SPX and the possible power of 1130 - again

The oversold bounce apparently waited until FOMC time this afternoon, so we'll see if we now get the pullback up implied by the Elliott Wave views. The projection brass ring de jour goes to Andre Gratian, who targeted 1083 and actually got it - cheers, Andre! But I'd didn't last long at all, so you had to be ready and quick to buy at or near that price. Now, per Tony Caldaro's update, we look for a "wave ii" bounce perhaps to 1116.5 which would be the 50% retrace back toward the 1150 high. Interestingly however, if the SPX is strong enough to muster up a .707 retrace (common for second waves), that would be at 1130. Yes, THAT 1130 - the range level that broke down. Where there's now lots of overhang price resistance.

So we want to be aware of it. But it's very possible the SPX won't manage more than 1116.5. Now - if you want to be bullish and think the stock markets go to new highs instead, fine - just consider doing some TMAR around 1116, and probably some hedging there too. Along with a protective stop at or very close under 1083, so you cash out or switch to short at that point if the bearish bias takes over. Many now think it has. Even those who think we head higher into May, need to consider that the indices may well plumb new depths during February or March first.

Below are daily, weekly and monthly charts of the SPX. There remain some positive elements, but that's no reason to abandon the trading point of view that says to watch 1116 and if higher, 1130, for a probable turn lower perhaps to 1050-ish. Or perhaps toward the 961 area before the next serious bounce ...