Corrective waves - arggh! They get messy but we still try to figure out if the SPX can push to a new high. Against a backdrop where different cycles experts have somewhat different thoughts about the turning time frame. But by now, I think everyone can agree on the importance of 1130 in the SPX cash index. Also 1126 if need be, but doesn't seem likely it could test that and still eke out a new high on this run. I've been liking tomorrow for the wave crest high, but if it can't manage above 1160 tomorrow or Friday, we may have to think in terms of a greater correction before anything going up again.
I tweeted about an idea of an expanding triangle which could give a new high soon. Not keen on expanding tri's but they happen sometimes. And I see Tony Caldaro is allowing for the possibility of an irregular 4th wave low this morning. You can see the consolidation on the hourly and daily charts below. So far, the SPX daily level remains over Tony's 1133 pivot and the BB midline, and some indicators remain in positive territory.
The VIX has begin to show positive divergence and I was planning to buy some VXX by this week's end. I'll be happier if the VIX can plunge under 17, especially for a full day ... Will see. Meantime, keep your seat belts fastened. It's been a choppy (non-trending) market. Until we get a confirmed breakout (new high please asap?) and (later?) / or breakdown, we can't assume the chop is over.
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