For those interested in Elliott Wave - One set of views about the markets - Bob Prechter interviewed on Bloomberg TV: mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/voiYckQWJmpw.asf. I do not necessarily agree with his organization's Elliott Wave counts, but - contrary to what they assert - it isn't simple. That's why I prefer to align my default "Elliott Wave" label here, with Tony Caldaro's Objective Elliott Wave. Still, for pure theoretical ideas, Bob does a good job. He's talking about the markets having a lot more downside work to do in the future, but he's thinking that the summer months just ahead should see more upside to the bear-market rally. (Okay if you say so, Bob; I'll just adopt a wait-and-see attitude on that.)
Those interested in the dollar - his presentation includes a chart of the dollar in which they've obviously adjusted their EW count of it. Looks a lot more plausible than the one I saw from that organization a month ago. Bob seems to think the dollar can go lower - based on that chart showing the dollar doing the C wave of a wave 2, that can fit with what I posted earlier, about the Fibonacci retracements that can go down to .618 retrace to the 70.70 low. Bob may be right about that; but, I'm going to adopt a wait-and-see attitude on that too (especially with the euro at that .786 retrace level of its own right now).
Tim Wood as part of the lineup in FinancialSense's Saturday, May 30 audio presentation. And/or, read Tim's article at that site today, Warning! Counter-Trend Moves Spark False Hopes (5/29/09). I know there are others who post at that site - Tim's the one I can confidently recommend.
Another set of views about markets, including perhaps different ideas about the market's likely path over the coming months and years - Martin Armstrong has apparently done another newsletter, "Understanding the Real Economy" dated May 15, 2009. Here is where I found it via a Google search, at http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/martin-armstrong-understanding-real.html (post there dated 5/15/09). About 20 pages chock full of everything you wanted to know about his Economic Confidence Model, wave timing, and ideas about how to project the timing of a low for this equities bear market.
Now, if you read this one, remember that we don't trade "news" but we like to stay informed! (But if you read Armstrong's newsletter, think about that "waterfall" idea, and look at a yearly chart of the banking index ($BKX), you might start really wondering about the banks, as I've been doing that - works well with monthly/yearly charts.) - NY Times article - OFF THE CHARTS: TROUBLED BANK LOANS HIT A RECORD HIGH, By FLOYD NORRIS, Published: May 29, 2009 http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/30/business/economy/30charts.html?ref=business ("OVERALL loan quality at American banks is the worst in at least a quarter century, and the quality of loans is deteriorating at the fastest pace ever, according to statistics released this week by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.").
Speaking of the banking sector, check out some daily/weekly chart views and technical analysis of the banks, including discussions of the regional banks looking weaker than the BKX, in this post - Financials: Charts Say "Decision Time" today at Financial Ninja.
And further on the financials, there's another thought-provoking article, Guest Post: Goldman Sachs Principal Transactions Update: Collapse In Agency Program Trading Volume by Tyler Durden at nakedcapitalism today. Including some peeks behind the curtain of what's happening with trading in the equities markets these days. (Yes, that spike in the last 5-10 minutes of the day today - maybe it was a precursor to a breakout from a triangle or trading range, or maybe it was like something that happened in February, right before the slide down into the March lows ... this is why all traders should be from Missouri, the "show-me" state - don't guess, let price make the move which we won't see until next week at the earliest!)
Further insight into today's late-afternoon action in Late Day Rallies, the SPX and the VIX
(5/29/09) by Bill Luby - and if you scroll his site, numerous other interesting posts, at Bill's VixandMore.blogspot.com.
And, I cannot resist the Gold Contract COT (commitments of traders) chart data for the week (among those at COT (Commitments of Traders)) - didn't someone tell those commercial traders they should be buying gold coins from those TV advertisers?! LOL Well, gold certainly moved but still not above $1008 let along $1034 so will see ... Maybe Allan at his AllAllan.blogspot.com (also using Elliott Wave methods) is seeing something similar in precious metals, with his articles today - Silver - update - and yesterday, A look at Silver. If the idea is to give credence to resistance unless and until going higher is screamingly obvious, that might be the idea these commercial traders have - chart below:
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