Big bullish moves today - here to stay? Currencies hold clues

Huge moves by the markets today! 1:00 ET could be seen as a low in the sense that the SPX moved even high afterward! Some are seeing a C=A symmetry at ~1095 if this is a wave 2 up; but we'll need confirmation by followthrough on a wave 3 down IF that's the right count! Readers know that different analysts we're featuring here have differed recently in their projections. For myself, I tend to this still being a correction within a move that has yet to point lower and bottom early March. Let's look at the US dollar for clues.

The daily and weekly of $USD are below. The dollar dropped smartly but not from a clearly peak type top. On the weekly, it's dropped back from MA resistance. But it didn't fully take out the 80.80 symmetry target either. Indicators don't confirm it's downtrending again - at least not yet. It's fair to say the dollar pulled back from being overbought, and technical resistance. This also helped gold power up by $30. But to be consistent, which is to come down - the dollar, or equities? I've already described my skepticism about the wave structure of the dollar, doubting that it's a symmetrical zigzag. I think there remains risk the dollar does probe higher. Partly for cycle reasons. Just as the cycles are likely not finished with equities either. Whatever happens this opex week, I'm braced for equities to move lower afterward. It'll be just as well if the number of bears diminishes this week, to help make another leg down work well in late February and early March.

There are other signs for equities too. The Dow and SPX face resistance at their 50 dma's, and for the SPX there's also resistance at the 1000 level, as well as 1007. The SPX monthly chart's 55 MA is at 1150.56, a sobering fact - so any high as we're thinking in May, will face stiff resistance. But that's for later. Near-term, there's even resistance at SPX 1096/1097.

The dollar ($USD) did lose short term momentum. But its drop is testing its 13-day MA. The MACD is close to rolling over but not a confirmed signal. It remains over its 34-day MA. Its 13-week MA just nudged over its 34-week MA. Yes, these things can change. But they remain reasons to think the dollar isn't necessarily going to roll to new lows, just yet.