Saturday, December 12, 2009

Equities markets feel boring but breadth is still - yawn! - okay

Folks, I've got a confession to make, about something that contributed to my posting and tweeting little this past week. The markets started to feel a little boring! Like there was less and less to add each day! Not 100% true but the markets didn't want to make big breakdowns or breakouts, just meander off the moves of the prior week. There's an old adage, "Never short a dull market.". That alone can be reason not to hang massively short right now. The technical breadth charts below - NYAD, NYMO/NYSI and TRIN - confirm that the breadth internals are not dragging down, even while they're not sending the market shooting up either. Sentiment may be consistent right now - I think Bill Luby is expressing something similar in his post, "Predicting a Downturn Based on the Put to Call Ratio" -- at Seeking Alpha, http://seekingalpha.com/article/177784-predicting-a-downturn-based-on-the-put-to-call-ratio.

It doesn't mean that the market isn't in a topping or cresting process. It's just that - yawn - they don't seem ready to break down either. Unless there's some event that takes over, I'm thinking we'll see steady or maybe even somewhat positive movement in the equity indices over the immediate near-term, this upcoming week (and perhaps into the end of the year). Basically, unless SPX 1084 is taken out, we aren't likely to see any significant downside; and these technicals don't say that such a significant downward move is likely.

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