Thanks again Mike and ChartsEdge! Folks - one possibility that would help signal a top would be an ending diagonal triangle (EDT) pattern. If you want to know more about those, look for a post I made describing those, at my NB3 education blog (inlinks at right). If you see me posting or tweeting about an EDT, you'll know what I mean. I count EDT's as having their 5 waves as 1,2,3,4,5 (not like some who use a,b,c,d,e). This might even happen over today and tomorrow.
Big picture? The drop from this rally giving out can be a steep and deep one. I know and respect the views of some who think a drop will be only a moderate pullback. But it's best to be correctly positioned so that if it keeps going, one won't get wiped out. So if we see a test of this 1041 that's followed by a 5-wave drop (not like the drop Friday that looked like a 3-wave), then short looks right unless stopped out by a higher move. Compared to this approach - I really do see it as (calculated) gambling to stay in looking for 1053 or 1060 ... as I tend to put it, the market can but doesn't "have to"! A classic case of, how you play it really depends on your trading timeframe and style. Some may try to sell top tick, some may wait for trendline break or Elliott Wave pattern confirmation. I can and will continue posting my comments, but it's up to you how you make actual trading decisions. Just know that technicals are showing this market to be on thin ice, and one of these days a daily and/or weekly swing high will be the first crack that makes it give way.
Note to Mike - I'll keep watching UNG - any day it closes above prior day's high with good volume might do it.
So careful everyone, happy market navigating! And here's the map for today from ChartsEdge:
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ChartsEdge - Market Map for Aug31
Posted: August 30th, 2009 Author: Mike Korell
Filed under: One-Day Market Map »
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