Sunday, March 8, 2009

Views into the probable Elliott Wave count in the S&P 500

Readers here already have been exposed to the Elliott Wave work of Tony Caldaro with his Objective Elliott Wave count, discussesd in his weekly update and he continually reviews it at his site (link in "other sites of interest" at right side of page here). And my own effort, which has been reflected in my S&P 500 weekly chart for some weeks now. Today we get a look at Elliott Wave work by a chartist with the internet name "cleo", from Spain. cleo's chart is the first one shown below.

I have a few thoughts that I also annotated onto cleo's chart, and that effort is the second chart shown below. Not to take anything away from cleo's work at all! Bottom line, I generally agree we should be thinking in terms of the move down from February being the 3rd wave of a 5-wave sequence down. I just do think there is a possibility (albeit faint) that this same move down could be a completion wave in and of itself, and when done could finish the current big move down. Don't worry, I'm not going to stake my grub on this idea, so to speak. But it is just one of the reasons why I intended to swing trade with the waves as they appear to be unfolding, with the additional confirmation from the ChartsEdge cycle forecast for this week indicating some type of corrective rally up (at least before weakness Friday afternoon).... Just staying on my toes!

Oh by the way - I've got a trading buddy looking for S&P 500 at 625 ... that would be a nice poke under the 640 I've got in mind, maybe would touch down to trendlines too. At any rate - here are those charts, the one from cleo, and the same one with a couple of my thoughts on it:



If you notice some of cleo's comments, there's an idea that we shouldn't assume the whole movement down is an A-wave, but could possibly be a C-wave. This is one of my thoughts also, the possibility that a large flat correction is playing out in the S&P 500. This doesn't have to be the exact same count for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It's one of the possibilities for the big picture that I've been kicking around for a while and have mentioned a few times. But there's no need to pull that idea out and analyze it in detail currently, because there will be plenty of time to look at it whenever the markets pull out of the current tailspin!

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