Euro bumped into resistance - may have lower levels to test if the dollar decides to rally

The euro got quite a bump at resistance which I've been tracking and posting here (use the "Euro"label to find prior posts on it). It should remain above $130 to retain a more bullish posture, but if the dollar goes into a serious rally from a possible double bottom then conversely the euro may do the reverse. Recently I had shown a small bearish wedge as the euro was going into its most recent high. A wedge like that typically spells the final wave of a movement, but since it was on the short-term charts I cannot be totally certain that the euro drops to those lower Fibonacci retracements I've marked onto the monthly chart (under the daily chart, below). So I'm leaning skeptical (read: selling) the euro, then we'll observe the wave structure and see what it may do with its 200-day moving average (yes, the 50 dma did cross above the 200 dma but notice the 200 dma has still been declining so it isn't slam-dunk bullish). Losing $130 would signal that the decline is more serious.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, I'm thinking that it can have been tracing out a B-wave triangle that almost broke bullish but didn't (at least not yet). The "e" wave can extend beyond the "c" wave but not beyond the "a" wave. So as long as it remains below the late 2008 high, I do believe it has the potential to drop in a "C" wave down to $111/112. The P&F charts (not shown below) indicate there's support there, and of course a deep retrace to that level might end up being just a second wave that allows the euro to vault to much higher levels in the future.