Monday, June 15, 2009

Equities rally leg most likely finished, so will we see mere pullback or new lows?

A quick check over at Tony Caldaro's Elliott Wave Lives On site (always included in the other sites of interest at the right side of the page here) confirms what I suspected based on today taking out important prior swing lows - either "major a" or "primary B" is most likely completed and therefore labeled as such on his charts already today. (These charts are from his public charts, that Tony allows me to post with attribution to him of course - thanks Tony!) The difference between saying the rally that finished is "major a" (as marked on the Dow chart) or "primary B" (marked on his SPX chart) is this: If it's "primary B," then say goodbye to the rally and start getting ready to revisit and likely break under the March lows. If it's only "major a," then just expect a pullback to "major b" that will be another buying opportunity to profit from "major c" up that will finally complete the real "primary B". Tony explained this in his weekend update, so this is just a recap (especially if you're not adept in his Objective Elliott Wave counting). Also, he's got those new markings in green - and it will be a prudent idea to allow the markets a bit of time and price action to confirm them.

How will we know whether it's the major or primary wave? Well, the main thing is to observe how the down wave plays out, along with the indicators as it expresses. I'm sure that Tony will be addressing that in his updates as it goes along. Maybe we need to give it a few days or a week or so first. Meantime, you'll want to be asking yourself, how do you play it? If you wanted to remain long and think it's only a pullback, you'll be sorely disappointed if it turns out that we're going into "primary C" instead!

What difference does it make this week? Well, I don't want to be sanguine about this, so just a thought ... but it remains possible for the markets after today, to pick up some pieces starting tomorrow and attempt some movement higher, before settling down into opex on Friday. If that's right, it will give time for many participants to adjust during this week.

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