Monday, January 25, 2010

Even as long-term bears we can look for a tradable bounce

We and others do have long-term bearish views on the stock market. But equities should be readying for a tradable bounce. Probably the real point of difference is about where - how high - it may lead before the next roll down. A lower high, or a higher high? The situation appears to favor a lower high, IMO; we'll see!

Meantime, one of the long-term bearish views comes from T Theory. Terry Laundry posted a very long-term, big-picture view of his 40-year "cycles", at his T Theory Observations site, http://www.ttheory.com/. This is how he described what it's about - so click his site link to learn more:

Update for Sunday January 24 2010. This week I summarize my current T Theory project on the 40 Year Cycle as it applies to the coming Depression. Open the PDF Chart below and listen to the two audio files that refer to it.

If you haven't already, take a look at his charts and listen to his audio files - pretty interesting long-term forecast views.

But as mentioned, for now there are reasons to look for a tradable bounce either from today's lows, or a low to appear very soon. Readers already saw the sentiment and technical indicators reviewed by others as posted here this weekend, including in Andre Gratian's report and the ChartsEdge posts. The charts below are consistent. Including the TRIN, with all the MA's on this chart (below, at bottom) above the 1.2 level:

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