Sentiment measures (CPCE, ISE and COT) agree that equities markets are cooling off

Here are several views measuring sentiment for equities indices - the CPCE, the ISEE data, and COT (commitments of traders). First, the CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio (CPCE), on which I've marked a couple of horizontal lines and then some trending lines marking off the "wedging" or coiling pattern it was displaying until recently. Finally it broke above that pattern - something I've been expecting, took longer than I expected but in view of the Elliott Wave count I shouldn't have been surprised. In the past couple of days it moved down again of course, but not to a new low. How bearish or bullish is this? My take is that the wedging pattern went right along with the complacency depicted by the falling VIX, and it won't really register a serious bullish high at least until it moves higher. And because of the wedging pattern, it's more likely to start spending time above its 200 day moving average (dma) again. Notice that the other moving averages had extended well below the 200 dma as the wedging played out, and now are snapping back higher again.

Next are two charts from the ISE (their ISEE charts and data webpage). First is the All-Equities, and next is the All Indices and ETFs; I've set both to display chart data back to the end of last year. The All-Equities moved just under 100 recently, meaning slightly under the level at the March lows, then moved up again to close at 156. So it registered quite a scare although that didn't last long. Maybe it's got room to climb higher as it's certainly done since March, or maybe this is only a test back up to moving averages. The second one, All Indices and ETFs, was spiking very high earlier this year and especially in March, but since then traveling down and plateau'd. If it tends to peak with market lows, then it certainly has room to rise.

At bottom is the COT (commitments of traders) chart for the ES (e-mini/SPX futures), available from COT (Commitments of Traders). Remembering that it shows data for the prior Tuesday (in this case, June 16), you can see that the commercial traders notably increased their net short positions.

Once again, all of this doesn't guarantee that the market goes to new lows rather than dipping in a pullback and then pushing in a second rally leg higher again. But it is consistent with the market cresting a peak of some level.