ChartsEdge forecast for week of 3/6 in S&P 500 and the Nasdaq markets

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Folks, I am going to add my personal comments here. My comments are NOT speaking for ChartsEdge. These are my own (Ariel) comments:

My prior comments posted yesterday and today about the markets improving, should be taken as simply that - just comments pointing out positive divergence. For now, the markets are not safe for position investors to buy long the market. Traders need to remain alert that even if we do get a nice tradable rally, it can be simply a bear market rally and NOT necessarily rally up into the April time frame.

All my prior posts of last evening and today, that talked about the bullish divergence that is showing in the markets and the prospects for a market rally, were done prior to receiving the ChartsEdge forecasts. Now, I do not want to give away those forecasts (you need the subscription to see the longer term). Also, the forecasts going out for weeks and a few months, ARE subject to change from time to time. So regardless of what they show this weekend, they can shift.

What the chart DOES show for the week ahead is consistent with what I saw in the markets currently. And that is the markets being oversold and due for some kind of a rally. Whether the market rolls over (such as to an Elliott Wave 3 to lower levels), we will have to see. I believe there is potential both ways - that a rally beginning this week, or beginning in a couple of weeks, can have a longer life. Or not.

That is why traders need to remain alert. And position investors should definitely not try to buy the markets long at this time - it would be a very, very bad idea for position investors to buy the markets without confirmation. There are various ways to get a market buy confirmation - but they all involve some combination of a strong move up on good volumes, followed by a moderate partial pullback, and a followthrough movement again on good volumes. We have certainly NOT seen that yet. We will post here if and when that happens. Until then, either stay in cash, or trade using the trading vehicles you are comfortable with - that's the best advice I can give. (Actually I must avoid giving investment advice here, of course. So, this is market commentary - and the basic commentary is, yes there is hope - but the trend remains down until confirmed otherwise!)

From the Elliott Wave perspective, the move down from the February consolidation highs looks to me like a 5-wave movement, and as I showed yesterday, would look best ending early this next week. It is nice I'll admit, to see the ChartsEdge forecast look similar to this idea. The big question then becomes, so what? Did the 5-wave end "the low"? One of the alternatives is that it only ended wave 1 of a move down, or another alternative is that it ended wave 3 of a move down. That's the way Elliott Wave is - there are usually several alternatives, and how they continue to play out gives "the answer" on which was right.

Downside targets that I'm aware of include my 640, and the lower Fib retrace levels (approximately 554 aned 498). Teaparty had 588 (not sure how he calculated that). Tony Caldaro has pivot and Fibonacci numbers he identifies in his daily and weekly updates, and Andre Gratian also has his levels and numbers he identifies in his daily and weekly comments.

Again - all reasons for traders to remain on our toes!