with the situation of equities as I read them, indicates to me that the VIX could even make a move under yesterday's low of day (LOD) and still retain its options to get higher, such as to the 66+ level I've identified on my VIX chart.

No comments:

Post a Comment