More good analysts weigh in with important equities forecasts for the weeks, months and years ahead: T Theory, cycles, sentiment and indicators

Today I'm going to lead the overview of what other good talented analysts are seeing for equities - especially for this new year's view looking ahead - with Jim Curry who presents a helpful way to see how equities cycles interact to point to a probable high in January and then low in March: "45-Day Target Satisfied - Indexes Short-Term Toppy" -- he shows a very neat way to "see" the interaction of equity market cycles of differing length. This was posted 12/30 at his site, at http://cyclewave.homestead.com/123009.html - here's a partial quote, along with one of his charts:

.... Short-term resistance is at or into the 1135-1143 range for the SPX, and could be an area to look for these cycles to attempt to peak:


Once the 10 and 20-day cycles do top out, then a short correction should be seen, one that would ideally see prices retracing back to or below the 18-day moving average into the first week or so of January. However, as along as the next 20-day bottom holds at or above the 1085 level (which is the last low for this component, as well as for the 45-day cycle), then the probabilities will favor a continued push to higher highs into mid-to-late January of 2010 - then potentially setting up a more important peak with each of the larger 45-day and 90-day cycles.

For the bigger picture, getting a look ahead into the first quarter of 2010, the cyclical patterns with the mid-term cycles are leaning in favor of a mid-January or early-February high, then to be followed by a sharp drop into the next 90-day bottom. This cycle is tentatively scheduled to low-out around mid-March, but does have a plus or minus variance of several weeks in either direction. We'll take a look at the larger cycles at some point again in a future article.

Jim Curry
Market Turns Advisory
website: http://cyclewave.homestead.com/

Jim Curry is the editor and publisher of Market Turns advisory, which specializes in using cyclical analysis and various technical methods to time the markets. To be added to their mailing list click their new link http://ymlp.com/subscribe.php?YMLPID=geewsesgmgj

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Next -

Here's what Terry Laundry added 1/1 at his daily update site, T Theory Foundation: T Theory Calculations, Daily Updates, Charts and Data - http://www.ttheoryfoundation.org/t-theory-calculations.html:

Had questions on correction and next buy point. This is a more complex question than these daily comments address as they currently only focus on the rise to the eventual projected high at the red upside Objective. Don't get involved in this scenario if your looking for a good entry point for the longer term. Follow the Sunday longer term picture. A new Buy point for the longer term can't occur until the short term upside objective currently, 1150 in the chart data is reached. This will become a top, then after a new decline, a new opportunity will present itself some weeks hence.

Be sure to take a look at this big picture, mega T Theory of the bear market sooner or later! Terry Laundry's T Theory Observations, today's update at http://www.ttheory.com/. Here's what Terry says today:

Update for Sunday January 3 2010. Happy New Year. This week and next week I will be spending most of my time updating the year-end data at American Shareholders OnLine. Our Managed accounts gained 40% for the calendar year with very low volatility based on my "Best Bond" strategy. Part of my updating for the new year requires reviewing this key approach to accommodate the current Advance-Decline Ts projection of a major August 2010 equity peak as the logical endpoint of the rally from the March 2009 low. This very long term view will become the basis for a whole new strategy needed to accommodate the next Bear Market.

So this week my single topic is consideration of my Longest Range MegaTs which provides the necessary 10 to 20 year perspective to prepare us for the next bear market. This equity decline should last from the current projected August 2010 major peak to the next 40 year cycle low expected around 2013.

To view these discussion it is best if you first click on the audio file below and get it started, then put it into the background, and finally pop open the PDF chart to follow my chart's audio discussion.

Be sure to visit Terry's site, link shown above, to get to his links for the display chart and his audio files!

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For the time period just ahead - Todd Salamone reminds us that January opex us January 15, and that earnings season won't heat up until after then, in Schaeffer's Monday Morning Outlook: In 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Was the Comeback Kid:

Looking ahead, Todd Salamone, Schaeffer's Senior Vice President of Research, notes that technical speed bumps still exist as sentiment shifts. Next, Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White takes a closer look at the performance of the S&P 500 Index during the first five trading sessions of the new year and its implications for the 12 months ahead. Finally, we wrap up with a look at some key economic and earnings reports slated for release this week.

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Next - A good review of Sprott's recent exposition at BusinessWeek about the
debt woes weighing on our economy: Fund My Mutual Fund: Eric Sprott Calls for New Lows on S&P 500, Wonders if US Debt Scheme is Simply the Biggest Ponzi Ever, by TraderMark on 12/30 at http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/12/eric-sprott-calls-for-new-lows-on-s-500.html. It's an interesting reminder of the fundamentals. On the other hand, the fact that this appears in BusinessWeek, implies that the markets are probably not ready to plunge immediately! But the fundamentals are concerning enough that the markets remain within the big bear market picture - once the rally finally completes, the bear market will resume.