Tuesday, June 2, 2009

S&P 500 may have met target levels so once again, caution advised in equities

The SPX has met one set of target levels so once again, caution is advised in equities. Taking that consolidation pattern (in the SPX chart, below) as a triangle, that can have been a 4th wave triangle, the measured move out of that triangle would have been met at 938.83. That happened yesterday of course, but the rise yesterday that might count out as an extended fifth wave of the thrust up from the triangle has extended a little higher today to tag the 948/949 level. That's a level that Tony Caldaro described in last night's update (at his Elliott Wave Lives On website, or use the site feed below at right) as the level where Major wave C would equal Major wave A. In that update, he mentioned that he saw it had completed its 3rd wave and he was looking for the movement's internal 4th and 5th waves.

I don't want to speak for Tony as to whether he would see those being completed today. But I do think it is fair to keep a cautious eye out for potential reversals. Especially when the Euro, having moved higher again today, has now tagged that 142.60 Fibonacci level I described recently, and also is very close to touching the Bollinger Band midline on its monthly charts (which I've also shown and described recently). The dollar has similar touched lower today - so we just have to keep an eye out to see whether these currencies continue past support/resistance, or reverse. (I posted charts of FXE and UUP a few minutes ago at my UBTNB3 site.)

As for the VIX, you can see in the chart I inserted upper right that it poked under yesterday's low, fitting since equities poked a bit higher today. Even if there is a reversal, we would not get confirmation on the daily bars until tomorrow. But those looking intraday can keep an eye on the 15-minute and hourly bars as well as the indicators to see whether any signals show up intraday.

*Update note 11:26 am - I'm aware that the idea of "counting" the move up from what looks like a triangle consolidation, may be subjective to the point that the SPX may still need another small 4th and 5th wave to complete. And, that Andre Gratian has a few other numbers he's looking at and describing to his subscribers; and that Tony Caldaro (with his own OEW methods) has described numbers that even include 961 as a pivot (although I have the impression that those pivots don't always "require" getting spot on, to have an effect).
I do also have a Fibonacci retracement number at 953-ish, but it's on one of my secondary calculations so I do not feel just as strongly about it. (I'll note it if it's met of course.)
I just wanted to be sure and point out that triangle and symmetry levels have been met!

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