Saturday, December 5, 2009

Perspective on the yen's big drop as pullback in its bullish uptrend

Just a few days after I commented on the yen's breakout - and made the remark that the yen wouldn't fuel a carry trade anytime soon - it dropped smartly! But I still view it as just a pullback move, even though it dropped back under the 111.49 Fibonacvi pivot in the $XJY chart. I view this as likely to remain above the prior swing low, and above the $108/109 area. It looks to me like there's uptrend channel support, and it's well within the uptrend channels on my weekly chart (at bottom below). If it were to fall under that prior swing low, I'd stop out and reevaluate the count. For now I regard it as an opportunity to add more to my long position. I realize this seems at odds with the idea of the dollar strengthening - but the yen can continue to rise as the dollar index ($USD) also strengthens against other currencies like the euro.

I've included Tony Caldaro's yen daily chart inbetween my daily and weekly charts below (thanks again Tony! you can find all his public charts via his Objective Elliott Wave site in the list at right). I'm glad to see his wave count is along the same lines, implying this is merely a pullback. His count is based on his OEW methods, and mine is based primarily on the big-picture Fibonacci, plus my own understanding of (traditional) EW. I'm thinking they get to the same overall place. Meaning that despite Japan's efforts, I still don't expect the yen to be very weak, but rather to make another comeback soon enough and then resume making new all-time highs.

UPDATE: After reading Tony Caldaro's weekend update, it seems I should stress that the $108/109 area should provide support, or else longs should likely stop out in respect of a deeper pullback. There could theoretically be a more bearish big-picture count - I don't really think so, we'll just review if $XJY loses that support.

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