Call me skeptical - but I'm still entertaining the possibility that crude oil is completing (or has completed) a B wave up. Meaning that the recent decline can already be the first wave down in a C wave down. I know Tony Caldaro changed from that idea to a more bullish count as you can see at bottom below on his daily and weekly charts of $WTIC from his public charts (see his site in lists at right - thanks Tony!). But I'm concerned that the cycles aspects of oil are taking over to pull it down again. On my monthly chart (the second chart below, under my daily $WTIC chart), you can see it's just crawling along on one of my trendlines. Breaking that - i.e., under $70 - should negate the bullish count and send it down.
Crude oil made it right by the Fibonacci and BB/MA resistance I described a few weeks ago, then dropped quite low from that. I'm really thinking now the game is to sell rallies rather than buy dips in $WTIC (or the ETFs like USO). Maybe we'll see a bounce soon - I frankly want to caution that any bounce isn't guaranteed. Definitely, even if you feel more bullish on oil than I do - if you see $WTIC under $70, SELL and sort it out later, is one way I can say it.
I'm not going to call it a head and shoulders pattern, since I'm not certain the neckline would work - the 2009 low was pretty low! But my real point is this: if the rally really is just a B, then C can re-test that 2009 low later this year or early next year. So don't be caught long, if oil proves my concerns are right and starts rolling lower in price.
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