Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Gold may be in a bubble, but why not join for when it triples again?

Tony Caldaro wrote a very interesting post about gold thus past weekend, "Been hearing this week that Gold is in a bubble (?)" - at http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!D2CB8C5EBA2ADE86!63496.entry. It's an Objective Elliott Wave view that our readers should consider (thanks again, Tony!). Now I might test and question the immediate path for gold from time to time. But the basic premise that gold is in a bull market, makes sense to me. Gold would have to price itself bearish before I'd sell core holdings. So consider carefully what Tony is saying:
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December 13

Been hearing this week that Gold is in a bubble (?)

Was the Nasdaq in a bubble after it increased 15-fold during its 10-year uptrend from 1990-2000?
Was Crude in a bubble after it increased 15-fold during its 10-year bull market from 1998-2008?
Then Gold is beginning to enter an expanding bubble as it has increased 5-fold during its 8-year uptrend from 2001-2009?
Did you notice both the Nasdaq and Crude increased 15-fold over 10 years?
When Gold reaches $3750 in 2011, it too will have increased 15-fold in 10 years. That is now our target! How do we get there? The attached monthly chart displays the four Primary waves since the bull market began in 2001, and the current unfolding Primary wave five.
When we calculate some fibonacci relationships for Primary wave V, in relation to Primary waves I, III, and the total advance of I thru III we uncover two interesting relationships: At $3490 Primary wave V = 4.236 Primary III, and At $3980 Primary wave V = 4.236 Primary I thru III. This is the range for the potential 2011 top.

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