The yen's looking bullish again - these charts show it can still surprise many with how far it can rise

The yen is moving well and I've got the impression it may be moving more than the dollar. If you've been reading here since the beginning of the year, you know that I was originally thinking a very bullish point of view on the $XJY chart, but then as the drop moved somewhat beyond a classic Elliott Wave flat C-wave projection and under the 200-day moving average, I re-evaluated the monthly chart and determined that what I thought was a large triangle isn't really because its subwaves don't meet the classic criteria. That doesn't mean that it cannot go up in a large wave such as a fifth wave, but it does mean that we cannot rely on the classic fifth wave thrust from a triangle, including the measured-target for such a fifth wave. So I've been watching the wave pattern for clues whether it would go into a bearish, bigger wave C down (if the high on the daily chart, below, topped a large B wave) ... or would retain the bullish count. Recently as it moved in a pretty clear three-wave (abc) movement up and then dropped again, I issued a warning that it could well be readying for a large drop such as a third wave of a large C. Then it steadied and moved up again, and today/tonight seems to be continuing that. So where does it leave the possible count and target?

I know that Tony Caldaro's Objective Elliott Wave count has higher target levels for it, and in his recent weekend update he referred to the yen as continuing its consolidation. Since it looks like it may be reading to break up - rather than down - from the consolidation, I decided to get back in it again. So therefore, it's also time to review how it looks. I marked on my daily chart (below) some trendlines and comments about the chart position. Note that the DMI-ADX has crossed into positive territory again - if it moves into an uptrend, that will be confirmed by this indicator moving even higher. My monthly chart of $XJY (second chart below) still contains the original markings I placed onto it months ago. You can see that it has remained within the bullish uptrend channel support on that monthly chart.

Also below I've placed Tony Caldaro's daily and weekly charts from his public charts (link at his Elliott Wave Lives On site, see link at the right side of the page - as he allows me to post his charts with attribution to him, thanks again Tony!). Clearly Tony's good Objective Elliott Wave work is shining through once again, as he's got it marked in a manner that is looking for another substantial wave up. I cannot speak for the price target he's got in mind, but I'll point out that the 111.49 pivot I developed is based upon a very long-term Fibonacci retracement, the .786 retrace back to the high years ago on my monthly chart. Getting over 106/107 points up to that 111.49 level again, and moving above that level points the $XJY to vault to new highs. The triangle target would be at 135.88, and there's a Fibonacci target at 138.38 so that area is one objective to keep in mind.

Since these are long-term objectives, it can be a reasonable idea to wait and make sure that the yen moves above 106 on the $XJY chart. My thought is that it's looking positive already, given that it moved above its 200-day moving average and above a recent downtrend line (I marked on the daily chart below), moved back down a bit to "kiss back" to that trendline, and then has moved up again - a bullish movement. With confirmation from the DMI-ADX, which is not even a fast-moving indicator. So I'm moving back in again, and for now have decided to keep a tight stop at Friday's low. Yes, this is a rather tight stop, but I don't want to get entangled with it if it still needs yet more consolidation. If it's moving into another wave up, then I don't see a reason for it to fall under Friday's low. (Another reasonable stop level for many would be at 101.10 on the $XJY chart (the prior swing low of this month), if you prefer to give it more room - I'm just thinking that I don't see a reason for it needing that extra room.)