Equities market analysts study the odds whether this drop is the big one - or comes later after another high in May

One of our favorite weekend features is to round up what other talented analysts are seeing and saying about the markets. There had been general consensus among those we respect that the stock markets would peak out during about mid-January (about the 15th-18th or as late as the 21st - we got about halfway between), somewhere above 1140's (though we didn't manage 1160+). Now what? While some see the markets retesting the March 2009 lows next, others are looking for less of a drop and then another rebound to new highs in May. Possibly as far out as August, but at least in May. Not that I can figure out what the Elliott Wave would be for that - will see in any event!

So - Here are some links to what various analysts are saying this weekend, which I believe my readers will find interesting:

T Theory Foundation: T Theory Calculations, Daily Updates, Charts and Data, 1/30 at http://www.ttheoryfoundation.org/t-theory-calculations.html. Click the link to his site to see his chart going along with his following comments:

Saturday Morning 9:00 AM Jan 30 2010 Comment for Friday Jan 29 Close: T Theory Forecast remains bullish for the longer term based on the long term AD T #13 but the S&P continues breaking down below the mid-channel support noted in the chart (Negative).

The W Bottom ? in the volume oscillator is likely to be false. Note as the S&P is breaking below the black mid-channel bullish market support line, the Arms Ratio for the last 3 days has been 0.75, 0.85, 0.99, all overbought readings that imply the market is not actually getting oversold. This in turn means the AD Line is weakening in line with the volume trend which is not good.

I would conclude the actual low before resumption of the AD T will have to come from the lower green envelope now around S&P 1046. And I wouldn't be surprised if the actual low was a selling climax type due these persistently bearish developments.

Terry

Also - Safe Haven | Technical Market Report, by Mike Burk 1/30 at http://www.safehaven.com/article-15650.htm. Always a good read for technical insight into the stock market.

Market Observation - Tim W. Wood 01.29.2010 - Discussing cycles and Dow Theory, at http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm. Tim seems to agree with the idea of this troughing action making one or two lows, then higher later in the year before the next devastating big move down.

Safe Haven | Global Default Problems? by Marty Chenard, 1/29 at http://www.safehaven.com/article-15636.htm.

Here's one that's new for me - at least it has some interesting chart views to consider. And even got me thinking about 1150 -60 to 1090, then 1097 -60 to 1037 (or something like that). Although another idea would be simply 1150 minus the classic 90 SPX points, to 1060 Hmm, dunno ... Anyway let this article speak for itself: Safe Haven | BANG: Right Down to
Support! by J.D. Rosendahl, 1/30 at http://www.safehaven.com/article-15645.htm.

Monday Morning Outlook: Dow, SPX Facing Major Technical Hurdles After Pullback, 1/30. Todd Salamone sees support 1040, resistance 1100-1110:

Whoops. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped another 1% last week, following on the heels of its 4.1% swoon the previous week. That helped add up to a 3.5% loss for the month of January, the worst performance for the blue-chip index since February 2009. Looking ahead to next week, Todd Salamone, Schaeffer's Senior Vice President of Research, is looking for bullish signs, but he concedes that the technical backdrop has weakened considerably. He notes, for example, that the S&P 500 Index has broken below its 80-day moving average for the first time since the March 2009 bottom. Next, Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White takes a look at the January Barometer -- whether the market's performance in January foretells the rest of the year -- and doesn't much like what he sees. Finally, we wrap up with a look at some key economic and earnings reports slated for release this week.

And here's another comment from "Method" today:

Method said...
Post from 1-9

Based on Fib time relationship, I have 4 turn dates coming up on Jan 17th & 18th. This suggests that the top will be next Friday (1/15) or the following Tuesday (1/19).
It could head down from here or bounce to a new high around Feb 15th. If the close on Jan 29th is higher than next weeks high close - the trend will change around Feb 14th - otherwise the trend change will be mid Jan.
The next trend change date will be May 22nd.
Corrections will come around
Feb 18-26
Mar 12-26
Apr 12-16
and maybe one more around May 13th.
The bottom for the year will be either Sep 7th or Oct 14th.

Jan 30 Fib Turn Date Update

The lower close on Jan 29th confirms the downtrend leg for Jan 19th as a trend change date. I do expect a one day hope rally - maybe Monday.

What to expect next
The turn point at Feb 14th should only produce a one day high on either side of that date and then continue down or sideways. This date may also correspond with a low in oil.
Counter trend rally - this should start moving up around the Feb 19th time frame (SPX 1030?) and end on or between Feb 23 - Feb 25th.

Next Trend Change Date
I was originally looking at May 22nd, but the Jan 19th top setup a potential trend change in March. I'm looking for a low to occur between March 12th to March 17th (SPX 993?) with an alternate date of March 26th if price goes lower after March 17th.
Unless the March turn date sets up another trend change date, it will be 2 months before the next trend change date, so I'm considering that this may be a large triangle or wedge formation.
Since the dates did not lineup exactly, I am little skeptical that this may not be a trend change but rather a counter trend rally that will end March 26th.