An Elliott Wave case that the S&P 500 will rally from here, or after one more drop to slightly lower levels

How you view this information depends in part on what your trading vehicles are - options, ETF's, etc. What I marked here is an Elliott Wave count that would be my preferred count. It might be possible that the count completed this afternoon, as I've commented on the chart - and my uncertainty about the EXACT Fibonacci target in the big picture monthly chart, together with my concern for those who might be using options for which the premium can start to change drastically with zigzagging diagonal wave action, led me to post my comments about a possible rally. I still think it is possible the count could be called "complete" for whatever you want to call this - a C-wave, a fifth wave, a first of a fifth, whatever - but whenever you think you have 5 waves in any direction, it is time to pull in the profits (TMAR), normally!

My preferred count which I marked on this chart, shows that I think there can be one more reflext up, and a sharp move down (maybe that's Merriman's sharp move down on March 10 he mentioned ... or maybe it moves out in time to Weird Wally Wednesday or Thursday turnover next week - all that, we really can verify by using Fibonacci ratio analysis, since each leg of an ending diagonal normally is .786 (sometimes .618) of the preceding leg. Very tradable (and lucrative) for nimble daytraders when trading the pattern on good probability, but swing traders are most likely best off by standing aside and being prepared to trade away from it when it's ready.

And the alternative that I discussed, but did NOT put arrows onto the chart depicting, would be that we started the rally today and the market rallies on up without making another new low.

Disclaimer: I put the Elliott Wave label onto this post, which automatically carries a reference to Tony Caldaro. I do NOT know if Tony would see the Elliott Wave count (alternatives) this way.

There are other ways to look at all this, which we can get into more this weekend. Have a great evening!