Ask no questions, I'll tell you no Fibs: a reader contributes thoughts on possible equities turn dates

Folks, I've received another communication from "Method" about analysis of turn dates such as Fibonacci-based and change-in-trend date predictions. I'll be candid, I do not have enough experience with "Method"'s track record to tell you that it should be reviewed on a par with the other analysts often featured here on this blog. Maybe this is great stuff - will see! Because I'm curious to see how this holds up, and some of my readers may be equally interested. So just take the statements below, from "Method", for whatever you think they may be worth to you:

Hello Ariel,

Interesting site you have here. I wanted to thank-you for posting some of my predictions on your blog and give you a little background information on the method that I am using.

When I did the astro study based on planetary movements at Trading the Charts, it confirmed that the markets are influenced by planetary movements. However, it was difficult to predict the direction and the movements were too short. I was interested in trying to find a longer term trend that could be confirmed and then traded. Financial astrology is too much of a cult for me as I was looking for something more scientific - astrology is not something that I really believe in.

I became interested in McHugh's phi-mate turn dates when I signed up for a free trial and last year decided to calculate the dates myself using the start of the bear market in 2007. The results were pretty amazing - the turn dates were producing market movements on a majority of occasions. Again I still wasn't able to see how long a trend lasted and some of the dates only produced a one day movement before going sideways for a month.

At the end of 2009, I decided to chart out this method to see if I could notice any patterns and be able anticipate market movements. I color coded the chart with turns that were based on a top, turns that were based on bottom and turn dates that had both a top and bottom form on the same date. See "All 2009 Fib Turn Dates"

I noticed that I had every major trend change and that it occurred right around an area where the turn dates had both a top and bottom form on the same date. More specifically, the trend change occurred on a turn date that occurred before or after the one that had a top and bottom on the same date. There were only four of these in 2009. See "2009 Fib Turn Dates"

These top/bottom turn dates also seem to act as a confirmation of the trend, whether it continues or sets up the turn date afterward.

One other thing that I noticed from the "All 2009 Fib Turn Dates" chart is that when 2 turn dates are close together, it usually means the end of a countertrend move.

What's next?

So far we have a trend change down based on the Jan 18th trend change date - this was confirmed on Jan 29th.

Since Jan 29th is a turn date, we have gone sideways and are now hovering around the same close price as Jan 29th with another turn date over the weekend on Feb 14th. Chances are that we continue down on Tuesday and may hit 1023 on the S&P next Thursday or early Friday.

Counter trend rally - this should start around the Feb 19th time frame and end on or between Feb 23 - Feb 25th. Possible bounce off the 200 day MA - it may only be a dead cat bounce.

Next Trend Change Date
March 12th to March 17th with an alternate date of March 26th if price goes lower after March 17th. Low of this first leg down may be around 944 on the S&P.
See "Feb 12th Update" and "Feb 12th Prediction" - I'm using a forward looking fib for the price levels.

Method

Feb 12 update:

Feb 12 prediction: