Friday, January 8, 2010

ChartsEdge (US equities) pattern map for Jan. 8

Here's today's intraday Pattern Recognition map from ChartsEdge Daily Maps (both the Pattern Recognition and the BP intraday maps for Monday are at the ChartsEdge subscriber site). Their two types of intraday cycle forecast maps, plus their weekly cycle forecasts (see below, and use "ChartsEdge weekly" label anytime), gain predictive power when they all look similar - follow links on their ChartsEdge site for details, and much of that info is also posted at my NB3 blogspot - links above and at right). I'll add a few comments of my own, below, a bit later this morning. For now, the map:
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Thanks once again, Mike and ChartsEdge!

Folks, remember first that their map kicks in from the open, so we can't assume the indication shown for the early part tells us what will happen with the futures pre-market before the open.

Gold is already down, and the euro (let alone yen!) never showed much signs of life recently. For the yen, I may have to trot out an alternative count I've been working on, in which the yen declines further against the dollar (possibly much further); it could be just a deeper correction as I'm expecting for euro, and now apparently gold. These may be precursors of the turn we're expecting in equities, although the SPX having topped 1140 signals it should get above 1150 and the 1157/1162 area or so (and Tony Caldaro has numbers in that area, as I believe Andre Gratian does too).

Will the SPX have a corrective drop before it gets over 1150? Sure depends on the wave count, which is tricky to bet on right now, but the 1132 (1131-1133) having been tested yesterday suggests that the SPX should now remain over that level. But if you're just in for a short-term swing bought on dips Monday/Tuesday, no one's gonna fault you for doing a TMAR (take money and run) rather than hold over the weekend. You might feel bad if it just pops to the objectives early next week - but then again, the next swing is setting up as a short/selling play, so there you go. Not recommending what anyone should do, just commenting on some ways to see what's shaping up.

Time-wise, we're really not in mid-January yet, so it's not really ripe yet for the top in time. So we'll have to see if the equities markets just keep chopping up for the crest, or kick into a trending curve to peak. There are reasons to think the chop wins out - and it's possible that the answer when known, will clue us what to expect for the rest of 2010. (If it's a true ending diagonal triangle, that's a more bearish sign.)

The divergences seem to be not only in gold and currencies right now, but oil didn't follow through yesterday, and some indices aren't as strong by not making new highs yesterday. We're using the SPX as our gauge.

Well that's about it for now ... happy market navigating all!

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