ChartsEdge (U.S. equities) map for 6/24; and Fibonacci levels to watch today

Market Map for Jun 24, 2009

Author: Mike Korell, ChartsEdge Daily Maps
Posted: June 24, 2009


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Thanks once again, Mike and ChartsEdge! Folks - this will be perhaps the third time I've seen these daily maps from ChartsEdge in the context of a Fed day. They've still done a good job for timing intraday turns, even with the twists and turns that tend to occur particularly in the afternoon after the Fed announcement. Last time it even did a good job for indicating relative price levels (something they are not really intended for but is a nice bonus when it happens). Given the look of this map, and the stage the broader markets are in - especially if you understand the Elliott Wave counts we've been discussing - it's possible this depiction is quite close to the price levels we'll see. But just remember to look more at the timing.

Just in case anyone "didn't get the memo," we are working with the context of swing trading short the market, having completed either all or the first big part of the bear-market rally, and having finished a wave 1 down and wave 2 up ... therefore along the way of a wave 3 down that should be a longer wave down that what we already saw from Friday's high to yesterday's low.

In other news - still keeping an eye on currencies, so far within the context of our views that the dollar should get support to move up, and the euro weaken down (although the euro had a very good day yesterday, along with the yen). I've been taking a view that perhaps the yen does have higher levels to achieve, but I'm stopping out if it moves under Friday's low.

Because of the nature of today, I've taken some extra time to construct a Fibonacci chart onto a short-term chart of the SPX, showing you the Fibonacci levels to keep an eye on which can provide targets as well as support/resistance levels intraday. On the theory that we are working with a smaller level second wave after a small-level first wave down from Friday's high, I marked these with special attention to common levels for second waves - often up to .618 or .707 retracement to the origin (i.e. to Friday's high). However, for a smaller-level second wave, the retracement may not be as strong because it's within the context (we are hypothecating) of a wave 3 off the prior week's top, so I marked smaller-level retracement levels such as the 50%. My chart is below. It shows important levels in cash SPX are:
.382 retrace, 902.23
.500 retrace, 906.365
.618 retrace, 910.46
chart resistance, 912
.707 retrace, 913.61
(.786 retrace at 916.22 but if this happens, it's more likely a different wave count is happening)

Obviously, but just to make sure - above Friday's high is a win for bulls, going long
Under yesterday's low is a win for the bears, going short

As always, be careful out there, and happy market navigating!
- Ariel




P.S. from Ariel - I've started a Facebook page for UnbiasedTrading but haven't figured it all out yet and it needs work. A new project for the coming days and weeks!