Thursday, February 18, 2010

Euro almost done or not?! Factors to consider

Tonight the SPX futures (ES) are down 10+ points, suggesting the SPX cash index may fall under the 1096 midline of Terry Laundry's "T Theory" channel. This seems to accompany the euro falling into a low target point with positive divergence on the daily ... or is it something different? My monthly chart of the euro, $XEU, still warns that it can trace a continuation down as the wave C of a very large wave 2. The .618 retrace level it could reach may be down to around $112. That's much lower than many are expecting! I'm not saying that's locked in stone. But I'm just saying, it isn't at all guaranteed that the euro is bottoming at a symmetry target right now.

For that matter, gold is weak tonight too, and it isn't immune from more pullback either. I've covered alternative paths for it and won't repeat those here in this post. Basically, we may see the dollar spike some more, with more consequences for the euro and other tradable assets. The most likely time frame is a low next month but that could also push back somewhat into April - will just have to see.

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