SPX retrace target for a bounce moves lower as the wave down drops lower too

Being early feels like being wrong, as the old trading saying goes - and today felt like ChartsEdge was right the first time about their TCI graph showing a high today! But the morning fade indicated by the ChartsEdge map - and common for fading the FOMC-induced movement yesterday - led to new lows as the SPX ultimately hit 1078. It rebounded back over 1083 but settled only slight over 1074. The movements reflected well from the pattern map for daytraders. For swing players - we obviously don't have higher highs breaking above downtrend channels. So the possibilities for a wave "ii" target are dropping too. Perhaps only to about 1114/1128 but we need to confirm a wave "i" low first.

There's potential still building for a better bounce. It depends on your style of trading, how you play it. Classically a swing player needs a reversal pattern plus indicators like positive divergence (there's a bit more now). As for levels - well, I really don't have a good feel if we've gotta go to 1050/1060 now that the SPX probed under 1082, or if it can make today's low the wave "i" low.

I do think it must be getting more clear that the drop will be more significant than some initially expected. But at the same time, I don't think there's anything that definitively rules out some of the scenarios that call for higher levels later in the year. It's just that the drop is substantial and needs to be respected. We knew the mid-January turn would be important ... and we've just got one trading day left. We'll see if the new month-new money idea will help put the trough in on Andre's 9-month cycle low and Tony's wave "i".

Once we see a bounce turn, look for similar corresponding moves in the euro, dollar, and probably gold, oil and grains. As for gold - bit of a wild card, it's always possible it makes a low and moves relatively higher since it's on its own path. While I don't rule out some of the bearish alternatives for gold, Tony Caldaro's more bullish thoughts on gold also deserve respect.