S&P 500 and other markets on track so far for the week

The S&P500 moved today consistent with the discussions and forecasts posted here over the weekend and this morning. Below is an hourly SPX chart on which I've marked simply trendlines that may provide context for what we are expecting the rest of this week. I posted a charts roundup along with VIX and TRIN, at my UBTNB3 blogspot too - interestingly, the US dollar poked a bit higher this morning, so this is part of the picture as well. I've also posted a longer-term chart of $USD below. One scenario is that equities poke somewhat lower tomorrow, as the dollar pokes up. Then equities attempt a rally the rest of this week, along with a dollar pullback (and a move higher in gold). If this is the case, it will be interesting to see whether it would have the dollar actually get to 91 and then pull back while remaining above the horizontal red lines I marked. That would leave the possibility that next week, equities move lower while the dollar tries to raise higher against moving average and chart resistance (potential triple top in the daily chart, and Fibonacci and moving average resistance in the weekly and monthly charts).

If that scenario plays out without the dollar having first spiked to 91, then perhaps the dollar sees 91 after a pullback, on the subsequent move higher. I've resisted placing Elliott Wave counts onto the dollar chart, because it looks to me like it can be counted 5 up and then either a pullback before going onto to another big wave up, or it rolls over (as so many gold bugs are thinking) to seek out new downside targets. I'm tilting to the idea that the dollar does a pullback and then goes higher - so, we'll see.

There are key levels in other markets too, that can be tested with this scenario of a rally attempt later this week, as discussed here Friday and over the weekend. One of those of course is the yen (included in my charts roundup at UBTNB3). As for the Dow Transports and the banking index, it is pretty evident IMO that those charts are "looking like" they want some level of a rally, even if only to work off oversold conditions ... the transports, while lower today, have been pushing along their lower Bollinger Band and could mount a test of the BB midline around their 20-day moving average. And the banking index was actually up today, even moving slightly above (but not closing above) yesterday's high.