Monday, June 8, 2009

Big spike in 2-year Treasury yield raises questions of dollar support, yield curve and equities enthusiasm

The 2-year Treasury yield spiked in the past couple of days; just today, rising 7.58% and drawing attention. The general thinking is that this supports the dollar, may lead the Fed to raise short-term interest rates, and affect the yield curve. It's beyond my normal scope to comment on economics, but shifts like this are factors traders must monitor. It may encourage something like "short covering" in the dollar. It tends to support the dollar, which in turn is a bearish factor for equities.

The NcClellan Oscillator continued its coiling action, touching down to zero line for NAsdaq and just below it for NYSE.

Just additional factors to remember as we continue into the week. We may have projections for higher levels, but it would take some extraordinary movement in the market internals and technicals to make it more than a slightly higher hand-off level as big players roll over their options positions this week prior to next week's opex.

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