Thursday, June 4, 2009

Since Goldman Sachs cleared that "High Pole Warning," does it run above $170 now?

Goldman Sachs (GS) managed to get past the "High Pole Warning" on its P&F chart that I pointed out a couple of weeks ago. This morning at least one analyst raised its stock price projection to approximately $175/176, which interestingly is almost exactly the level that the same P&F chart had shown as a bullish price projection for GS. So, is that it? Perhaps - it's just that there's another price level we need to be wary of, and that's the 50% retracement back to its highs. That level is $147.60 which GS just touched intraday (see 15-minute chart at right).

That level is at the heart of a Fibonacci cluster zone, which actually does extend up into the low $170's in Goldman Sachs' stock price. Coming into this level, price has been squeezing into a rising wedge pattern (see daily chart, below). A pattern like that doesn't have to be bearish, but often it is. And volumes along with the indicators have been weakening. Once again, this is an "early warning" to be on the alert for a reversal.

Using Fibonacci levels is helpful but doesn't tell us whether simply tagging it intraday is enough, or might a reversal be looked for after price has risen to hover above it for a day first. I've seen both. Similarly, using P&F charts is definitely an art as far as I'm concerned. Checking again today, that default P&F chart at Stockcharts.com shows $188 as its bullish projection on the daily chart. On the weekly chart it's even more bullish, pointing to $245. But on the monthly chart it's still bearish and points to a bearish projection of $32. So I look to be aware of those, but also use the methods that we can see on these types of charts with this post. Of course, price is the ultimate indicator, as they say. So price will tell us whether GS can remain in bullish mode, or might change trend.


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