Sunday, June 21, 2009

Forecasts for equities and gold next week from the cycles analysis by ChartsEdge

Here are the cycle forecasts as depicted for the week ahead by ChartsEdge (always included in the "other sites of interest" at the right side of the page here. Interesting differences between the SPX and NDX charts this time around (and subscribers to the longer-term forecasts especially are seeing what I'm referring to). I've got to ponder whether this is a reminder that we need to consider these more for timing than absolute levels; or whether there's an indication that something else may be happening that's sector-specific (banking and financials perhaps, or maybe energy?). I don't think it should be enough to change any point of view but something to consider when looking for clues in analyses we're already doing.

Something we can point out is, that if the equities charts play out as depicted this week, a rise to these levels would be enough to negate the immediately bearish possibilities (like the wave 1 down, wave 2 up about done, and getting ready for wave 3 down) for the equities markets. It's also interesting to see a rise into June 26, which is on the Bradley model as a turn date (indicated there as a low, which actually often tends to be the case on a monthly basis and thus normally a good time for fund managers to buy in expectation for new money coming in at the beginning of the next month ... but the Bradley dates are supposed to be able to invert and become either lows or highs).

It is tempting to think in terms of window-dressing as we get into the end of June, one of the traditionally more significant window-dressing time periods. For that matter, the Federal Open Market Committee is meeting Tuesday/Wednesday, with a decision on U.S. monetary policy from the FOMC to be announced Wednesday afternoon = Fed Day.

Well without more comments from me, below are those forecasts from ChartsEdge:

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